All the flaws of the vaccination campaign in Italy. Numbers and analysis in the Gimbe report

All the flaws of the vaccination campaign in Italy. Numbers and analysis in the Gimbe report

Vaccination coverage of the elderly is still insufficient and that of frail subjects is not known. This is one of the conclusions of the updated report on 7 April edited by the Gimbe Foundation chaired by Nino Cartabellotta: facts, numbers, analyzes and comparisons

Vaccination coverage of the elderly is still insufficient and that of frail subjects is not known.

This is what emerges from the updated report of the Gimbe Foundation on the vaccination campaign.

Here are the summary numbers:

As of April 7 (update at 15.58) 3,593,223 million people (6% of the population) completed the vaccination cycle with the second dose, with significant regional differences: from 7.7% in Piedmont to 4.7% in Campania and Sardinia. With respect to the protection of the most fragile:

  • Over 80: of the over 4.4 million, 1,627,429 (36.8%) completed the vaccination course and 1,264,690 (28.6%) received the first dose only, with important regional differences.
  • Age range 70-79: of the over 5.9 million, only 131,931 (2.2%) completed the vaccination cycle and 853,458 (14.3%) received only the first dose, with significant differences between regions.
  • High fragility: it is impossible to carry out analyzes in the absence of a specific reporting category for vaccines administered to extremely vulnerable people and people with severe disabilities.

Below is the full report of the Gimbe Foundation which analyzes the progress of the pandemic and the vaccination campaign:

The independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation detects in the week 31 March-6 April 2021, compared to the previous one, a decrease in new cases (125,695 vs 141,396) (figure 1), linked in part to the net reduction in testing activity. There was also a slight decline in deaths (2,868 vs 3,000) (figure 2), currently positive cases (555,705 vs 562,832) and people in home isolation (522,625 vs 529,885). Hospitalizations with symptoms (29,337 vs 29,231) and intensive care (3,743 vs 3,716) were substantially stable (Figure 3). In detail, compared to the previous week, the following changes were recorded:

  • Deaths: 2,868 (-4.4%)
  • Intensive care: +27 (+ 0.7%)
  • Hospitalized with symptoms: +106 (+ 0.4%)
  • Home isolation: -7.260 (-1.4%)
  • New cases: 125,695 (-11.1%)
  • Currently positive cases: -7.127 (-1.3%)

"For the third consecutive week – declares Nino Cartabellotta, President of the Gimbe Foundation – the slow decline of new cases continues, even if the decline in the last few days is overestimated due to the collapse of the testing activity during the Easter period: -128.141 people tested compared to the previous week and -304,499 compared to the previous one ». If at national level the percentage variation of new cases and currently positive cases are decreasing, the percentage variation of new cases grows in 4 Regions, in particular in Sicily and Sardinia where the increase exceeds 50%. Finally, in 10 Regions, the increase in currently positive cases unequivocally attests that the decrease in new cases is still small (table).

"The slowness with which new cases come down – says Renata Gili, Head of Research on Health Services of the Gimbe Foundation – together with the limited vaccination coverage of the most fragile subjects does not allow to reduce the pressure on hospitals, where the situation remains critical".

The alert thresholds for the occupancy of beds by Covid patients in the medical area (> 40%) and in intensive care (> 30%) are respectively 44% and 41%, with 8 Regions above the threshold for medical area and 14 above the threshold for intensive care. For the latter, the overcoming of 50% in Piedmont, the Autonomous Province of Trento, Marche, Valle d'Aosta, with a peak of 60% in Lombardy (figure 4) is worrying. "On the new daily admissions to intensive care – underlines Marco Mosti, Operations Director of the Gimbe Foundation – the 7-day moving average has begun to decline, but the value recorded on April 6 (229 admissions / day) still remains higher than that of a month ago (202 entries / day) "(figure 5).

Vaccines: supplies.

As of April 7 (update at 15.58) 14,017,310 doses were delivered to the Regions, equal to 89.3% of the doses scheduled for the 1st quarter of 2021. In detail:

"By setting the term of the 1st quarter to Sunday, April 4 – explains Cartabellotta – almost 90% of the expected vaccines are delivered, although it should be remembered that the first version of the vaccination plan provided for more than double the doses, as many as 28.3 million" . Moreover, almost a third of the supplies relating to the 1st quarter (4.37 million doses) were delivered in the last 2 weeks (figure 6): with a similar distribution, in the coming months the target of 500,000 vaccines per day is likely to be rejected, even if the “vaccine portfolio” for the 2nd quarter foresees 52.5 million doses on paper (figure 7), of which over 1.5 million have already been delivered by Pfizer. Furthermore, in the period 1 March-6 April an average of 193,021 doses per day were administered (range 93,612 – 294,187), with a real collapse on holidays (figure 8) which certifies the need to employ additional personnel for the campaign. "Between cuts in supplies, temporary stop at AstraZeneca and" last minute "quarterly deliveries – explains Cartabellotta – the March numbers are far from the objectives of the Figliuolo plan, which expected to reach 210,000 administrations per day in mid-March and 300,000 by 23 March . And above all, the 500,000 administrations per day since April 15 are still a mirage that risks further slowdowns due to any restrictions and, above all, individual mistrust of the AstraZeneca vaccine ».

Vaccines: administrations.

As of April 7 (update at 15.58) 3,593,223 million people (6% of the population) completed the vaccination cycle with the second dose, with significant regional differences: from 7.7% in Piedmont to 4.7% in Campania and Sardinia (figure 9). With respect to the protection of the most fragile:

  • Over 80: of the over 4.4 million, 1,627,429 (36.8%) completed the vaccination course and 1,264,690 (28.6%) received the first dose only, with important regional differences (Figure 10).
  • Age range 70-79: of the over 5.9 million, only 131,931 (2.2%) completed the vaccination cycle and 853,458 (14.3%) received only the first dose, with significant differences between regions (figure 11 ).
  • High fragility: it is impossible to carry out analyzes in the absence of a specific reporting category for vaccines administered to extremely vulnerable people and people with severe disabilities.

«The slow descent of infections in the last two weeks – concludes Cartabellotta – overestimated by the drastic drop in tampons must not feed unrealistic illusions. Today we are in full third wave, with a very critical hospital situation in over half of the Regions and, apart from the anecdotal and preliminary studies, there are no home therapies of documented efficacy that can be used on a large scale to reduce hospitalizations. On the vaccine front, the pace of the campaign is still far from the objectives set for April by the Figliuolo plan, the AstraZeneca case risks causing further slowdowns, the vaccination coverage of the elderly is still insufficient and that of frail subjects is not known. Finally, in the reopening plan it is essential to take into account that no structural interventions have been implemented either at the health level (testing & tracing enhancement) or at the system level (means of transport, ventilation for schools and public premises, etc.). In this scenario, it is up to the Draghi government to make difficult political choices to reconcile the right to health with the other rights and freedoms protected by the Constitution in order to allow the relaunch of economic activities and the recovery of the country ".


This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/sanita/tutte-le-pecche-della-campagna-vaccinale-in-italia-numeri-e-analisi-nel-report-gimbe/ on Thu, 08 Apr 2021 07:53:05 +0000.