Spain: EPP misses outright victory by a handful of seats. Either alliances or new elections

Latest update: The EPP and its ally VOX are missing a majority in the Chamber of Deputies by a handful of seats. So, at this point, either the EPP and VOX reach an agreement with at least 7-8 deputies, or we go back to elections soon. third opportunity, a government of national unity with the PSOE as well or with at least external support

Here are the data with 92% of the votes counted

The EPP cannibalized VOX and thus forfeited its chances of victory. The PSOE has even increased. The left of SUMAR takes the place of Podemos

So a nice nothing done, or almost. The PPE has not convinced enough, the right of VOXECR has disappointed.

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The first projections of seats for the Spanish elections are starting to arrive. Let's see what three different forecasting institutes tell us, remembering that the parliamentary majority takes off with 176 seats.

This is sociometrics

In this case the two PPE + VOX would have the majority only in the best projections

Here is the Dos Polls projection

This leaves a slightly better margin, but not by much

Then the GADS projection for Mediaset,

Here the majority for the PPE + VOX combination is slightly larger.

The EPP wins, but mainly at the expense of its ally VOX which is part of the ECR group. The PSOE is holding up fairly well, better than could have been expected even just a few days ago and perhaps Prime Minister Sanchez has managed to limit the damage by choosing the right day. Yet it came from a string of political defeats .

The problem for a center-right majority would be VOX (ECR, Meloni's group) which has turned out to be much weaker than previously thought. If there is no PPE+VOX majority, seats will have to be sought in the minor parties, and it will not be easy at all.

The royal count continues and, for now, with very partial results, the PPE and PSOE appear to be paired. It's going to be a long evening

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The article Spain: EPP misses outright victory by a handful of seats. Either alliances or new elections comes from Scenari Economici .

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This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/spagna-ppe-manca-maggioranza/ on Sun, 23 Jul 2023 19:46:26 +0000.