The future can be changed. If not now, when? (by Indira Fabbro)
The trend of the Italian economy never seems to change and the data confirm a substantial stagnation with low growth: in the last five years, the average has fallen to -0.60 %… Perhaps in 2030 we will recover the GDP we had in 2008.
Let's look at some data that are however partial: about 1/4 of the Italian private GDP is essentially linked to trade and tourism activities, therefore about 1/4 of the Italian added value.
The expected decline in turnover between 2019 and 2020 is 47% in the hotel sector, a 51% decline in travel agencies, a 39.8% decline in the trade fair and convention sector, 39% on parking management and 38.1% of hotel accommodation facilities. But the current economic crisis is not only the result of this pandemic year but the result of years of economic policy management without planning and achieving long-term growth objectives.
The problems are the usual: structural rigidity, chronic unemployment, innovation and competitiveness below the European average, the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita at the end of 2008 values, a public debt that continues to grow constantly, the banking system always in serious difficulty and this leads to an increase in risks for the economy and for public finances. According to rating agencies, the macroeconomic and public finance outlook is worrying and political risks and the economy are increasingly exposed to potential adverse shocks.
And what will happen in the next decade? A strategic look at the next ten years leaves little doubt: Can the future be changed, if not now, when? The inertia is strong: the next few years will be characterized by ever higher political risks and moderate economic growth. In the long term, Italy could actually accept the status quo of the German leadership triggered by this year of pandemic: our country, in the absence of important reforms, has begun a progressive sharing of risks at the European level, with a slow and implicit. At the same time, the European Union has begun to make a serious reflection of reform, a reform to improve long-term competitiveness and to attract investments, increasing potential growth vis-à-vis the US and Asian countries (primarily China). In this panorama, both national and European politics will have to learn anew to dialogue with those who create the job right from the start: entrepreneurs, those who have been alone for too long and even more so after this “black year” of pandemic. It will therefore be necessary to return to listen to their requests with greater dialogues and practical collaborations, to make decisions in a short time, to de-bureaucratize the public administration, all oriented towards the common good and social and economic development for companies and for the territory. .
Indira Smith
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The article The future can be changed. If not now, when? (by Indira Fabbro) comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/il-futuro-si-puo-cambiare-se-non-ora-quando/ on Mon, 29 Mar 2021 08:00:13 +0000.