I work in the USA: data as bad as we haven’t seen for months. Recession?
Yesterday the BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, released data on US employment and they are not positive. The number of vacant jobs in the U.S. fell by 384,000 to 9.6 million in March 2023, the lowest level since April 2021 and below market expectations of 9.775 million, indicating that the labor market could cool down. Over the month, vacancies decreased in transportation, warehouses and utilities (-144,000) but increased in educational services (+28,000). Meanwhile, the number of total hires and total separations remained relatively stable, at 6.1 million and 5.9 million, respectively. In the context of separations, the number of resignations (3.9 million) did not record significant changes, while dismissals and resignations (1.8 million) increased. Here is the related graph
The fear of losing one's job and therefore the mobility of the job itself is also growing. Resignations, i.e. the indicator showing workers' confidence in leaving a job and finding a better paid alternative, shows distrust: in March, the number of voluntary resignations fell by 129,000 units to just 3.851 million, the lowest value since May 2021. According to the BLS, the number of resignations has decreased in accommodation and food services (-178,000), i.e. waiters and cooks are not trying to improve their position
So the US sees:
- a sharply slowing labor market;
- a credit sector in severe difficulty with three bank failures, one of which was of significant size
The crisis is around the corner and it's evident by now, but the FED ignores it, or at least doesn't seem to be interested in it. we will see very soon whether it will stop the rate hike or add another quarter of a percentage point. I personally think we will see a decline in interest towards the end of the year.
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The article I work in the USA: data as bad as we haven't seen for months. Recession? comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/lavoro-negli-usa-dati-cattivi-come-non-si-vedevano-da-mesi-recessione/ on Wed, 03 May 2023 07:00:52 +0000.