The ceasefire between Armenians and Azeris on the verge of rupture
The ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan contemplated by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov appears to have a very short life.
Yesterday Azerbaijan and Armenia accused each other of violating the ceasefire in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The capital of the self-proclaimed republic, Stepankert, was reportedly subjected to heavy shelling.
Azerbaijan, for its part, accused Armenia of hitting the city of Terter with artillery fire.
Russian reporters reported that warning sirens were heard in Stepankert, the capital of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region, last Saturday. Several explosions were heard in the city, signifying that the shots have reached their target.
The Azeris accuse the Armenians of having opened fire on the city of Gangia, with destruction and deaths. Meanwhile, the war goes on, with thousands of deaths between both sides. We are no longer in the small border clash, but in an extended and difficult to contain conflict.
Now alongside the military element the political discussion will return. As stated directly. The president of the republic of Artsakh, that is Nagorno Karabakh, Arayik Harutyunyan, said that, in the absence of a resumption of talks between the two parties and a ceasefire, he will ask Armenia "And other countries" for recognition:
If in the coming days #Azerbaijan does not embark on a path of finding solutions through peaceful means, I will ask the Republic of #Armenia and other countries to recognize the independence of #Artsakh
President of Artsakh, Arayik Harutyunyan #NKpeace pic.twitter.com/0PVNLMIRa9– Armenian Unified Infocenter (@ArmenianUnified) October 11, 2020
This move, obviously agreed with Armenia, would have very serious consequences in international relations. Any country that recognized the new republic would somehow commit to supporting it. However, in the absence of a diplomatic solution and with the continuation of the attacks, the president of the republic of Artsakh could ask for inclusion in Armenia, thus triggering the mutual defense pact with Russia and allowing direct Russian intervention.
For now, Moscow has limited itself to indirect aid, sending supplies and weapons through Iran and engaging the proven Wagner company alongside the Armenians. A direct intervention by Moscow would have, even only from a material point of view, a very different effect on the conflict. However Lavrov has mediated for 10 hours a truce that lasted only 24, and will certainly be annoyed at the behavior of the two sides. Joking with the Russian bear can be very dangerous.
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The article The ceasefire between Armenians and Azeri on the verge of rupture comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/il-cessate-il-fuoco-fra-armeni-ed-azeri-al-limite-della-rottura/ on Sun, 11 Oct 2020 08:02:00 +0000.