Ukraine: an opening for negotiations
KYIV, UKRAINE – FEBRUARY 25: (EDITORIAL USE ONLY MANDATORY CREDIT – "PRESIDENCY OF UKRAINE / HANDOUT" – NO MARKETING, NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS – DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS) Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy holds a press conference on Russia's military operation in Ukraine , on February 25, 2022 in Kyiv. (Photo by Presidency of Ukraine / Handout / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
In the long interview with Ukrainian President Zelensky on ABC News there are some parts that, perhaps in a very optimistic way, seem to be an opening to Russian requests which, until yesterday, were not acceptable.
let's see the essential points:
- Zelensky said he was willing to compromise with regard to the breakaway regions of Donesk and Lugansk;
- Zelensky no longer places freedom to apply for NATO access as a sine qua non, especially after NATO has refused to intervene directly. Zelensky said that "NATO is afraid of direct confrontation with Russia";
- Crimea does not appear to be off the table.
In fact, we consider that both the autonomous republics and Crimea were already out of Kiev's control. Accepting that this status is formalized is a concession, but between the waged war, with bombed civilians, and the acknowledgment of a real objective state, well, the latter comes to be an acceptable cost, at least in the short term.
BREAKING: Ukraine is ready for negotiations with the Russian Federation on key points, but wants to receive a "clear and specific, legally binding set" of guarantees for its security in a situation where NATO has openly announced that it will not accept Ukraine.
– ASB News / MILITARY
(@ASBMilitary) March 8, 2022
The renunciation of NATO is much more expensive for Kiev. The neutrality between the two blocs that Putin would like becomes something indigestible precisely because of what happened. At the same time, NATO proved to be a hesitant, weak bloc, especially in its European components (apart from the United Kingdom). Ultimately it may be digestible for Ukraine not to join NATO, if it is given the opportunity to defend itself effectively, as it has shown it can, perhaps by integrating armament and intelligence with NATO. A more Swedish than Finnish situation, also because the size of Ukraine and the quality of its people have shown that, with adequate means, it can very well defend itself. So there may be agreements, but of collaboration, information exchange, training, but I will not be part of NATO. He doesn't need it.
Tank battle in the streets of Ukraine. Footage was taken reportedly after a successful ambush on Russian forces.
Date and location unknown as multiple sources state Mariupol, Kyiv and Kharkiv as the place this occurred. #Ukraine #Ukrainian #UkraineRussianWar pic.twitter.com/KQ2UpYrV5J
– Ukraine war report (@ Gadhwara27) March 8, 2022
Now we have to see what Russia will do. It is clear that he wanted to remove Ukraine's access to the sea: will he agree to go back and return those territories? Now there is a people who oppose and deeply hate the Russians, and this certainly cannot be erased from history. Trust is broken, and it can never be rebuilt, with what follows. We will have a second Poland: a nationalist country and firmly opposed to its neighbors. If anything, the curiosity is what Germany will do: now it seems awakened from lethargy, but will it remain? =
Thanks to our Telegram channel you can stay updated on the publication of new articles of Economic Scenarios.
The article Ukraine: an opening for negotiations comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/ucraina-uno-spiraglio-per-le-trattative/ on Tue, 08 Mar 2022 21:15:40 +0000.