Italy: GDP falls in the second quarter, as expected by the decline in energy use
Bad news for Italy: According to flash estimates, Italy's GDP contracted by 0.3% on a quarterly basis in the three months to June 2023, reducing the 0.6% expansion recorded in the previous period and underestimating market expectations of a stalemate.
The result is in line with the slowdown in European growth, as the decline in production in the primary and industrial sectors offset the moderate growth in services . We await the forecast for the construction sector,
The data also suggested that the Italian economy is showing greater vulnerability to the ECB's aggressive tightening campaign, amplifying concerns about high debt.
On an annual basis, Italy's GDP expanded by 0.6% in the period under review, marking the 10th consecutive period of growth, albeit the slowest. However, some experts expect robust growth for the Italian economy over the course of the year. Ahead of preliminary second-quarter data, the Bank of Italy forecast that Italy's GDP would expand by 1.3% in 2023, versus the 1.2% forecast by the European Commission and Prime Minister Meloni's cabinet. However, this also depends on the growth of other countries which, at the moment, seem to be at risk. Now let's see the graph:
The problem is manufacturing and its decline was quite predictable, with the impressive drop in natural gas consumption in May, by as much as 6.7%
Given that, much to Greta's anger and also the disappointment of some green Italians, the industry produces not with good deeds, but with natural gas, a drop in consumption of 6.7% could only predict a collapse in manufacturing , probably much stronger than it appears from the GDP and that we will see soon, when the final data will be provided.
The crisis begins to show itself in real numbers. We'll see if anyone has the courage to do something beyond grumbling.
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The article Italy: GDP falls in the second quarter, as the drop in energy use predicted, comes from Scenari Economici .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/italia-il-pil-cala-nel-secondo-trimestre-come-permetteva-di-prevedere-il-calo-nelluso-energetico/ on Mon, 31 Jul 2023 15:14:02 +0000.