All the (anti-Germany) convergences of Meloni and Macron. Fabbri’s analysis (Domino)
How will the Meloni government move on Ukraine, Russia, the EU, the USA, China and beyond. The analysis by Dario Fabbri, director of the geopolitical monthly "Domino", heard by Marco Orioles
The Italian-French relations that will develop along the tracks of the Quirinal Treaty, in order to balance the weight of cumbersome Germany and to prevent the return to austerity care policies in Berlin; a relationship with the US considered "satisfactory" which will allow us to maintain a convinced Atlanticist line, also with regard to the Ukraine dossier; continuity with the Draghi government in the anti-Chinese approach.
This is the possible direction of the foreign policy of the new Italian government according to Dario Fabbri, analyst and editor of Domino magazine.
Fabbri also urges not to dwell too much on personalities and ideological positions, which in foreign policy count "essentially zero", but instead to look at the heart of the Italian national interest.
Fabbri, Giorgia Meloni premier's first international meeting was with Macron. How do you see the dialogue between antipodal personalities developing in perspective, such as the French president on the one hand and the leader of a party who a year ago voted against the ratification of the Quirinal Treaty?
Personally, I believe that ideological positions regarding the management of foreign policy essentially count for zero. Meloni has often had anti-French as well as anti-German sorties, in the sense that he has often criticized the industrial policy of France in our country and the excessive ties with Paris which in his opinion place us in a subordinate position also through the Quirinal Treaty.
Having said that, I believe that, beyond the likes or dislikes, all this does not weigh in itself at the level of statements. What matters is the French willingness to maintain a close link with us, obviously with France as the majority shareholder and we as minority shareholders, in order to increase their weight as much as ours in reference to Germany.
In short, it should be a passage of mutual interest for Italy and France beyond the differences and competition which are all very real issues, from industry to North Africa to the Sahel etc. But Rome and Paris need each other to stem above all the possible return of austerity. I do not know if Meloni has already passed this phase and is already towards the acceptance of this paradigm, of this relationship with Paris, what is certain is that President Mattarella is very keen for this to happen.
On which dossiers can or should synergies be promoted between Italy and France?
There are certainly common interests between France and Italy, starting with the common one to stem the German power that is proving, as inevitable, unilateral, see for example the allocation of 200 billion euros by the Berlin Chancellery to shield local companies with expensive energy. Another common interest is to prevent the return of austerity wanted by Germany and which is functional to its interests. Then the French want us in the Sahel now, while they didn't want us before, to replace some of their soldiers who are leaving. This may also be in our best interests, provided that we then prove ourselves capable of handling the situation to our advantage.
To what extent will the Meloni government be able to confirm or strengthen the pro-US and pro-Nato line of the Draghi government?
It seems clear to me that Meloni considers our relationship with the United States satisfactory and especially that he is aware that it cannot be changed, as I wrote in the last Domino editorial. Our position towards Ukraine will therefore remain, I think, the same as the previous government. Much will depend on the developments that will take place: in particular on what may happen on the front of the energy crisis. But I do not think that it is possible for the Italian side to turn away from the Atlanticist position, because it would be a turning point that would go beyond our capacity for impact; but above all when our government intends to restructure the relationship with Germany and partially with France, it certainly cannot succeed if it also has the United States against it.
Will the Meloni government maintain or intensify the anti-Chinese position of the Draghi executive?
I imagine that the Meloni government retains the anti-Chinese position that was also the case of the Draghi government. I don't know if it will intensify it, but there will simply be continuity from that point of view.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/governo-meloni-macron-convergenze-fabbri/ on Tue, 25 Oct 2022 09:26:42 +0000.