Real estate: prices by region and future evolution

In the last few days we have been talking about the hyperbolic trend of the Dutch and UK property markets. Two markets that show the traces of a rather mature housing bubble, which is likely to burst very soon.

First of all, let's see the average real estate prices per square meter per Italian region, from the most expensive to the least expensive, as reported by Statista:

We are very far from the assessments of the Nordic or French countries. Italian houses are very affordable, especially in the south. Only some particular enclaves, such as Val D'Aosta, Liguria or Trentino have high prices, due to the tourist presence and the scarce supply. Tuscany has high prices for the “Chianti Valley” phenomenon, ie the presence of foreign buyers, primarily English. However, nearby Umbria has very low prices.

What are the price predictions? If we evaluate Nomisma's forecasts for Idealista.it we see how the forecasts are in the number of transactions, an index of the vitality of the market.

So after the 2012 low (thanks Monti and IMU, the damage will last decades) we had a new low in transactions in 2020, and Nomisma expects some minimal recovery, but we are well below the highs of the early 2000s.

What is expected for the prices?

2021 is seen in a slight recovery for homes, but still negative for offices and commercial. a bit like the Recovery plan, all hopes go to 2022 and 2023, but a lot will depend, in our opinion, on the general economic trend. Without an increase in income there can be no increase in property prices, and this is the big bet. however we are far from the price increases of other European countries.

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The article Property: prices by region and future evolution comes from ScenariEconomici.it .

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This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/immobili-prezzi-per-regione-ed-evoluzione-futura/ on Sun, 07 Nov 2021 09:00:51 +0000.