All the indirect effects of the Russia-Ukraine war for the US and China. Fabbri’s analysis
Russia-Ukraine war, what changes for the US and China. The analysis by Dario Fabbri, editor of the geopolitical monthly Scenari attached to the newspaper Domani
The analysis by Dario Fabbri, editor of the geopolitical monthly Scenari attached to the newspaper Domani
Instead of communicating these concerns to the allies, America let the chancelleries of Eastern Europe continue to pull the new western-leaning Ukraine towards it, without there being the concrete intention of welcoming it into the family, let alone protecting it in case of aggression.
Hence the abandonment of Kiev in the ongoing war – announced in the previous weeks, when US intelligence signaled that it did not consider the former Soviet Republic part of its sphere of influence.
In fact, a mess, capable of further damaging the American narrative, after the unfortunate withdrawal from Afghanistan. Except that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has reversed the perspective, favoring the situation in Washington, satisfied in observing the waving of others.
Whatever the final outcome of the conflict, Moscow will continue to take care of Ukraine, to manage a potential client state, disliked by a large part of the population, to be supported economically and militarily. Perhaps in the dramatic attempt to free oneself from a quagmire. Enough to inhibit the Bear, less able to penetrate European territory, too busy to take full sides with China in a possible anti-American league.
Unless it makes glaring mistakes, Washington will find itself basking in the impulsive war wanted by the Russian Federation, a turn against the hybrid war favored by the Kremlin in the recent past.
More. The Moscow offensive triggered the greater homogeneity of the European camp, which has long been divided on its attitude towards the Kremlin, between the irreducible hostility of Rumsfeld's New Europe and the softness of Western Europe.
The Putinian initiative seems to have tightened its links, despite the possibility for Berlin and Rome to postpone the exclusion from the Swift financial circuit of Russia to take advantage of Siberian gas. Physiologically, the waning of hostilities will cause the reopening of ancient fractures, but for now we are witnessing an unexpected cohesion.
Without Washington running the risk of welcoming Ukraine into NATO, an outcome advocated by the neighbors of Kiev and not at all overseas.
So Beijing will not be able to take advantage of what has happened to launch itself on Formosa. Of course, the Communist leadership warns Taipei that it will be abandoned to its fate by the same American negligence, but it is aware that the theaters are strategically distant, with Ukraine for some time less relevant in overseas calculations and Taiwan simply decisive, a barrier that prevents Beijing to go offshore.
(Brief excerpt from Fabbri's analysis published in the monthly Scenari of the Domani newspaper )
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/tutti-gli-effetti-indiretti-della-guerra-russia-ucraina-per-usa-e-cina-lanalisi-di-fabbri/ on Fri, 04 Mar 2022 10:39:37 +0000.