Are we ready for a potential bird flu pandemic?
It still doesn't make much noise but there are many experts who warn of the spread of avian flu which for now is having a terrible impact on biodiversity but if it were to become a pandemic the mortality rate for humans would be 56%. Facts, numbers and expert comments
For the New York Times , "an even deadlier pandemic could soon arrive", the World Health Organization (WHO) thinks that "the world must prepare for a potential pandemic" and some experts quoted by Nature say they see "a threat familiar and a virus whose course is difficult to predict”.
This is avian influenza A, caused by the H5N1 virus, "never, ever to be taken for granted", according to the scientific journal.
WHAT HAPPENED
As Start had written at the end of 2021 and then again several times in 2022, the worst avian flu epidemic in its history is underway in Europe, with the first outbreak identified in October 2021 in Israel.
It all started, as usually happens with the H5N1 virus, from tens of millions of migratory birds. The disease, in fact, is a disease of this kind.
From Israel, the alarm was then raised by France and the United Kingdom, which had placed chickens and turkeys in lockdown . Even Italy in December 2021, according to reports from the Ministry of Health, was monitoring the situation following some outbreaks traced in birds in Veneto, Lombardy and Lazio, to which Friuli Venezia Giulia and Emilia Romagna were later added.
WHY WE (RE)TALKING ABOUT IT NOW
Now, however, we are on another level, according to experts. In addition to monitoring and trying to contain the spread of the virus, it is necessary to ask ourselves if we are ready to face a new pandemic because, as Calogero Terregino, director of the European reference laboratory for avian flu at the Experimental Zooprophylactic Institute of the Venezie recalled , " influenza viruses run (and mutate) rapidly. Several pandemics, including the Spanish one, were born from bird flu”.
In fact, what is worrying are the latest developments, according to which the virus has passed from birds to mammals, making a leap in species, caused by the mutation of the virus. As Sanità Informazione recalls, in the United Kingdom, 9 cases have been reported between otters, minks and foxes since 2021; in the Spanish region of Galicia, an epidemic occurred last October among the mink of a farm with over 50,000 animals as had never happened before among mammals. And yesterday, Scotland reported the death of 4 seals tested positive , as the number of cases in mammals continues to rise globally. In Italy, at the moment there seem to be no cases of avian flu among mammals.
But the virus has now also arrived outside Europe. One of the most worrying cases is the episode of 585 dead sea lions on the beaches of Peru.
WHAT ARE THE RISKS
The identified cases are a signal that worries experts because if the virus continues to be transmitted between mammals it can mutate until it can be transmitted from man to man. In fact, cases of avian flu in humans have so far only ever occurred through contact with infected animals, but the case of minks in Spain is significant because, as virologist Thomas Peacock explained to the NYT , the upper respiratory tract of this animal " it is uniquely suited to serve as a conduit for human beings.”
In fact, the US newspaper recalls that "in 2006, when scientists discovered that H5N1 did not spread easily among humans because it deposited deep in the lungs, Thijs Kuiken of the Erasmus University Medical Center in Rotterdam warned that if the virus had it evolved to bind to receptors in the upper respiratory tract – from which it could more easily spread through the air – the risk of a pandemic among humans would have increased dramatically.
Furthermore, the article states that "if different strains of influenza infect the same person at the same time, the strains can exchange gene segments and give rise to new, more transmissible strains." For example, “if a mink farm worker with the flu also gets infected with H5N1, that could be enough to trigger a pandemic.”
THE CASES AMONG MEN
Between January 27 and February 2 of this year, no new cases of human infection were recorded in the western Pacific region, declares the latest WHO report , which however also recalls that, from January 2003 to February 2 As of 2023, a total of 240 cases had been reported from the same region, of which 135 were fatal, with a mortality rate of 56%. The latest case, globally, was reported from China, with an onset date of September 22, 2022 and death on October 18, 2022.
WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY
“Certainly the H5N1 virus, which then causes bird flu, has rarely infected humans. However, when it happened, the disease had a 56% mortality [in animals it is 90-100%, ed. ], or one out of two infected people dies. Covid at the beginning, in the pre-vaccine era, had 1-2% mortality. So we are concerned about what happens in animals, these are diseases that sooner or later arrive in humans. I believe that thinking that it can arrive is not wrong ”, said Matteo Bassetti, head of infectious diseases at the San Martino hospital in Genoa.
For the Scottish Marine Animal Strandings Scheme, we are also facing a "change of pace" in the spread of the virus.
And according to Nature , "the virus appears to ebb and flow, making the phenomenon unpredictable and worrying" so much so that the scientists say that "the world's poor response to the Covid-19 pandemic suggests that, come what may, we are not ready".
HOW TO INTERVENE
"We must not wait, but invest in two things: active vaccines against H5N1, already approved by the American FDA, and work to be ready to produce them in large quantities because we cannot wait 6 months for large-scale production", added Bassetti . “And also develop tests for this virus and do them to those who are in contact with birds, continuing to test them and understand if something is wrong. Then invest – he recommends – in antivirals to have them ready and have stocks. The ultimate goal is to arrive at a universal vaccine for H5N1, H3N2, H1N1 and also Sars-CoV-2. It's not easy, but we have the technology."
The author of the article in the NYT is of the same opinion, who wrote: “We have many of the necessary tools, including vaccines. What is missing is a sense of urgency and immediate action […] This time we have not only the warning but also many of the tools needed to fend off a pandemic. We must not wait until it is too late."
THE ECONOMIC IMPACT
In addition to the terrible impact on biodiversity and the risk of a pandemic affecting humans, avian flu is also becoming a major problem for the agricultural industry and due to the rise in prices of products such as turkey meat and eggs which, in United States, recorded a 300% increase along with a loss of more than 44 million laying hens , or about 4-5% of production.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/sanita/siamo-pronti-a-una-potenziale-pandemia-di-influenza-aviaria/ on Wed, 15 Feb 2023 14:22:36 +0000.