Provocation of Pelosi in Taiwan: the seven possible Chinese reactions to the move of the US DEMs

2 August 20222 years ago babelfish

Nancy Pelosi will probably be in Taiwan today. The agenda is not specified, also for security reasons, but the stage has been confirmed and, at this moment, it constitutes a strong provocation for Beijing, which considers the island part of its national territory temporarily under the control of others. To give an example, it would be as if Xi Jinping were to visit Ukraine under Russian control tomorrow.

How could Beijing respond, even considering that external conflict may be the best way to distract from internal problems. Let's make some hypotheses, also based on the analysis of experts in the field:

could ignore the event. As RFA notes in recent days, many of the anti-American provocations that appeared at the announcement of Pelosi's possible trip have disappeared in Chinese social media. A way for the government to calm public opinion and overshadow the event. In this case the repercussions would be only diplomatic and of short duration;
minimal approach: disturbances to the Taiwanese forces in the islands of Matsu and Pengshu, extensive exercises to complicate the arrival of the Pelosi, but nothing more;
limited military approach: China may want to take control of the Taiwan Strait with limited military action against the Matsu Islands and the Pengshu Islands. Although these are fortified territories, Taiwan could not resist for long, even if the Chinese losses would not be insignificant. It would be the minimal military approach;
hybrid warfare: disruption of the Chinese navy and air force with partial blocks to traffic to Taiwan, with the interruption of airline and sea lines to the island, all accompanied by cyber-attacks against local infrastructures;
a serious attack: the actions of the Chinese aviation and navy would not be limited to blockade attempts, but would hit the island's military and civil infrastructures, also accompanied by the use of tactical missiles. In this case there would be a military response from Taiwan, the conflict would become bloody, but there would be no invasion of the island;
the invasion: alongside the direct attack there would be the landing of the land armed forces in Taiwan, or at least the attempt, preceded by attacks aimed at the beheading of the political and military leadership of the island as well as the order to attack the fifth column Communist present on the island. The result could be even partial occupation of the territory of the Chinese republic. The launch of strategic RoC missiles against Beijing and the big cities of China is also possible;
total war: in this case the international crisis escalates. Better not think about the consequences.

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The article Provocazione della Pelosi in Taiwan: the seven possible Chinese reactions to the move of the US DEM comes from ScenariEconomici.it .

This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/provocazione-della-pelosi-a-taiwan-le-sette-possibili-reazioni-cinesi-alla-mossa-dei-dem-usa/ on Tue, 02 Aug 2022 08:00:57 +0000.