All the US, UK and EU somersaults over Russia’s gas and oil
Rather than increase domestic production, the Biden administration prefers to clear the oil of the Venezuelan caudillo Maduro and the Iranian regime , while it is forced to beg for an increase in production at OPEC. The analysis by Federico Punzi, editorial director of Atlantico newspaper
Important developments at all levels in the day two days ago on the conflict in Ukraine.
Let's start from the end. The bizarre statement in which the Polish government actually advanced its proposal to "turn over" its Mig-29s to Ukraine. Evidently to get out of the Ukrainian and American pressure, Warsaw offered to transfer its aircraft to the US base in Ramstein (Germany), in exchange for an equivalent number of American jets of the same capacity (the F-16s ), as suggested by the US Secretary of State Blinken. “At the disposal of the US government”, they could then be transferred from Ramstein to Ukraine. In this way it would not be Poland directly, but the US would be supplying the MiGs to the Ukrainians and the Poles would not see their air force reduced. Well, US Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland falls from the clouds: we didn't know anything about it. In the evening, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby sent the ball back to the Polish court, effectively denying Blinken as well. It is up to Warsaw to decide whether or not to transfer its jets to the Ukrainians, their proposal highlights the "logistical complexities" of the issue: "the prospect of fighters available to the US government departing from a US / NATO base in Germany to flying over the Ukrainian airspace disputed with Russia raises serious concerns for the entire alliance… We do not believe that Poland's proposal is sustainable ”. But is it sustainable for Poland to take responsibility for this decision entirely and alone, by depriving itself of a piece of its own air force? Washington washes its hands …
Victoria Nuland herself, engaged in a hearing before the Senate Foreign Affairs Commission, then made a mess on the history of biological laboratories in Ukraine, already the subject of Russian and Chinese propaganda. To a question from sen. Marco Rubio (Rep) on the existence or not of biological and chemical weapons in the country, Nuland replied that there are "biological research laboratories " and that the United States is working with the Ukrainian government to prevent them from falling into the hands of the forces Russian. Not weapons , but research facilities . The problem is that Nuland's response was ambiguous enough to fuel Russian propaganda and conspiracy theorists. A delicate issue that in any case had to be managed differently. And most importantly, knowing of the invasion months in advance, they could have secured them sooner.
THE BIDEN DECISION
Also two days ago, President Biden announced the ban on imports of Russian oil, gas and coal into the United States. A block that had been rumored for days. British Prime Minister Johnson announced that by the end of the year the UK will be able to do the same, while President Biden himself has made it clear that unlike the US, European allies "cannot take this step". At least the uncertainty on the issue ends, in fact the stock exchanges have reacted well, even if oil prices have increased to around 130 dollars a barrel.
THE EFFECTS OF THE US AND UK DECISION
A politically risky move. We explain why. The US and UK import a residual amount of Russian oil and gas compared to their total needs (respectively 7 and 11 per cent of imported oil) and the sanctions in force are already effectively blocking the export of Russian oil . Therefore, in the face of minimal additional damage for Russia (a different thing would have been to sanction anyone who bought Russian oil), the political risk is to show the first cracks among the allies on sanctions and, above all, to expose limits and vulnerabilities of European countries.
THE AMERICAN GOALS ON RUSSIA
As long as the exclusion of the Russian energy sector from sanctions might seem like a shared choice between the US and the EU, an option on the table that for the moment was decided not to exercise, Washington's decision formalizes the fact that Europeans simply cannot afford it. because of their energy dependence on Russia. A danger, that of European defection causes energy blackmail. And Biden himself says: “We are net exporters of energy so we can afford this step and the others cannot, but we are working closely with Europe and our partners to develop a long-term strategy to reduce their dependence on 'Russian energy'.
THE WORDS OF BLINKEN
Already last Sunday, Secretary of State Blinken had informed the NBC that "very active discussions" were underway between the US and its allies on the ban on Russian oil and gas imports. If it was a way to test the waters on the markets and the pulse of the allies, the answers came the next day. Black Monday for all stock exchanges and oil and gas prices on new records.
WHAT GERMANY SAYS
From Berlin, Chancellor Scholz was quick to clarify that "EU energy needs cannot be guaranteed without imports from Russia and Germany has no plans to suspend them". “There is currently no other way to secure Europe's energy supply for heating, mobility, electricity and industry. This is why Europe has deliberately excluded the supply of energy from sanctions ", defining" a conscious decision on our part to maintain relations with Russian companies in the field of energy supply ". The same position expressed by the Dutch Prime Minister Rutte: a ban on Russian energy imports would be a "mistake", an "unimaginable risk". On the other hand, how would bringing the European economy to its knees help the Ukrainians and thwart Putin's aims?
THE US AND UK TUNES
Therefore, if up to now the United States, the United Kingdom and the EU had shown a great compactness, even beyond expectations, both on sanctions and on military aid, from pressing the US to sanction Russian oil and gas, and to supply fighter jets to the Ukraine, the first cracks and some confusion emerged.
AS RUSSIA REPLYED
Moscow may decide to take advantage of it. Immediately after the announcement of the US ban, the Kremlin made it known that President Putin signed a decree introducing a ban on the import and export of certain products and raw materials from and to some countries until 31 December 2022, "for safeguard the security of Russia ”. He then gave the government a mandate to draw up the list of countries and goods subject to the prohibitions. Will Moscow hit European countries where they have shown themselves to be most vulnerable by blocking gas supplies?
THE THREATS
The hypothesis of suspending the flow of gas via Nord Stream 1 had been threatened the day before by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: it would be justified, given the "unfounded accusations against Russia regarding the energy crisis in Europe and the Nord Stream blockade 2 … European politicians are pushing us in this direction with their statements and accusations ”.
AVAILABILITY OF KIEV
What conclusions can be drawn from these two events? That the US and Europe appear to have reached their red lines in defending Ukraine, both in military and economic terms. And it is perhaps no coincidence that yesterday the first real willingness to compromise with Moscow arrived from Kiev (while the Kremlin continues to demand a capitulation).
THE ASPIRATIONS OF ZELENSKY
Understandably, President Zelensky has tried to involve NATO more directly in the conflict, but by this point the Ukrainians must have concluded that they have made the most of the West: Europe will not jeopardize Russian oil and gas imports. NATO will not approve a no-fly zone – which would have exceeded the level of involvement deemed by the Alliance not at risk of escalating with Moscow – and probably not even the Mig will arrive.
BORN DOSSIER
Zelensky then opened to a discussion on the status of Crimea and the separatist republics of Donbass, he said he had "cooled down a long time ago" his enthusiasm for joining NATO, after realizing that NATO "is not ready to accept Ukraine, this alliance is afraid of disputes, it is afraid of a confrontation with Russia ”. And from his party came the entirely new proposal of an agreement under which, instead of joining NATO, the United States, Russia and Turkey would undertake to guarantee the security of Ukraine.
THE FRUSTRATION
On the European side, the US pressure on the ban on Russian energy imports, with its negative effects on the markets, and the frustration for a situation that is not unblocked, have led the Franco-German leadership to take a dangerous step: to call Beijing. Yesterday, French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz had a video call with Xi Jinping. But inviting China to play a mediating role would be a mistake and would open a further crack with Washington.
THE EU MOVES
The issue of European energy dependence on Russian sources remains. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has announced a plan to reduce it by 80 percent already in the course of 2022. How? Three pillars: diversification of supplies; more investments in renewables; energy efficiency.
LITTLE CREDIBLE OBJECTIVES
Not very credible objective, very fragile second and third pillars. If anything we should have learned from the Ukrainian crisis, it is that the forced transition to renewables has handed our energy security into the hands of Russia and China, has weakened our industries, raised prices and imposed a tax on the middle class.
WHAT IS BERLIN DOING?
It is not yet clear, for example, how Berlin plans to fulfill the commitment to reduce its dependence on Russia, solemnly announced to the Bundestag by Chancellor Scholz, excluding extending the life of the three nuclear power plants still in operation. In this regard, Victoria Nuland, in a hearing, urged on by Senator Ted Cruz (Rep), said that Nord Stream 2 is "dead" and does not believe that it will be "resurrected", but is evasive on the US sanctions against the Russian-German gas pipeline .
THE TENSIONS
But the same goes for the United States, where the Biden administration has deliberately chosen to curb domestic production, by canceling the Keystone XL pipeline and suspending the issuance of permits to extract oil and gas from federal lands and waters. The White House candidly admitted last November that "long-term price increases" will help transition to renewables.
CAPRIOLE USA
Rather than increasing domestic production, disavowing green policies, to cool the rise in prices due to the Ukrainian conflict and sanctions, the Biden administration prefers to clear the oil of the Venezuelan caudillo Maduro and the Iranian regime , while it is forced to beg an increase in production at OPEC. But as the Wall Street Journal reports , during the Ukrainian crisis, President Biden was not even able to speak with the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed, who refused to accept his calls. while they spoke several times with Putin and Zelensky.
Unsurprisingly, given that the first thing the Biden administration did once it was in office was to cool relations with the Gulf monarchies, deny them support in Yemen, suspend military supplies, and turn to Tehran again to strike a new deal on the nuclear program.
Article published on atlanticoquotidiano.it
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/energia-capriole-usa-uk-e-ue-russia-gas-petrolio/ on Thu, 10 Mar 2022 08:45:59 +0000.