All the EU’s difficulties in the Sahel
What are the scenarios that open up for the European Union in the Sahel after the military coup in Mali. Bernardo Venturi's analysis on Affariinternazionali
The airports of Bamako and Niamey have been crowded with soldiers in recent weeks. The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (Minusma) is leaving the country, with thousands of personnel and hundreds of vehicles on the move, not without risks and complex logistics. In fact, six incidents have already occurred since the peacekeepers left their base in northern Kidali on October 31 to make the estimated 350km journey to Gao, resulting in a total of 39 injuries.
A final blood tribute from the mission: with 310 deaths in 10 years it is the second deadliest in history, second only to Unifil in Lebanon (332 fallen). The withdrawal of the mission was requested by the military junta led by Colonel Assimi Goïta, in power since August 2020 after deposing President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta in a coup .
The military junta in Mali, after having thrown out several European diplomats and military contingents, primarily French, has therefore also renounced Minusma, although it does not seem capable of adequately replacing them. The UN mission is leaving 12 bases in the center and north of the country, in addition to the main one in Bamako. The lack of collaboration from the military junta and the worsening of security conditions have accelerated the withdrawal and are not, however, allowing a smooth handover to the Malian authorities.
In this vacant space, the groups of the Strategic Permanent Agreement in northern Mali – predominantly Tuareg – declared to have occupied a base in the Kidali region immediately after the evacuation of 31 October. In fact, another critical issue remains in the relationship with the Azawad groups. The relationship with the military junta has progressively deteriorated, leading to direct armed clashes and further putting into crisis the 2015 Algiers peace agreement which had put an end to the war with the separatist north.
However, the management of space and bases in northern Mali has deeper roots. After intervening alongside the Bamako government at the end of 2012 with Operation Serval, France has never actually passed the baton to the Fama, the Malian army, keeping crucial spaces for itself. This approach, as well as other post-colonial approaches in the political, social and cultural spheres, have fostered an anti-French and anti-Western sentiment on which Russian propaganda has had an easy time playing an incendiary role in recent years.
THE EU LACKS A RELIABLE PARTNER IN SAHEL
After years of underlining the Sahel's priority and looking for credible partners, the EU and European states literally don't know what to do. Until the 2020 coup in Mali, Brussels had identified Bamako as the central partner for the region. But the two coups d'état in the country, and above all the arrival of the Wagner Group mercenaries, have created a considerable diplomatic embarrassment , in particular for the EUTM military training mission: stay at the risk of crossing paths with the Russians or leave the country? After various hesitations and with Burkina Faso marked by two coup d'états in 2022 and by an out-of-control institutional and security crisis, the EU has turned its gaze towards Niger, indicating the Nigerien president Mohammed Bazoum as the new reliable partner . Once again, a coup d'état is upsetting the plans and Bazoum has been detained since July 26th. While humanitarian and development cooperation channels remain active with the Sahel, the political and diplomatic posture seems to pursue more ways out than strategies.
STRATEGIC REFLECTION IS NEEDED
Meanwhile, Joseph Borrell admitted in recent weeks that the 600 million euros invested in the last decade in civil and military missions in the Sahel have not brought the desired results. While the High Representative does not hide the fact that the military mission in Niger is also on its last legs, before turning its gaze to the next "trusted partner" (Mauritania?), a more in-depth reflection on the relationship between Europe and the Sahel will be needed, starting also from the errors of comments, such as that of giving priority to a security approach that has overshadowed the integrated one. In the meantime, however, although it is not officially said, it is difficult to get rid of the idea that the Sahel is becoming an increasingly less priority region.
(Article published on Affariinternazionali)
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/sahel-dilemmi-unione-europea/ on Sat, 18 Nov 2023 06:47:33 +0000.