Are elections in Lower Saxony agitating Scholz?
All the possible consequences of the elections in Lower Saxony, Germany's vast and populous Land, on the Scholz government. Pierluigi Mennitti's article from Berlin
Only those who do not consider the weight of the Länder in the federal architecture of the German state can be surprised at the loss that every single regional election assumes in German politics. Just as a reminder: it was a disastrous regional election that prematurely closed Gerhard Schröder's second government and opened the long era of Angela Merkel with new elections in 2005. If then to go to the vote is a vast and populous Land like Lower Saxony, then the importance of the stakes is clearer.
Squeezed between the moorland of Hanover and the North Sea, this Land often confused with other Saxonie of Germany (two other Länder have the same name in other combinations) occupies a central place in the events of the industrial transition of the main European economy, including the central and the Volkswagen plants in Wolfsburg, in the transition from combustion engines to electric production, the offshore wind farms on the border with Danish and Dutch territorial waters, up to the ports on the coast where the work for the first emergency regasifiers is proceeding frenetically.
A very topical issue such as the transition from energy dependence on Moscow to the diversification of sources and supplies passes above all from here. Just as the narrow streets of Olaf Scholz's national government pass through here, tossed about by not-so-exciting polls and wrist-shaking challenges. A negative result of his party and his coalition would have heavy repercussions in the capital, even if it certainly would not lead to a government crisis.
Luckily (by Scholz) at the helm of Lower Saxony there is an old fox like Stephan Weil, 64, at the helm since February 2013. A whole life in the SPD and a apprenticeship behind him that also includes six years as mayor of Hanover. Grumpy (but for the Germans it is a sign of personality), prudent, Weil is a pragmatist with his feet firmly on the ground, something appreciated by the voters of this huge Land which, in addition to cars, turbines and future regasification pipes, has a wide and solid agricultural tradition.
So far he has ruled for two legislatures with two different coalitions: the first, with only one majority seat, with the Greens, the second riding a Grosse Koalition with the Christian Democrats. And it has gone through all the crises that have hit Germany in the last decade: the Volkswagen dieselgate (of which as president of Lower Saxony he is a member of the supervisory board), the migrant emergency, the pandemic, now the energy crisis.
The polls give him an advantage between 3 and 5 points to obtain the third term, with which he would become the longest-serving president in the history of the Land, surpassing a historical name of the region, the Christian-Democrat Ernst Albrecht who was none other than the father of Ursula von der Leyen. And if the citizens voted directly for the president, without going through the mediation of the parties, his victory would not even be in question, given the advantage he enjoys as a personal consent towards the other contenders.
His victory would reassure Scholz but not the entire team of the national government. According to forecasts, the liberals dance dangerously on the entry threshold of 5%, the Greens would see the irresistible rise to around 16% slowed down, half of the consensus attributed to the SPD. And Afd's far right would return to grow by almost 5 points compared to 2017, the year in which the strong theme of immigration was central. And compared to then, even the two pillars of German politics – CDU and SPD – would lose 5-6%. Despite Weil.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/germania-elezioni-bassa-sassonia/ on Sun, 09 Oct 2022 05:55:19 +0000.