The statistician Maruotti: they closed us on the basis of unreliable data from Rt
L 'Italy "as" red, but the parameters underlying these assessments are hazy and non-transparent. . The Government, on the basis of indications and calls from the Cts – Scientific Technical Committee, some days he lives an almost closing general that recalls the days spent exactly one year ago.
365 days later, despite the hope placed in the chants from the balconies to the cry of 'everything will be fine', night seems to have fallen in the country again. And so it will be at least until Easter. If tomorrow there is less certainty about something today dropped from above decisions can be said. For example, new doubts emerge about the method applied by the so-called experts to advise or not to policy makers on the restrictive measures to be adopted.
The focus needs to be done in this case the famous index RT, which of the 21 parameters used by technicians to decide the color of the regions passages is perhaps the most considered. Just the use made of this data has been challenged directly by Professor Antonello Maruotti, Professor of Statistics at the University Lumsa, so that he spoke with Fabio and Francesco Duranti Vergovich. Here is the speech by Prof. AntonelloMaruotti to "special day." “There is a problem in managing data related to the pandemic. That is, the decisions that are made are made on a series of indicators that are monitored. Of which the famous RT, this index which is now on everyone's lips, plays a primary role. And unfortunately, but this always happens when relying on a statistical model, there are several ways to estimate RT. As the model changes, we will obtain completely different RT estimates and this is what happens ”. Furthermore, there is a problem of calculation parameters based only on the first Lombard data from a year ago, and subsequently never updated. Yet the CTS; luckily changed, use this risk assessment, a little fake, to open or close Italy.
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The article The statistician Maruotti: they closed us on the basis of unreliable data from Rt comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/lo-statistico-maruotti-ci-hanno-chiuso-sulla-base-di-dati-non-affidabili-di-rt/ on Wed, 17 Mar 2021 09:00:05 +0000.