Are Russia’s astonishing data on its weapons production a bluff? Report Wsj
According to some Western analysts, Moscow's weapons production data hide several challenges and could be misleading. Here because. The Wall Street Journal article
Russia's ability to churn out tanks, missiles and grenades has surprised the West and increased pressure on Ukraine. It is now a question of understanding how long it can continue – writes theWall Street Journal .
For some Western officials and analysts, Russian military production data is misleading and hides problems such as labor shortages and a decline in quality. The increase may not be sustainable, as it draws resources away from the broader economy, and any drop in production could leave Russia even more dependent on help from allies such as China, Iran and North Korea.
“Russia has managed quite impressively to increase production in many defense sectors,” said Oscar Jonsson, a researcher at the Swedish Defense University. “But I would be very doubtful whether he will be able to continue at this rate… he will stagnate.”
Russia's ability to produce weapons has become increasingly important as the war drags into its third year and amid uncertainty over future U.S. military aid to Ukraine. Russia's increased availability of artillery shells, for example, proved decisive when Ukraine lost the eastern town of Avdiivka in February. Meanwhile, Russia's ability to rearm after the war could threaten other countries on its borders.
THE CONSTANT INCREASE IN DEFENSE SPENDING
Following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the United States and its allies imposed a series of sanctions aimed at limiting Russia's arms industry. On the battlefield, Russia soon lost equipment and ran out of supplies of missiles and shells.
In response, the Kremlin quickly pumped resources into its arms industry. Last year, 21% of all federal spending went to what Moscow classifies as defense, up from nearly 14% in 2020. The 2024 federal budget calls for an even higher percentage of defense spending, above 29%.
Russia has also become adept at avoiding sanctions, sourcing components such as Western microchips and telecommunications equipment that it cannot buy directly from other countries.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in December that Russia was producing 17.5 times more ammunition, 17 times more drones and 5.6 times more tanks than before the war.
According to Western officials, Moscow has also increased production of missiles and other weapons. For example, production of artillery shells rose from 400,000 shells in 2021 to 600,000 the following year, more than the combined production of the United States and the European Union, according to Estonian military intelligence estimates.
According to a senior NATO official, Russia can probably sustain its war effort for another two to five years at its current size. At least two European military intelligence agencies believe Russia is capable of producing enough weapons for another few years.
THE UNSUSTAINABLE EFFECTS FOR THE ECONOMY
The increase in military production is reflected in economic data. According to an analysis of Russian statistics conducted by the Finnish central bank, the production of several military-related industries, including optical products and processed metals, has grown by up to two times since the start of the war.
But the increase in production – and the overall level of military spending – may not be sustainable, given the drain of investment, labor and materials from other sectors of the Russian economy, the Bank of Finland concluded.
The central bank's analysis also shows that much of the increase in defense-related production has been in low-tech products, such as machined steel, rather than more sophisticated items, such as semiconductors, for which Russia depends on suppliers foreigners.
While Moscow has been able to circumvent sanctions for some products, other, more specialized components that Russia has purchased from the West – such as the tanks' optical system that helps crew members see – are much more difficult to purchase through third parties.
DOES MOSCOW PRODUCE OR RECYCLE?
Some analysts question Moscow's manufacturing claims. Russian production data, for example, does not distinguish between newly produced armored vehicles and older models pulled out of storage and refurbished. “They're inflating the numbers,” said Michael Gjerstad, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Gjerstad estimates that Russia pulled at least 1,200 old tanks out of storage last year, based on an analysis of satellite images before and after the war began. This means that, at most, Russia produced 330 new tanks last year, although the real figure is probably half that according to the researcher.
For example, since late 2022, up to 200 tanks at a time have remained outside the Omsktransmash tank factory in Omsk, Siberia, according to satellite photos provided by Planet Labs PBC. This is despite the plant not producing new tanks for several years before the war began, Gjerstad said.
The tanks resemble the T-62, which hasn't been produced since the 1970s, and the T-54/55, designed just after World War II, according to defense consultant Nicholas Drummond. These old tanks are not as quality as the new models and supplies will eventually run out.
The Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment on the production and quality of its weapons production.
Russia also tapped reserves of old artillery ammunition. According to the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank, the stockpile stands at around 3 million rounds of ammunition, many of them in poor condition.
DEPENDENCE ON ALLIES
RUSI and other analysts argue that Russia's domestic ammunition production is not enough to meet Ukraine's needs, meaning Moscow will increasingly depend on foreign allies.
According to analysts, North Korea, Iran and Belarus have supplied munitions, while Russia has received components such as computer chips and chemicals from China.
North Korean munitions factories are currently operating at full capacity to supply Russia, South Korea's Defense Minister recently told reporters. Shin Won-sik said North Korea may have shipped the equivalent of approximately 3 million 152mm artillery shells since last September. Ukrainian military intelligence said the quality of North Korean ammunition was poor and that they sometimes even destroyed Russian guns.
In exchange for those supplies, there is some evidence that Russia shared military technical information with China and North Korea, the senior NATO official said.
THERE IS A LACK OF LABOR IN RUSSIAN ARMS FACTORS
At home, Russian arms makers face labor challenges. In February, during a visit to Russia's largest tank factory, President Vladimir Putin told a worker that he was aware of the shortage of qualified personnel, according to a transcript on the Kremlin's website.
The labor shortage at the Uralvagonzavod site was so severe early last year that the company hired 250 inmates from a nearby prison, the penitentiary institution said at the time.
In June 2022, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov stated that the armaments industry had a shortage of around 400,000 people. Borisov and other Russian officials have said the sector needs about 2 million workers, suggesting a staffing shortage of about 20%.
Since then, Russia has sent more people to fight in Ukraine, and economists estimate that hundreds of thousands more have left the country, although some may have returned.
To boost production, Uralvagonzavod, which has around 30,000 workers, began producing around the clock at the factory.
Workers have complained on social media about inadequate training, lack of tools and poor safety conditions. In one case widely reported in Russian media last year, a dispute over training and wages led a worker to stab himself in the throat with a knife in front of his boss. He survived. The company said it regretted the incident, which it described as a normal human tragedy.
(Excerpt from the foreign press review edited by eprcomunicazione )
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/i-mirabolanti-dati-della-russia-sulla-sua-produzione-di-armi-sono-un-bluff/ on Sun, 17 Mar 2024 06:36:20 +0000.