All the difficulties of Biden’s energy plan
Biden's arrival brings with it great expectations, but it won't be easy to undo Trump's moves and make his climate plan a reality. Extract from an article by Gaetano di Tommaso published in ENERGIA 4.20
“In the last televised debate before the election, held in late October, Joe Biden defined global warming as an 'existential threat to humanity', communicating his concern for climate change. Shortly thereafter, in what was immediately considered one of the most memorable moments of the evening, Trump asked Biden if he intended to dismantle the US oil industry. The Democratic candidate replied – firmly – that yes, he would abandon it to move on to something else; the ultimate goal, he hastened to add, was to complete the transition to renewable energy. The opponent took the ball, looking in the room and calling directly the voters of some of the states whose economy is linked to the fossil fuel sector: "Texas, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma and Ohio," asked the President, "there will you remember his words when you go to vote? " The answer given by the polls is not what Trump expected ”.
The ambitious democratic energy and climate agenda will have to cross a favorable combination of factors to be successful. According to Gaetano Di Tommaso (Sciences Po), Biden's mandate will be decisive in understanding whether the United States will be able to gain leadership in the energy transition. The analysis published in ENERGIA 4.20 retraces the strategic options and possible risks for the new Presidency deriving from the internal framework ( paragraph 1 ) and the international framework ( paragraph 2 ).
Investments in low-carbon technologies, carbon-neutral electricity generation by 2035, net zero emissions by 2050 and environmental justice: it won the most ambitious energy agenda ever
The candidate won "with the most ambitious energy agenda ever, with a program that includes approximately two trillion dollars of investments in alternative sources, to be spent primarily on transport and construction, and the achievement of 100% clean energy and zero net emissions no later than 2050, to which is added the intermediate objective of carbon neutrality in the production of electricity by 2035 ”.
“The change of direction (…) could not be sharper on paper. In practice, Biden's statement, even if solid in numbers, hides behind it a country deeply divided ideologically and conditioned – from an energetic as well as a political point of view – by different and often opposing realities, needs and objectives that risk harness the legislative action in the next four years and between which Biden will have to be good at extricating himself ”.
The political-institutional knot represents the first challenge: with a weak majority in the Chambers, Biden will have to use executive powers to re-enter the Paris Agreement
The analysis focuses first on the home front. The opposition in Congress and the powers of the executive ( par. 1.1 ) are two key points for the new administration. Without a strong majority, in fact, at least until the next elections, Biden will not have the opportunity to make profound changes to the regulatory environment inherited from Trump, however “he will be able to use the same executive and administrative tools to change course and cancel the moves of his predecessor. Columbia Law School's Sabin Center for Climate Change Law has identified more than 150 possible measures that Biden will be able to enforce to combat climate change.
The limits of the White House ( par. 1.2 ) are also found in the relationship with the States. Everyone remembers the case of California which, under Trump, “challenged the relaxation of the emission thresholds for vehicles and chose to maintain its standards – more stringent – and even make them binding. The activism of the states risks making the Administration's action even less rapid and effective – and provides clear proof of the crisis of governability that is going through the US system ”.
In critical periods the 'checks and balances' of the US constitution can paralyze legislative activity and offer a very active role to the judiciary
The difficulties of recovery and the risk of internal divisions also count on the energy-climate activism of the new President ( par. 1.3 ). If he manages to mediate between the most extreme positions in Parliament, "the very urgency of agreeing new incentive and spending packages could open a window for Biden to approve part of the investments envisaged for the energy transition in Congress. particularly the infrastructural ones and the electrification of transport, in the event that the Democrats manage to insert them in the bills for the revival ”.
In addition to possible internal splits in the party, the administration will also have to pay attention to 'exogenous' factors, such as technology, which could condition Biden's energy agenda and force the administration to adapt to unexpected scenarios ( par. 2.1 . The technological factor and market trends ).
The start of the energy transition in the leading country in the O&G sector will have a huge impact in international markets and in the geopolitics of energy
The shale revolution made the United States a world leader in O&G. And, as often happens, technological and market forces place the economy on a different trajectory from that desired by politics. "It is difficult to imagine (…) that the next President of the United States could be really willing to let fall, and indeed to sink, an asset as strategic as that of the fossil industry, with an economic weight – in terms of employment and GDP – enormous for the country (9) ".
“Whether or not to remain the global leader in the fossil sector continues, among other things, to obviously have important geopolitical implications for the United States” (2.2 The geopolitical aspect) . Biden's energy and climate agenda, in fact, could have effects on energy relations between Brussels and Moscow, on dialogue with oil-producing countries (see Iran, Libya and Venezuela) and on the balance in the Middle Eastern area led by Saudi Arabia. .
It is difficult to anticipate whether in the next few years "the United States will really be able to launch itself as an international leader on climate and clean energy, changing everything in order not to change anything, that is, remaining the engine of the energy sector, or if it will continue to bet on already existing paradigms".
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/biden-piano-energia/ on Sun, 03 Jan 2021 07:00:44 +0000.