The Bryansk Mess: What Could Have Happened to the Russian Air Force?

Yesterday was a bad day for the Russian Air Force. In the Bryansk region, 50 km from the border with Ukraine, several Russian aircraft were shot down. There are images, but they are not clear, so it can be assumed that, at least, a Mil Mi 8 helicopter and a Sukhoi jet were shot down, and at most two Mil Mi 8 helicopters, a Sukhoi Su 34 (fighter – two-seater bomber ) and a Sukhoi Su 35 (air superiority fighter).

All of this took place on Russian territory, a fact that should be extremely alarming for Moscow, as it brings into question the safety of flying on its own national territory. Among other things, the attack certainly led to the loss of all the crews, a very serious loss, because pilot training costs resources and time and which shows how the planes were hit not in the tail, but in the centre, leaving no the crew the possibility of ejecting. Here are the videos of two killings

out of 35 vid mil mi 8 em

Obviously there is secrecy about how this could have happened, but Russian and Ukrainian analysts have formulated some hypotheses on the matter:

• Error of a Russian anti-aircraft battery : this hypothesis was formulated because the killings took place in Russian territory. Flight safety is ensured by the continuous exchange of IFF codes, aerial identification, between anti-aircraft batteries and aircraft. In the past, misidentifications have led to friendly fire incidents. But such an event on four aircraft is extremely unlikely.
• Infiltrate Ukrainians with Manpad . A second hypothesis is linked to the infiltration of Ukrainian commandos into Russian territory who would have shot down the vehicles with the use of manpads, missiles launched by a single operator. This is a somewhat unlikely hypothesis, especially since shooting down a highly maneuverable fighter like the Su 35 with a manpad is possible, but unlikely. Also, the missiles appear to have a horizontal trajectory, not a vertical one, like a manpad would.
• Ambush with the use of a Patriot anti-aircraft battery. Even a first generation Patriot, PAC 1 , would have the range necessary to shoot down these planes in Russian territory, given that this anti-aircraft weapon has a range of at least 90 km like PAC 1 to even go up to 160 km. A peculiarity is that one of the Mil Mi 8 seems to have been in the Mi-8MTPR-1 version, i.e. for electronic warfare, specialized in jamming anti-aircraft batteries. In this case, the Russian mission would have foreseen one/two helicopters for electronic warfare, then a Su 34 for attack, armed with air-to-ground missiles, and then a SU 35 for air cover. The Ukrainians would have sensed the move and moved a Patriot battery close to the border, hitting the mission hard. This assumption is consistent with the trajectory of the missiles, but it would mean that the Ukrainians risked rare and extremely expensive equipment (a battery can cost as much as a billion dollars) in this mission.
• Ambush with the use of long-range air-to-air missiles . In this case the previous mission profile would be repeated, but with the use, instead of a Patriot anti-aircraft battery, of long-range AIM 120 C/D AMRAAM missiles launched from fighters within Ukrainian territory. The missile does not require guidance from the aircraft after launch, has been manufactured in very large numbers and costs a fraction of a Patriot missile. It may very well have been adapted to the Mig-29, indeed it is probable that the fighters received from Poland and Slovakia, NATO countries, were already suitable for this type of weapon. The range of versions C and later is 105 km, such as to safely hit a target in Russian territory by launching from Ukrainian territory.

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The article The Bryansk Mess: What Could Have Happened to the Russian Air Force? comes from Economic Scenarios .

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This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/il-pasticcio-di-bryansk-che-puo-essere-successo-allaviazione-russa/ on Sun, 14 May 2023 08:00:51 +0000.