Gualtieri sells live bear skins, but he must be careful that he will come looking for it
Employee of Gualtieri tries to convince the Bear to give him his skin. How will it end?
By now the MEF name should be changed to MEFE; Ministry of Economy, Finance and Esotericism. This is because today, by publishing extremely partial data on the trend of tax revenues in August, it is possible to praise rebounds all to be seen and touched, which only a magical vision of the future could justify.
Let's see the data and comments (the original press release here ):
The revenue figures for taxes paid in self-settlement, still provisional but realigned to take into account the different payment times in the two years considered, show an increase in personal income tax by 3.3% and Ires by 4.8% , while IRAP shows a negative change of 49% linked to the measure of the 'Relaunch' Decree which canceled the payment of the 2019 balance and the first installment of the 2020 advance for companies with turnover not exceeding 250 million. Net of the change in IRAP, the self-settlement revenue is therefore higher than 2019 by approximately one billion euros
and the data:
Now in Italy, normal people, not the privileged ones of the Ministry, know very well that between June and August the balance on the 2019 returns and the advance on the 2020 returns are paid, which is calculated on the basis of the 2019 returns, with different percentages of payment of down payment that depend on whether they are individuals (40%) or companies (50%). Therefore the payments of the balances and of the first partial advances are NOT due to any income made in 2020, to hopes of recovery etc, but are completely linked to 2019 income.
However, these data make a well-known guitarist say, by mistake on the MEF seat, the following:
"The data on tax revenues are added to other evidences that allow us to hope for a strong rebound in GDP in the third quarter, after the fall in the second quarter confirmed by today's Istat data which bring a very limited revision to the previous estimate", he comments the Minister of Economy and Finance, Roberto Gualtieri. “The internal consumption of Italian families in the months of July and August came back to pre-crisis levels, even exceeding them in some components in August”.
So on the basis of the advances paid on 2019 income, Garrulo Gualtieri sees a runaway recovery. We would like to point out the following:
a) the person who paid the first deposit does not necessarily pay the second deposit, partially or completely. If in November, for example, I had a decrease in annual turnover of 30% and I therefore expect self-employed income less than 50%, I will not pay the second deposit for 2020. The fact that the deposit was paid in August does not ensure which will be paid in November.
Today ISTAT reports a decline in GDP of 12.8% quarter on quarter in the second quarter, while the annual decline is 17.1%. As if that were not enough, Confcommercio has certified lower consumption for 116 billion euros, equal to 1900 euros less for every Italian citizen, much more than what happened in 2020.
Even if the month of August saw good VAT returns, especially because the Italians saved a part of the national tourism and some companies did not close to cope with cumulative orders in the three-month lockdown, to speak of "Powerful rebound" in the third quarter it is, at the very least, risky.
The signs are that, on the contrary, also due to the powerful drainage of financial resources suffered by self-employed workers and families to meet the balance-account, there will be a further economic slowdown in the third quarter. Maybe we will score + 10% compared to the previous period, but on an annual basis the decline will be very powerful.
With the failure to grant fiscal peace, Garrulo Gaultieri sings a temporary and theoretical victory, selling the bear skin of the recovery, before having killed him. Starting this month, the bear of the crisis, well alive, will start hunting Gualtieri.
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The Gualtieri article sells live bear skins, but you have to be careful that you will be looking for it comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/gualtieri-vende-pelli-di-orso-vivo-ma-deve-stare-attento-che-lo-verra-a-cercare/ on Mon, 31 Aug 2020 16:02:59 +0000.