All the trouble for Biden and Trump after the Midterm elections
A slight drop in inflation, Wall Street is flying, the red wave that is not there: Biden has been able to limit the damage; Trump feels the pinch but his election machine doesn't stop. The analysis by Mario Sechi and Rita Lofano for the Agi agency
Is the House of Trump saga after the Midterm vote over? Whoever claims that The Donald is archived is wrong, whoever sees him behind every plot is out of the way, whoever keeps it under radar control is doing well. The Midterm vote has kicked off the experiments of a large political laboratory: the congressional game has just begun, it goes in parallel with that for the White House, America 2024. Let's see the post-vote picture.
Good and bad news for Biden
A slight decline in inflation, Wall Street flying, the red wave that is not there. Joe Biden is in the whirlwind of a double scenario. In the first he is the winner, he shakes hands, smiles. In the second, he has the worried look of someone who has just missed the last train. True, Biden has limited the damage, he has avoided the avalanche, but the relief is a brief moment, because the House is lost and the Senate also dances the rumba. Of course, the margins of detachment are not oceanic, the Republicans have not broken through the lines, but while the president can say that he has held up ("in the Chamber I have lost fewer seats than other presidents of dem"), the Democratic Party no longer has the control of Congress and this is a political fact that cannot be routinely declassified, it requires the White House to seek dialogue with the Gop on spending laws and the most controversial issues, there will be very little left of the electoral agenda; as for the economic one, without an agreement with the Republicans nothing will happen and the war in Ukraine will be an element of discussion, the GOP will ask for a definition of the objectives (the terms for reaching a negotiation with Russia) and Biden will be happy to fix them and present the to-do list (and accept) to Zelensky.
The good news (but even in this case it is better to be sober) is that on inflation, the gallop of prices slowed down in October (+ 7.7%). Of course, this is not enough to say that we are at the end of inflation (the Federal Reserve remains firm on the path of a half-point rate hike in December), but for the stock market it is a signal. Wall Street records and projects the scenario with the best session of the last two years: the Dow Jones makes a jump of 1200 points (+ 3.70%), the Nasdaq gains 7.35%, the S&P 500 index flies to + 5.54%. Biden on inflation says it "will take time to bring it down to normal levels and there may be setbacks, but we are focused." The president met with his supporters at the Howard Theater in Washington, and at the end of the vote he presents himself as the one who, for better or worse, keeps the Democratic house standing, even if the road to his re-nomination is a complicated political sudoku. A Trump victory would have favored him, the rise of Ron DeSantis requires a reflection on whether to run a senior president (Biden in 2024 will be 82 years old) against the young governor of Florida (DeSantis in 2024 will be 46 years old) determined , effective and 'in a state of grace'.
Joe seeks an encore, Ocasio-Cortez criticizes the dem
Biden reiterated that he wants to stand as a candidate, he does it when contesting him is not easy, despite the defeat in the House. But having opened the door to the White House for 2024, he fuels the controversy among his opponents on the left.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, wasted no time, and in an interview with the New York Times she looked at what she thinks after the loss of seats in New York State: “A lot has to do with Andrew Cuomo. But it's not about blaming him, it's about examining what the New York State Democratic Party is. ” Ocasio-Cortez does not mince words, accuses the leadership of the DEM, speaks of "big capital and old-fashioned politics", paints "a calcified machine", accuses the New York State presidency of the DEM of never having it " call once. He has done nothing but antagonize me and all the progressive candidates. We have to unite as a team ”. Ocasio-Cortez states that "the idea of a purely moderate policy that seeks to defeat both the progressive base and the Republican Party at the same time" ends up "isolating" and "shrinking" the party. Who is the prince of moderates among the dem? Joe Biden. And who is the princess? Nancy Pelosi.
The New York Times itself points out that “Biden looks like a candidate who is making the victory lap, even if his party has lost seats and could lose control of the House. But having avoided the disastrous election that some feared and predicted makes the results better perceived by the Democrats ”. An optical illusion? Maybe, but if you fear the red wave, your allies and opponents summon it and it doesn't come, then you become the one who avoided it.
Biden therefore goes on (in his heart he would like the ideal 'rematch' against Donald Trump) and after having raised the alarm for democracy in danger and warned against the onslaught of the Maga movement, he now says that "Tuesday was a a good day for America, a good day for democracy. And it was a strong night for the Democrats ”. The point remains: the dem no longer control the House, Nancy Pelosi will no longer be speaker, a head-to-head is underway in the Senate. For a 'strong' night, it's not the best.
The Senate hangs in the balance
The counting of the cards goes on, the situation is the following:
The Republican Party is close to conquering control of the House, the GOP has won or has a clear advantage so far in 221 matches (three seats more than the majority of 218), the Democrats are stuck at 214.
The Senate is still missing seats in Nevada and Arizona, the demos in these two states are hoping to win thanks to the postal vote. In Georgia, the ballot takes place on 6 December.
McCarthy is a candidate to be a speaker
What happens in the house of the Republicans? The internal battle in the GOP has begun between Trumpians, otherwise Trumpians and never Trumpians. So with a result still to be made official, Kevin McCarthy quickly set out in search of the role that was of Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the House. McCarthy took pen and paper and sent a letter to fellow parliamentarians to launch his candidacy: "In the last century, Republicans have wrested the House from Democrats only four times: 1946, 1952, 1994 and 2010. Only on two occasions has the reversal occurred in four years or less. Although several races still remain pending, I can say with certainty that we will join that list, taking advantage of the significant gains and achieving our goal of regaining the House ”. McCarthy points out that it was “the most expensive and probably the most competitive Midterm in American history. Yet, in a hard-fought race, our message and our candidates prevailed, winning key seats across the country, some of them in districts that President Biden won in double digits just two years ago, including the first incumbent president of the country. DCCC (the Democratic Committee for the Electoral Campaign, ed) to be defeated in 42 years ".
McCarthy points out that the latter "is no small feat" and he is right, the news of Mike Lawler's victory over Sean Patrick Maloney is of great importance, it is a burning defeat for Biden's party which in New York saw change from blue to red four seats. And Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's interview with the New York Times underscores how important it is. The young progressive in turn aspires to a change of leadership in the House and eventually the changing of the guard could favor her.
And Trump organizes the "big announcement"
McCarthy in his letter stresses that “the conquest of the majority is only the beginning. Now, we will be judged on what we do with our majority. Now the real work begins. This is why I am applying to become President of the House of Representatives and humbly ask for your support ”. Signed 'Kevin'.
Detail: Donald Trump's election machine is working at full speed, his fans have just received a letter inviting them to make a donation and participate in the drawing of an invitation to Mar-a-Lago "together with President Trump" in the " day of the great announcement ”, November 15th. The 'House of Trump' saga continues.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/midterm-biden-trump-cosa-cambia/ on Fri, 11 Nov 2022 06:03:57 +0000.