US jobs: job vacancies are down sharply. Eventually the “Non-recession” begins to feel in the labor market
The restrictive policies of the Fed are starting to make themselves felt on the labor market, giving the signal that it will not be a recession for now, but that it will start to be very shortly. The number of job vacancies in the United States fell by 605,000 from the previous month to 10.7 million in June 2022, the lowest in nine months and below market expectations of 11 million . This was the third consecutive decline in vacancies after the record high in March. The largest job losses were recorded in the retail trade (-343,000), wholesale trade (-82,000) and public and local education (-62,000). Meanwhile, an estimated 4.2 million Americans quit their jobs in May, a minimal change from the previous month, and the so-called dropout rate remained unchanged at 2.8%.
If we look in a broader perspective, we see that the supply of jobs is still far above the levels of 2019.
Given that the demand for labor is still very high and that core inflation, ie linked to wage dynamics, is particularly high, there will still be no major effects on wages. But if interest rates continue to rise and thus depress the economy, this curve will go down very quickly. A simple weakening could quickly turn into a collapse.
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Article Jobs USA: Job offers are down sharply. In the end, the “Non-recession” begins to be felt on the job market comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/lavoro-usa-le-offerte-di-lavoro-sono-in-calo-secco-alla-fine-la-non-recessione-inizia-a-sentirsi-sul-mercato-del-lavoro/ on Wed, 03 Aug 2022 06:00:16 +0000.