USA: Unemployment at a normal level before the summer. Just spend

US unemployment forecast data seems to lead to a numerical solution to the problem before next summer:

Job applications will therefore return to below 500,000 in May, with expectations to go below 300,000 by June. The US economy, for better or worse, is restarting. How? To the sound of public spending.

We have shown how the three combined plans of the Trump-Biden era come to be equal to 6 trillion dollars, more than 1/3 of the US GDP. Our asphyxiated "Recovery fund", full of words alone, is 4% in seven years., …

Manufacturing expectations are skyrocketing, with a PMI index of 60, therefore with excellent industry growth expectations.

The danger of all this extra spending, partly in monetized debt, is inflation, which has actually risen slightly:

For now, however, values ​​are under control, those who speak of hyperinflation or even true inflation should remember that we have inflation above 5%. This is just a small warming in prices, linked both to external factors and, fortunately, to the Phillips curve that seems to have awakened, however to be followed carefully.

The other, more imminent problem is the trade balance

This is becoming increasingly unbalanced, with a deficit of $ 71 billion in February. This value, combined with the monetization of some of the debt, could lead to a devaluation of the US currency, an effect that Biden is probably seeking voluntarily.

What is Europe doing? it produces words and watches.

---

---

The US article : Unemployment at normal level before the summer. Just spend comes from ScenariEconomici.it .

---

This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/disoccupazione/ on Sat, 24 Apr 2021 10:20:04 +0000.