Voters who consider themselves Democrats in the USA are at an all-time low

A Gallup poll released Friday reveals that the percentage of Americans who will identify as Democrats in 2023 has hit an all-time low, if “leaning” independents are excluded.

Only 27% of Americans self-identify as Democrats, the lowest figure in the party's history according to the poll. That said, Republicans' self-identification also reached 27%, though it didn't mark the lowest figure in the party's history, which dates back to 2013 when just 25% of Americans identified as such . The previous record low for Democrats was reached in 2017 and 2015 with 29%.

Independents give Republicans a slight edge in party preferences

All Gallup poll respondents who identify as independent are then asked whether they lean more toward the Republican Party or the Democratic Party. Last year, independents who said they were Republicans slightly outnumbered those who said they were Democrats. As a result, 45% of US adults identify as Republicans or lean towards the Republican Party, while 43% are Democrats or lean towards the Democratic Party.

The 2023 data is similar to 2022, when Republicans had a one-point advantage (45% to 44%). There are only a few moments when Republicans have been ahead

In most years, Democrats and moderate Democrats outnumbered Republicans and moderate Republicans, although the two party groups were tied in 2002, 2003 and 2011.

Conservatives and moderates are tied for top ideological identification

In addition to measuring affiliation with a major political party, Gallup asks Americans in each poll to describe their political views on a spectrum from liberal to conservative. In 2023, on average, 36% of U.S. adults will describe their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 25% as liberal. Ideological identification has changed little in recent years; the latest figures essentially correspond to the averages of the last 10 years.

From a long-term perspective, the most significant change has been the increase in liberal identification, which was less than 20 percent from 1992 to 2000 and in 2002 and 2004. Both conservatives and moderates have seen a slight decline in recent two decades, but the decline has been greater for moderates than for conservatives since the trend began: Moderates were the largest group from 1992 to 2002.

As Gallup has previously documented, the rise in liberal identification reflects big changes in how Democrats describe their political ideas. Last year, 53% of Democrats identified themselves as liberal, 35% as moderate and 11% as conservative. While similar to the 2022 level, 53% liberal is up from 43% in 2013, 32% in 2003, and 25% in 1994 (the first year Gallup analyzed ideology by identification party).

Nearly three-quarters of Republicans, 73% (essentially unchanged from 2022, but also increasing over the long term), call themselves conservatives, while most of the rest, 22%, say they are moderates.

Following the normal pattern for independents, the majority of this group, 48%, identify as political moderates, while 30% are conservative and 20% are liberal.

Implications of survey results

As of early 2024, the parties are very close in terms of identification and political orientation . However, Democrats are clearly in a weaker position than in any recent election year. This is due to the new low percentage of U.S. adults who identify as Democrats and Republicans' advantage in party identification. In the last four years of presidential elections, Democrats have had at least a five-point advantage in party identification. In each of those years they won the popular vote, although Republican Donald Trump won the 2016 election based on the Electoral College vote.

In this presidential election year, the percentage of political independents is likely to decline, as it has in six of the last seven presidential election years (all but 2012), due to the intense focus on national politics and the two major parties. However, even with a slight decline during the election year – ranging from two to five points – independents will remain the largest and probably most persuasive group of voters. In what promises to be a close electoral competition, it is essential that each party, but especially the Democrats, nominate a candidate capable of attracting independent voters. But both Trump and Biden are two very important figures

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The article Voters who consider themselves Democrats in the US at an all-time low comes from Economic Scenarios .

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This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/dem-al-minimo-storico-gallup/ on Sun, 14 Jan 2024 15:49:12 +0000.