How China makes fun of the world, Commission in the lead

China has announced that it will peak its CO2 emissions in 2030, and then, goodness to them, Start reducing emissions and achieving neutrality in 2060. Too bad President Xi has not offered details on how China can transform this. vision in reality, and an examination of China's current plans clearly shows that the goal will not be achieved without major changes that, for now, are not seen.

Following Xi's announcement of the goals at the UN General Assembly, some details on how China could move closer to its goals were given at the December 2020 Climate Ambition Summit. Here, Xi outlined the preliminary elements of the new nationally determined contribution that China is expected to present – like all other signatories of the Paris Agreement – before COP26 at the end of 2021. Xi said that China will seek, by 2030, to reduce the carbon intensity per unit of GDP of more than 65% compared to 2005 levels (compared to the current target of 60% -65% by 2030) and would increase the share of non-fossil fuels in energy consumption to 25% by 2030 (compared to the current target of 20%).

However, China's commitments raise many doubts, especially once we have seen the nation's energy mix.

Instead of reducing its dependence on coal, China put into operation 38 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired power capacity in 2020, equal to the entire coal-fired power generation capacity currently installed in Germany. While it could be argued that the pandemic has made 2020 a difficult year for China to focus on climate, it remains to be seen when and how China will reveal how it intends to peak emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

The most obvious place to look for such information is China's 14th Five Year Plan (FYP), announced at the National People's Congress in March 2021. The Five Year Plans are the main driving force of Chinese politics at all levels of government. Unfortunately, on climate measurements, the 14th FYP is not up to par. Essentially, it outlines a continuation of existing trends, rather than an acceleration of climate action. Strongly focused on the development of the manufacturing sector (particularly through strict targets on state-led innovation), the plan mentions neither a limit on coal, nor a limit on emissions.

Current estimates indicate that China's emissions will continue to increase every year, at a rate of 1% to 1.7% until 2025. It should also be noted that the 14th FYP makes several references to the development of coal, emphasizing the its "clean and efficient use". This is consistent with the broader structure of the plan, strongly geared towards ensuring China's self-sufficiency in the context of an increasingly hostile external environment and, in particular, US-China strategic competition. In other words, the 14th FYP does not include a target for reducing coal consumption, nor a clear target for peak emissions by 2025. Interestingly, the plan does not even refer to the 1,200 GW capacity target. installed solar and wind power by 2030, mentioned by President Xi in December 2020.

In the end, the Chinese plan will remain an affirmation of principle, a red herring to mock the Commission and escape the CBAM mechanism, the one that should charge imports from countries that do not share the EU's extremist climate goals. But China is the largest exporter to the European Union, do you think it won't pay enough lobbyists to fool us all, deceiving Brussels, very ready to be fooled?

Let's be serious …

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The article How China makes fun of the world, Commission in the lead comes from ScenariEconomici.it .

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This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/come-la-cina-prende-in-giro-il-mondo-commissione-in-testa/ on Mon, 03 May 2021 06:00:56 +0000.