All the energy challenges of Africa
Energy demand in Africa is expected to increase by a third in the next 10 years. This is what the continent must do to meet the needs of the population and decarbonise consumption
Africa is facing an energy trilemma: how to ensure that energy supplies are sufficient, affordable and sustainable. The continent is trying to industrialize and develop, at the same time that the world is trying to decarbonise itself and Africa's population is set to grow.
The good news is that Africa has enormous renewable energy potential, but tapping it to its full potential will be as challenging as it is necessary. Currently, 600 million people across the African continent still lack access to energy. As energy production increases, so does population, and therefore demand. It is predicted that by 2050, one in four people on the planet will be in sub-Saharan Africa.
HOW IS THE DEMAND FOR ENERGY IN AFRICA
With population growth and industrialization of the region, African energy demand is projected to increase by a third over the next 10 years. Meeting this projected energy demand will require a tenfold increase in power generation capacity by 2065.
The need is huge, but so is the opportunity. The continent is an ideal habitat for the production of solar, wind, hydroelectric and geothermal energy. In response to this market development opportunity, international interests have poured into the African energy market, seeking to gain a foothold in what is surely a rapidly growing sector.
For years Russia and China have battled for dominance in Africa's emerging energy markets, and now Europe's growing need for solar energy is driving European developers more and more into the Sahara, in search of sun and vast tracts of land.
But international development experts argue that development of the African energy sector must come from Africa at the national level. In a recent editorial, Sebastian Sterl, senior research associate at the World Resources Institute, identifies 5 key challenges for African leaders to solve this energy trilemma and take control of their own clean energy development.
THE COSTS OF RENEWABLES FOR AFRICA
While in other parts of the world renewable energies have proven to be competitive and cheap, this will not necessarily be the case in Africa. According to Serl, “the relatively high risks investors assign to most African countries compared to the rest of the world means they require a higher return to justify investments. This means power plants have to charge customers a higher price per kilowatt-hour to break even.” Solving this challenge will require a strategic approach to de-risking these investments so that energy remains affordable for cash-strapped consumers.
THE CHALLENGE OF RENEWABLE INTERMITTENCE FOR NETWORKS
This challenge is far from exclusive to the African continent. No matter where you are in the world, the sun doesn't shine 24/7, and the wind doesn't always blow. Wind and solar energy are produced according to weather conditions, unlike fossil fuels, which can be produced and consumed according to demand.
Variable energy therefore puts strains on electricity grids and requires resilient and intelligent grids that can handle the rise and fall of the supply and demand sides, which do not always coincide. Overall, African countries lack this type of infrastructure. Many African grids are already underperforming, and doubling down on wind and solar energy without properly sustaining and developing them could make energy security problems worse, rather than improve them.
THE LINK BETWEEN THE ELECTRICITY NETWORK AND INDUSTRY
Worldwide, the financial success of electric utilities depends on large commercial and industrial customers with reliable demand. This poses a challenge in countries where these sectors are underdeveloped. “Many sub-Saharan African countries lack a solid industrial base,” Serl writes.
“Meanwhile, utilities need to connect a large number of energy-efficient customers, whose electricity bills will be low. All this must take place with electricity prices that are accessible”. This will be a major challenge, as industrial growth requires a strong network, and a strong network requires a strong industry. It will take strong political support and economic incentives to turn this vicious circle into a virtuous one.
THE REPLACEMENT OF FOSSIL SOURCES
Africa will need to electrify and switch fuels to decarbonise. But many homes still rely on biomass and industrialization is only just beginning. Thinking beyond what is usually the next phase of development – an increase in fossil fuel consumption and an increase in gas-powered transportation to create a strong economy – will require new ways of conceptualizing the transition to green energy.
This is also a sensitive area on the ethical front, as many leaders in the developing world believe that their countries should be given the opportunity to develop their economies, as they already have in the developed world, before they are asked to start a green energy transition they cannot afford.
OIL AND GAS RESERVES
The African continent is home to oil and gas reserves that could provide an essential boost to local economies. Many African leaders insist that they should be allowed to capitalize on these resources without pressure from countries that have already grown rich off their own fossil fuel reserves and are now poised to decarbonise.
As the world moves away from oil and gas, African countries "risk of being left with assets stranded if they invest in new oil and gas infrastructure." Furthermore, studies show that developing African oil and gas will not solve the continent's energy poverty.
The irritating thing is that 89% of the LNG infrastructure under construction in Africa needs to be exported to Europe to save the old continent from its dependence on Russian gas,” said Joab Okanda, Pan African Advocacy Advisor at COP27 2022 by Christian Aid. “We cannot be the petrol station of Europe. Otherwise, we will bring down the climate."
THE IMPORTANCE OF DECARBONIZATION FOR AFRICA
Nowhere is the importance of decarbonisation more evident than in Africa. Seven of the ten countries most vulnerable to climate change are located in Africa and, therefore, will be disproportionately affected by each additional tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent released into the atmosphere.
The unfairness of this situation cannot be overstated: historically, Africa has contributed just 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, but allowing African nations to have their turn to pollute freely is obviously not a solution.
Africa is in a unique position, and is entering a very uncertain era for the global energy sector, creating major policy planning challenges. If the challenges highlighted so far are all considered and planned properly, the continent could exploit an important opportunity for clean energy. The time is right for Africa to change its role from victim to resilient continent to climate leader.
(Article published in Energia Oltre )
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/africa-domanda-energia-aumento/ on Sat, 13 May 2023 05:05:45 +0000.