The new Iran, which you do not expect (by C.A. Mauceri)
For decades, major world powers have argued that it was necessary to "impose" democracy and peace by force in some Middle Eastern countries. The hasty flight of "allied" troops from Afghanistan is just the umpteenth demonstration that this system does not work.
Radical changes are also taking place in neighboring Iran. After the Islamic revolution of 1979, attempts were made to impose a totalitarian regime on the country for decades. But without success: the failures have been more than the successes. The closure of borders (physical and otherwise) and the adoption of rules strictly linked to the Islamic faith have caused problems that are difficult to manage. For years the country remained isolated. Today, however, a profound change is taking place in Iran. A slow, unstoppable revolution / evolution, without any recourse to forms of violence or international restrictions. A change that affects both internal politics and relations with other countries.
The tough internal policy adopted by the government is no longer tolerated. Over time, in Iran, the way of accepting "institutional" religion has changed. https://www.upenn.edu/pennpress/book/15645.html This is confirmed by a report produced by the Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in IRAN (Iranian Group of Opinion Studies – GAMAAN – The group for the analysis and attitude measurement in IRAN) in collaboration with Ladan Boroumand, co-founder of the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran. The study, based on 23 questions and on “attitude towards religion” and demographics, was conducted with the collaboration of professors from the Dutch universities of Tilburg and Utrecht. The results were surprising. Starting with the method of data collection. Officially, in Iran, 99.5% of the population are Muslim. Convinced that this data could be the result more of the fear of openly expressing judgments against the state than anything else, the researchers decided to hold the interviews guaranteeing the anonymity of the interviewees and operating online. The researchers selected a group of nearly 40,000 people who were then weighted and balanced against the population using five demographic variables. The results proved they were right. Moreover, the very possibility of using this survey method is indicative of the change taking place in Iran: literacy rates have increased and so has access to the internet, now comparable to that of developed countries such as Italy (there are about 60 millions of users, 70% of adults are subscribed to at least one social media platform and their number is increasing). Another indicative figure is the multi-ethnic participation in the survey: Kurds, Arabs, Sufis and other groups participated.
Contrary to what the official census numbers report (99.5% of the Muslim population), only 40% of Iranians identify themselves as "Muslims". Of these, 5% claim to be Sunni Muslim and 3% Sufi Muslim. But that's not enough. Almost a tenth of the population (9%) claims to be atheists. And 7% speak generically of spirituality. 8% claim to be Zoroastrian and 1.5% to be Christian. Another figure shows "numbers" different from the official ones: according to the latest government statistics, Armenian and Assyrian Christians in Iran would be 117,700. But according to GAMAAN data, their number would be much greater: "several hundred thousand and growing over a million".
These are numbers that show that radical changes are taking place in Iran: 47% of respondents from religious families admitted to having lost their faith in the course of life (6% changed religion). To confirm these numbers (indirectly), a third of respondents said they drink alcohol (occasionally), over 60% said they did not perform the daily Muslim prayers and a similar percentage did not observe fasting during Ramadan (most part, however, stated that he did not do it for "illness"). The most surprising data, perhaps, is that concerning the critical view of the government system linked to religion: 68% of the interviewees stated that religion should be excluded from the laws. 72% said the law requiring women to wear the hijab, the Islamic headscarf, should be abolished. Despite widespread illiberal policies on religious diversity, 43% of respondents said that no religion should have the right to proselytize in public and 41% that any religion should be able to manifest itself in public.
The report's findings indicate that the most popular image of Iran differs from the real one. And that profound changes are taking place in the country. A long and slow process that began many years ago: already in 2004, Wybo Nicolai, of the Open Doors International Association, spoke of an unusual growth in the number of churches. In 2005, the United Nations instituted the Universal Periodic Review (based in Geneva) which was supposed to assess the human rights status of each nation every 4 or 5 years. During the February session, for the first time the recommendations for Iran included the treatment of "Christian converts". "We try to build relationships with diplomats as far as possible," said Wissam al-Saliby, director of advocacy for the Worldwide Evangelical Alliance. "The real news is not the number of Christians," said Johannes de Jong, director of the think tank Sallux ("Salt-Light" in Latin), affiliated with the European Christian political movement. "It is the massive secularization of Iranian society as a whole." Today, "Islam in Iran is a political system, not a faith embraced by any majority," said de Jong, who has worked with Iranian asylum seekers and opposition politicians for the past 20 years. "A free Iran would see an implosion of Islam and a very significant increase in Christianity, Zoroastrianism and atheism." "Iranians are attracted to Christianity because they think it is an integral part of the free, secular and democratic West," he added.
A radical change that the central government also had to realize. In July 2021, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) organized a three-day conference to discuss the future of Iran and the prospects for a change of government.
Throughout the country, demonstrations and protests have been taking place for some time now. Bruce McColm, director of the Institute for Democratic Strategies, spoke of "virtually unprecedented growth in those riots, with a national uprising encompassing more than 100 localities in January 2018 and another that was nearly twice as large in the November 2019 ". Protesters chanted slogans like "death to the dictator" and demanded changes of government. This message has since appeared in many rallies (on a smaller scale) and has become the focus of the boycott of parliamentary and presidential elections. The opposition to the Iranian regime of the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI / MEK) had a considerable weight. In 2018, regime leader Ali Khamenei accused the MEK of "planning for months" protests across Iran and spreading anti-government slogans. This is why the movement was banned. But the government itself has warned of the potential of the MEK to continue to operate quietly to expand "its social profile."
Over time, the subject of the protests has also changed: no longer focused on specific issues (such as government wages or the level of poverty, mismanagement of resources, water shortages and blackouts), it is now focused on radical change. of the way to run the country. In July 2021, during a conference, Maryam Rajavi, president of the NCRI, stressed that this is the driving force behind the increase in "hostility and enmity between the Iranian regime and society". An internal crisis that has brought back to the surface the terrible human rights violations in which President Ebrahim Raisi could be involved (including the massacre of 30,000 political prisoners in Iran in 1988, and the suppression of the 2019 uprising during his role of head of the judiciary).
The changes taking place appear important at the international level as well. "Iran is rethinking its role in the region," said Walter Posch, a Middle East expert at the National Defense Academy in Vienna. Suddenly, the Iranian government realized that it had far more resources than it had thought (and even what its historical opponents thought). The governor of the Central Bank of Iran revealed that, in the past 8 months, compared to 2020, the regime's non-oil exports (mostly metals and petrochemicals) have increased by 45%. And this despite international sanctions. And accessible trading reserves increased by $ 27 billion (an increase of more than 750%). Foreign policies of destabilizing Iran appear to have had no effect. Indeed, the country's role in the international scenario has grown positively.
International relations are perhaps the most surprising demonstration of the changes taking place in Iran. Even before the withdrawal of international troops from Afghanistan, Iran had begun negotiations with the representatives of the Taliban (among the Taliban, however, the radical wing seems to have prevailed and there is a heated debate on the policies adopted by the new government. along the border with Iran). Iran recently hosted a meeting with Afghanistan and Russia to discuss the political future of war-torn Afghanistan and the formation of a new government. The foreign ministers of Iran, China, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan also participated in the conference, organized by the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. An important role for all the countries present, but above all for Iran which shares a border almost 1,000 kilometers long with Afghanistan. The Iranian population is mostly Shiite. Sunni minorities mostly live near the border with Afghanistan. Maintaining good relations with the new Afghan government could mean not taking risks deriving from the Sunnis who have long complained of discrimination by the Iranian authorities also because of the crumbling infrastructure near the Afghan border, the poorest and least developed of Iran (also due to the lack of health and education facilities). "Iran wants peace with Afghanistan," Foreign Ministry spokesman Said Chatibsadeh said recently. Across the border, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid welcomed the initiative by Tehran and expressed the hope that its outcome could be useful for Afghanistan.
International meetings that not only have a geopolitical but also an economic return. On November 28, 2021, in Ashgabat, the work of the 15th summit of the Organization for Economic Cooperation (ECO) took place. During the meetings, the leaders of Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan signed a gas exchange agreement ending the 2016 blockade on gas supplies between Turkmenistan and Iran (due to complaints about unpaid oil for more than a decade first). https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/iran-signs-tripartite-gas-swap-deal-neysideing-azerbaijan-and-turkmenistan An extremely important document also from a strategic point of view: Southern Iran has the second largest oil and natural gas reserves in the world (after those of Russia). And the offshore deposits in the Caspian Sea are among the largest ever: the Chalous gas fields in the Caspian Sea represent the 10th largest reserve in the world (worth $ 5.4 trillion). This region alone could serve 52% of Europe's natural gas needs for 20 years. Non-secondary geopolitical aspect: the signed agreements saw the involvement of Russians and Chinese. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-huge-caspian-gas-geopolitical-230000700.html
Iran's initiatives on international markets are not just about gas. Today, all over the world, the transport of goods and commodities has a significant strategic importance. And Iran seems to have understood its importance. At the ECO Summit, agreements were signed to accelerate the mega-project of the International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), involving Russia, Central Asia, Azerbaijan, Europe, Turkey, Afghanistan, India and Iran. It is a 7,200 km multi-modal transit system very much in synergy with China's Belt and Rado Initiative (BRI). Also on November 28, Iran-Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan signed a memorandum of understanding to build a new railway that will join the 917 km railway that goes from Ozen (in Kazakhstan) to Gorgan (in Iran) via Turkmenistan. https://turkmenportal.com/en/blog/41967/turkmenistan-kazakhstan-and-iran-signed-a-memorandum-of-understanding-on-railway-cooperation Another important agreement (signed on 10 December) provides for the creation of an Iran-Azerbaijan-Georgia transit route to connect the Persian Gulf with the Black Sea. https://www.panorama.am/en/news/2021/12/10/Iran-Azerbaijan-Georgia-transit/2611787 Once completed, it will allow goods to move from Iran's southern ports to central Europe directly by land. On November 12, Iranian, Turkish and Emirati leaders signed a new cooperation agreement to begin work on a new corridor for the transport between the three nations of the goods arriving from the United Arab Emirates at the Iranian port Shahid Rajaee, and which are then transported by land to Turkey and from there to Europe, remaining outside the conventional sea routes. A mega project that is part of the wider INSTC which just last summer saw the first shipment arrive in India from Finland passing through Iran. https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/freight-train-begins-first-journey-from-finland-to-india-via-north-south-corridor-2021-6-24-0/
In addition to building new freight and energy transport networks between historical rivals, leaders of Turkey and Iran signed another strategic agreement regarding security on 21 October. https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2021/10/21/668933/Vahidi-Suleyman-Soylu-Iran-Turkey-interior-minister-cooperation-MoU-terrorism-immigration-borders The Iranian Interior Minister Vahidi he said: “Iran-Turkey ties will accelerate. The two states will jointly end regional instability and wave off enemy plots. The two countries will not allow others to interrupt their relations ”.
Iran and the United Arab Emirates have decided to "open a new page in Iran-United Arab Emirates relations": in December, after meeting some UAE delegates in Tehran, the Iranian president declared: "The security of the countries of the region is intertwined and Iran supports the coastal states of the Persian Gulf. There should be no obstacles in the relations between the two Muslim countries of Iran and the United Arab Emirates, and these relations must not be influenced by outsiders ”. For his part, the representative of the United Arab Emirates said: "We are the children of this region and we have a common destiny, so the development of relations between our two countries is on our agenda … we hope that a new chapter of relations with our two countries ".https: //nation.com.pk/25-Nov-2021/iran-uae-agree-to-open-new-chapter-in-relations
All this shows that profound changes are underway in Iran with new scenarios both internally and especially towards foreign countries: negotiations are underway for the creation of a permanent free trade area between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Iran. (Iran-EAEU free trade area). Once finalized, this deal could create great opportunities as it covers a market with billions of consumers. At the end of December 2021, a video conference was held between the Belarusian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Iranian Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Mining and Agriculture of Zanjan in which the parties expressed interest in mutually beneficial cooperation, presented the potential regions and agreed to exchange trade proposals of Belarusian and Iranian affairs. https://www.inform.kz/en/negotiations-on-free-trade-agreement-between-eaeu-iran-launched_a3814870
"I think if we focus our attention on the countries of the East, especially those of Central Asia, East Asia and Eastern Europe, instead of focusing on the West, we can certainly benefit from their considerable economic potential," he said. Iranian MP Mohsen Zanganeh said, "This creates a great opportunity for our economy."
Opportunities such as the reconstruction of Syria: Syria's accession to the Arab League could facilitate the willingness of Iran and Iraq to build the first railway connecting both nations on the Shalamcheh-Basra line. https://thecradle.co/Article/Investigations/4371 The idea would be to extend this line 1,570km through Iraq to the Syrian port of Latakia and Lebanon, creating a southern corridor for the New Silk Road.
Having seen all this, it becomes clear that perhaps Iran is no longer the closed and backward country that it was thought to be. Although with a delay of decades, the country has realized that it is better to put extremisms aside and start multipolar cooperation initiatives. Today, in Iran, radical changes are underway both in terms of internal politics and beyond the borders that could make this country a protagonist of the scenarios for the coming years.
C. Alessandro Mauceri
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The article The new Iran, which you do not expect (by CA Mauceri) comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/il-nuovo-iran-che-non-ti-aspetti-di-c-a-mauceri/ on Mon, 10 Jan 2022 15:00:04 +0000.