Quirinale: Will Berlusconi be the next President? Or…

From February 3, 2020, the operations for the election of the new President of the Republic will begin, perhaps the most coveted position, much more than the head of the executive or a ministry, because the last two rulers of the office, under various pretexts, have transformed the 'Italy in an indirect semi-presidential regime. Furthermore, the President presides over the Superior Council of the Judiciary and appoints a third of the Constitutional Court, so his is perhaps the real weight in the Italian state, this more because of a practice in recent years than at the behest of the constituents.

However, we do not want to enter into issues of constitutional law, but stop at some general considerations on who could be the next President. A very popular game, especially after the last votes in the Senate made a different majority appear from the left one.

First of all, the electors of the President are 950 deputies and senators in addition to 58 regional representatives, for a total of 1008. the votes are with a majority of 2/3 for the first three votes and simple, 505 votes for the third.

It is already assumed that there are no 2/3 majorities, ie 673 votes, because there are no institutional figures, so everything will be played at the fourth with a majority of 505. The FI + FdI + Lega + others block counts 441 votes. PD, Leu, M5S and various, what has now become "The red-yellow", has 467, but inside there are Renzian deputies and senators who, in the last vote, did not seem aligned with the CSX. So we have 100 independent delegates. Therefore:

• No one has a majority neither in 2/3 nor simple;
• Everyone will have to build it by dealing with the non-aligned or taking votes from the opposing side.

The Berlusconi case

Silvio Berlusconi's candidacy is back in vogue after the united center-right said it was willing to support his candidacy. The center-right would lack, for a simple majority, 64 votes. Where to find them? There is talk of the votes of Italia Viva, 40, but they would not be enough. 24 would be missing. These, however, only very partially could be taken among the candidates who are currently part of the 100 "free votes", because many of these are former radical M5s who would never vote for Berlusconi. But the vote is secret, and, let's face it, two thirds of the current pentastellated deputies and senators know very well that in two years they will return to their previous activities, and we do not know how many are not sensitive to friendship with the Berlusconi family. So it is not impossible that with 230 five-star votes at stake, 15% of willing can be "extracted".

So Berlusconi's Pro are:

• the fact of being a man of weight, even outside politics;
• to be the guarantee of a change in the CSM and in the Constitutional Court;

The cons:

• a heavy past, in every sense;
• the Roman saying “In conclave, whoever enters Pope leaves cardinal”. Berlusconi left very early with his candidacy, and the risk is to burn it, finding an ostracism that prevents bridging the vote gap.

Others from the Center Left

In theory, there could be a center-left majority and quite a large one in the fourth round. The problem is that there is not a sufficiently unifying figure for the entire center-left. Pierferdinando Casini, offered by Italia Viva, seems not to have satisfied the other participants in the CSX, and at this point, without the 40 votes of the Renzians, the possibilities drop significantly. Strong figures of the PD, such as Prodi or Bersani, would not be very digestible neither to the independents nor to many M5s, nor to Renzians. In short, a nice puzzle, the solution of which could be a more "neutral" figure, such as the Minister Cartabia or some other institutional figure.

The reappointment of Mattarella

This is the most welcome solution to the PD, but it does not seem to the candidate himself. Furthermore, being liked by Letta could make her unpopular with her partner. In addition, in the votes "To be conquered" there are many who did not appreciate its position on the Green Pass. It could jump out in the event of a stalemate.

Mario Draghi?

He was the perfect candidate in February 2021, much less so now. On the one hand, there are no figures capable of replacing him, even if he has made the name of Daniele Franco. Conte supports him, and this weakens him. His popularity has waned a bit, despite the incredible media hype, and then he is a candidate for almost any position, from the leadership of the Commission to that of the IMF to that of the West as a whole. Possible, it is not known how probable;

Surprises?

If Berlusconi were, for some reason, burned, the way would open for an alternative center-right candidate, who could aim to have votes from both free votes and from others of the M5s. It could be a figure of an outspoken and sincere liberalist, or that of a high-ranking person who loyally collaborated with the first yellow-green government. Maybe even a woman.

In the latter case, we would have a presidency of the Republic which is also an expression of a political majority in the country. Because, in all other cases, we would have above all a great absentee. the Italian people.

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The Quirinale article : Will Berlusconi be the next President? Or… it comes from ScenariEconomici.it .

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This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/quirinale-berlusconi-sara-il-prossimo-presidente-oppure/ on Sun, 31 Oct 2021 16:36:38 +0000.