All the complex challenges of the government’s energy plan. Tiscar’s analysis
The speech by Raffaele Tiscar, member of the board of Redo Sgr and former head of cabinet at the Ministry of the Environment, as part of the in-depth analysis launched by Start Magazine on the guidelines of the Minister of Ecological Transition, Roberto Cingolani
At his first test in Parliament I recognize the new minister Cingolani a pass vote. In the exposition of his program he touched on all (or almost) the themes he will face in the coming months, trying to show (but not too much) what his approach will be. Not generic, but not too precise, such as to generate easy oppositions to the hypothesized solutions, it gave the impression of having a minimum of long-term vision, but without giving evidence of the conditioning that in the long path of the transition will weigh in the balance between costs and benefits. of every decision. Basically he got away with it and, I think, he couldn't do more, at least for now.
That said, the challenges (starting with the management of the very poor inheritance left to him by his predecessor who made the war on plastics his characterizing figure) are announced to be very complex and will require clearer and more divisive choices than those revealed by his words.
Without presuming to exhaust the list, I limit myself to those which I believe to be the most relevant.
THE COSTS OF THE TRANSITION
Admitted (but we will have to begin to discuss it calmly without tearing up our clothes) that continuing to raise the decarbonization target to dates far ahead in time, without at the same time asking the question of how to achieve it, has some political sense, I believe the time has come that we also begin to discuss the implicit and explicit costs that the "green" change will entail and who they will bear, so as to start putting their hands on effective amortization tools. Let's think about electric mobility: now that we have also lost the only national automotive champion, how does the government think it will be able to guarantee the current employment levels? Our country, still well positioned in the components related to the heat engine, how will it have to react to the changes that are expected in the European market, and not only, so that skills and jobs do not go up in smoke? The same could be said in the field of boilers, lighting systems and so on. Germany has already set up a fund for economic support for workers made redundant due to the production of electric vehicles, other European countries are planning intense reskilling programs in advance of new green productions. In Italy, nothing of this is on the agenda yet, we don't really talk about it. Could n't Environmentally Harmful Subsidies be used for this purpose? Isn't this also a relevant aspect of the "transition"?
THE GOVERNANCE
The issue has been mentioned, but not in the problematic aspects and in the solutions that the government intends to prepare to solve it efficiently. First of all, the Minister does not even mention the Regions that share with the Government the responsibility for permitting and EIAs for most of the plants to be built, as well as planning. How do you plan to divide the objectives established at national level among the 20 regions, starting with the production of energy from renewable sources? And what rebalancing mechanisms do we think of to cope with the political differences that will surely arise against very challenging objectives at the state level? But even at the inter-ministerial level, governance is not clear: just think of the issue of landscape authorizations, a prerogative of the Superintendencies, a long-standing issue that escapes any government, even if it is willing to simplify procedures that are not always transparent: how do you plan to solve the problem? Other governments in the past have tried to introduce the institution of silent consent for landscape opinions, but without success. Cingolani says nothing. Maybe he doesn't think it's a problem. Lucky him.
INTEGRATED VISION OF POLICIES
In Italy, formulating policies by clarifying the context in which they will impact, explaining the methods of implementation and evaluating the impacts, including economic ones, that will result in other sectors is not usual, simply because this approach is not part of the modus operandi of our bureaucracy, even that more enlightened. The Pniec was a first attempt in this direction, not without the possibility of improvement. Some tools (cost / benefit analyzes, impact assessments, etc.) in the public sector are scarcely used, if not, sometimes, completely unknown. Often, simpler and more usual, it is reduced to compiling lists of projects, more or less valid, to be drawn out on the occasion of emerging financing opportunities. But, even in this case, usually, the proposals are not at a design level such as to make the construction works and consequently the projects unsuitable for the use of the economic resources that become available over time. There is no rating on the design quality, the works are fragmented to make them easier to finance… An example for everyone: the works necessary for the reduction of hydrogeological risk: an all-Italian disaster to which an effective systemic solution has not yet been found. The minister cites the reconstruction of the Morandi bridge as a virtuous example, but the exact opposite is true: that work was able to be completed in record time by virtue of the numerous exceptions to the current legislation on procurement. Rather, it is the emblem of a pathology, not of excellence!
It can be understood that haste does not allow for a fine job, but for the use of the Recovery Fund or the Pnrr the risk of doing a rambling job is high. Some examples?
The first concerns the digital transition, forced to deal with the spread of 5G, which depends on the removal of the absurd power limits imposed by current legislation on radio transmission stations. The initiative of the legislative change is placed in the head of the ministry of Cingolani, but strangely this has not even been mentioned among the things to do. Why?
And then, is a proposal for the construction of a smart grid more "public interest" than a district heating network? Wouldn't it be useful to finally clarify which interpretations and which analysis tools will be adopted for the inclusion of types of projects in the drafting of a plan that is intended to be adopted as strategic for the conversion of the Italian system?
Finally, I can understand that talking about hydrogen has become very "sexy" and fashionable, but just imagining such a quantity of biomass to make hydrogen a key factor in the renewal of the entire transport system in ten years does not make us smile for the his patent naivety?
I'll stop here, even if there is more to say for the relevance that the ecological transition will have on our future.
I reject the logic of hurrying as long as it is, because it has been for decades that in the name of haste there has been no change of approach in the governance of public affairs and its processes and because it is legitimate to expect a change of pace from the "government of the best". Let's hope that time will prove me wrong, and give the new Minister a praise: I would be the first to be happy. It would also be the sign of a changing country and change is life.
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START MAGAZINE INSIGHTS ON MINISTER CINGOLANI'S PLANS
Because I will press on green hydrogen and nuclear fusion (no batteries). Word of Cingolani
Here are Cingolani's plans to renew renewables
All the nuclear criticisms of environmentalists against the ecological minister Cingolani
Green hydrogen, renewable and nuclear. Cingolani's ideas read by Tabarelli
Here's what I disagree with the government's energy plan. Speak Sapelli
All the contradictions of Cingolani on batteries, nuclear and hydrogen. Silvestrini's analysis
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/ecco-perche-il-piano-di-cingolani-e-ambizioso-e-complesso-da-attuare-parla-tiscar/ on Sun, 21 Mar 2021 06:45:35 +0000.