All the geopolitical consequences of the US-Germany agreement on Nord Stream 2
The geopolitical implications of the US-Germany-Russia agreement are very significant, well beyond the energy match and the Ukrainian question. Here's what they are. The analysis by Federico Punzi, editorial director of Atlantico Quotidiano
It had long been understood that the Biden administration would give up Nord Stream 2 , at least by renouncing to apply the sanctions inflicted on the pipeline construction company and its CEO, Matthias Warnig, former Stasi agent and personal friend of Vladimir Putin. And Angela Merkel was so aware of this that last year, betting on a statement by the democratic candidate for the US presidential elections, she had stood firm in the face of Trump's pressure and punitive measures (new sanctions against the gas pipeline and the withdrawal of part of the US contingent in Germany).
The official announcement arrived on Wednesday evening: Washington and Berlin reached an agreement to put an end to the dispute over the second pipeline that will bring Russian gas to Germany. An understanding matured during Merkel's last visit to the White House, but most likely also in Geneva, during the direct talks between Biden and Putin. Of course, the US president could not afford to announce the American 'surrender' with the Chancellor guest at the White House.
The "compensation" offered by Berlin – guarantees and promises to Ukraine written on the water – is the same one that Trump had sent back to the sender until the last moment because it was considered unpaid.
"If Russia attempts to use energy as a weapon or commits other aggressive acts against Ukraine, Germany will act nationally and push for effective measures at the European level, including sanctions, that limit Russian export capacities in the energy sector. ".
Which, by the way, represents an enormity in form even before in substance, because in a bilateral agreement with the US, Berlin commits the entire EU to adopt sanctions against any Russian conduct caused by its bilateral partnership with Moscow. In short, we are a German protectorate. Closed parenthesis.
But be careful: no “kill switch” clause in the operation of the new pipeline. The Germans rejected the American request to suspend gas flows in the event of aggressive acts on the Russian side, with the excuse that it is a private initiative in which the federal government cannot put out … It is therefore not clear what they would be these measures which should limit Russian energy exports. And it is doubtful whether the Berlin government would really put Ukraine's security interests first.
This was understood by the Wall Street Journal , which spoke of an agreement "embarrassing for its weakness", to the point that "you can hear laughter in the Kremlin".
The US and Germany agree in considering in Europe's interest that Russian gas continues to transit Ukraine beyond 2024 and therefore Berlin undertakes to use all its levers to facilitate the renewal of the expiring agreement for up to ten years between Moscow and Kiev for gas transit, appointing a special envoy to facilitate negotiations.
This is the part of the agreement that also includes Russia, as it cannot formally be presented as a three-way US-Germany-Russia agreement. But Merkel and Putin discussed it personally over the phone. Basically, the Russian president is committed to being good for a decade. He can enjoy the strategic victory without trying to win big, to force his hand. It will be enough to wait for the new structure to take its course and produce the desired geopolitical effects.
The weakness of the agreement is in the facts: Russian gas will no longer need to pass through Ukraine, but Kiev should be reassured by the commitment of the United States and Germany to ask Moscow to continue to pay it the 2 billion annual rights transit, courtesy of. The Wall Street Journal again : "Are they joking?"
In the meantime, Berlin will undertake to help Kiev also to differentiate its energy supplies, in short, to become “green” , with an unspecified “Green Fund for Ukraine” of 148 million euros initially. As if to say, get ready to do without the Russian two billion.
It is clearly a halt agreement for Ukraine, whose economic and geopolitical interests are in fact sacrificed, but also a wake-up call for Poland and the Baltic countries. And in fact in Kiev, but also in Warsaw, they did not take it at all well. Thus reads the joint communiqué of the Foreign Ministries:
“The decision to build Nord Stream 2 made in 2015, a few months after Russia's illegal invasion and annexation of Ukrainian territory, created a political, security and credibility crisis in Europe. Currently, this crisis is significantly aggravated by the abandonment of attempts to stop the start of the NS2 pipeline. This decision created a political, military and energy threat to Ukraine and Central Europe, increasing Russia's potential to destabilize the security situation in Europe, perpetuating the divisions between NATO and EU member states. Ukraine and Poland will work together with their allies and partners to oppose NS2 until solutions are adopted to address the security crisis created by the pipeline ”.
According to Politico , Washington would have ordered Ukrainian President Zelensky not to get too excited, not to raise the tone. Indeed, Politico reports, US officials allegedly warned their Ukrainian counterparts that criticizing the agreement "could damage bilateral relations between Washington and Kiev" and ordered the Ukrainian government not to try to involve the US Congress, where, as we will see, the agreement it was not taken well at all.
Zelensky has received the sugar of an official invitation to the White House for next 30 August. It will be about convincing the turkey that there are sufficient guarantees that the completion and commissioning of Nord Stream 2 does not represent its Thanksgiving Day.
The geopolitical implications of the US-Germany-Russia agreement are very significant, well beyond the energy match and the Ukrainian question. On the one hand, there is the specter of a re-edition of the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact, which understandably agitates the capitals of Eastern Europe: it was not only a pact of non-aggression between Nazi Germany and the USSR, but also of the partition of Poland and the countries Baltics.
And on the other side we can see the embryo of a new Yalta. In fact, Biden has given the green light to the finlandisation of Ukraine. But the result for Putin is even more far-reaching. For the first time since the end of the Cold War, Russia sees the doors of Europe open to its own energy and geopolitical penetration, sees recognized by the US, albeit obtorto collo, a projection of influence that reaches the heart of the European continent, up to Berlin.
The US green light for Nord Stream 2 must obviously be read through wide-angle lenses, that is, inserted in a global scenario in which the number one challenge to American leadership is represented by China. To contain the rise of Beijing and counter its ambitions, Washington needs to cool down the Eastern front in Europe: not to quarrel with Berlin, indeed to obtain its collaboration, and at least buy Russia's "non-belligerence". As Enzo Reale has already observed in Atlantico Quotidiano , “in the international relations manual, the involvement of Moscow in an anti-Chinese function is a dogma from which it is difficult to free oneself”.
This approach has its foundation. The problem, however, is that the price of Moscow's involvement, or "non-belligerence" while Washington focuses on the Chinese challenge, could be too high: the insertion of a heavy wedge – the Nord Stream 2 , in fact – right in the center of the US alliance system.
As we said, the consequences of the green light for the pipeline go far beyond the finlandisation of Ukraine. This would be an acceptable price. No, the problem is that the completion and entry into operation of Nord Stream 2 – a project that by making Europe, and its leading country, more dependent on Russian gas, conflicts with US interests – accelerates the process, already underway for a couple of decades, of strategic detachment of Germany from its American ally. On the contrary, it represents a real leap in quality, a declaration of strategic independence and almost neutrality of Germany between the USA and Russia.
There is a small detail: Germany is not Switzerland, it cannot simply become a “Great Switzerland” without causing a geopolitical landslide, without dragging the whole of the European continent into its Ostpolitik . It is the economic and political center of gravity of the EU, in fact also recognized in Washington as the hegemonic power of continental and Mediterranean Europe. Hence, German neutrality would mean European neutrality. Equidistance of Berlin between Washington and Moscow would also mean equidistance of the EU.
Therefore, through the two Nord Streams , Moscow and Berlin are in fact deconstructing the transatlantic link, a vital strategic interest for the United States, and welding a Russian-German axis capable of launching a takeover bid on Central and Eastern Europe – what Warsaw and Kiev fear but should fear also Paris, Rome and London.
The classic heterogenesis of ends: a move intended by Washington to enlist Berlin on the anti-Chinese front and gain Russian "non-belligerence" on the Eastern front, would end up benefiting China, to the extent that it disrupts the US alliance system and pushes Europe towards the so-called "strategic autonomy", which in fact Beijing does nothing but openly sponsor.
Biden will now have to convince an extremely hostile Congress to Russia of the convenience of his deal with Berlin. It will not be easy. Democrats and Republicans have always been against Nord Stream 2 . But while for the former the anti-Russian sentiment is superficial and facade, a mask worn instrumentally to de-legitimize the Trump presidency (Obama in 2012 accused his opponent Romney of being firm in the Cold War), in the latter it is much more rooted.
Republican Senator Jim Risch, minority chairman of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, stressed that "not a single member of Congress supports the completion of this pipeline." The agreement is "full of promises and guarantees", but offers few opportunities to address the major national security threats posed by Nord Stream 2 . And rightly Risch noted that the agreement was negotiated "without the participation and approval of important allies such as Ukraine and Poland". Senator Ted Cruz spoke of a "geopolitical victory for Putin and a catastrophe for the United States and our allies", of a "total surrender" of Biden to the Russian president.
It is not by a twist of fate that this huge gift to the Kremlin ultimately came from Biden and not from Trump, accused of being Putin's puppet for four years. If only you consider that Russiagate was a hoax, a total hoax, while it is history that Obama and Biden were weak with the Russians, willy-nilly Putin's puppet .
Article published on atlanticoquotidiano.it
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/tutte-le-conseguenze-geopolitiche-dellaccordo-usa-germania-sul-nord-stream-2/ on Sun, 25 Jul 2021 07:26:55 +0000.