Artificial intelligence, drones and soldier robots. What the new arms race will look like
Giuseppe Gagliano's analysis
France – as indeed the American DARPA – is making significant progress in relation to the so-called augmented soldier. In fact, there is no doubt that future wars will present an increasingly sophisticated dimension at the technological level.
It is therefore legitimate to ask how technological innovation will modify the future war.
Armies have become addicted to technology. On the one hand, the future of weapons seems marked. In current armies, and even more so in future ones, a password now dominates unchallenged, namely the interarming of command structures such as the tactical pawns deployed in operations ("combined armed battle groups") which prefigures the next big step : the "inter-harmonization" of capabilities.
The exponential speed of innovation resulting from the digital revolution seems capable of overturning the current situation. Added to this is the effect of technological breakthroughs: quantum computing, which will defeat current encryption and stealth techniques – the NSA is already working on quantum counter-encryption strategies – artificial intelligence, which allows a system to "improve" learning from his experiences; additive manufacturing or 3D printing (adding material); the high speed of the missiles (over Mach 5, or 6,100 km / h); direct-effect weapons, lasers and other microwave electron guns.
These technological breakthroughs are fueling a new arms race. The country that becomes the leader in artificial intelligence "will be the one that dominates the world," Putin said.
In this specific area, China intends to take a leading role. Beijing has unveiled its calendar : reach the United States in 2020, surpass it in 2025, become the world leader in 2030. Not only that. Beijing – like the US – intends to robotize war. Future robots and other military drones will be armed and will be able to "engage" the enemy in complete autonomy; Westerners imagine the prospect of one day being faced with a swarm of "killer robots".
The United States officially embarked on this race for "game changers" at the end of 2014. The Department of Defense launched an extensive research and technical-operational studies program called "The third offset strategy" (TOS), referring to strategies that gave it military superiority during the Cold War (that of deterrence, then of guided weapons).
However, one of the most important challenges in terms of military technology will be the interconnection of the various military platforms. Information from each sensor will be centralized for analysis by powerful algorithms before being reset to the lowest decision levels in the form of a detailed, real-time understanding of the battlefield. By neutralizing the effects of the "fog of war" and widening the soldiers' field of vision, this advance will give substance to "fiery combat" or "network warfare".
According to numerous military analysts, the war of the future will be substantially digital and therefore will require transmission speeds and a wide and systematic use of artificial intelligence.
For this very reason, the militarization of space is inevitable. The Chinese and the Americans are ahead. Beijing has shown that it can destroy a space object from space.
The missile field is the subject of particular innovations. In the field of miniaturization, the American Raytheon has developed a laser-guided mini missile for infantry and special forces, the Pike. 45 cm long, weighing 900 g, it pushes bullets from 40 mm to 2,000 m. The French, Americans, Russians and Chinese are working to bring hyper-fast missiles and gliders online by 2030. These weapons will allow for a near-instant nuclear or conventional response in the event of aggression. Their shots will be accurate over long distances.
At sea, advances in electronics and droning on moving platforms are leading to new forms of combat. The US Navy is testing a unique naval drone prototype: the Sea Hunter is designed to navigate for three months in total autonomy.
The development of armed drones and robots is an important trend. True in all environments, their invasion will be slower on earth, the more complex environment for autonomous systems.
For example, Reaper aerial drones have become essential for units pursuing jihadists in the Sahel. Uncle Sam's planes are armed with missiles. Recently, France has also decided to use it. For its part, France with Thales is experimenting with the AUSS, a torpedo-shaped drone that operates underwater and on the surface.
Across the Atlantic, Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland has expanded the boundaries we know. His teams designed the Cracuns drone using additive printing. After a discreet dive more than 100 meters deep in salt water for several months, the machine took off to carry out reconnaissance or jamming missions. In the no-man's land between the two Koreas, Seoul deploys and remotely controls robots armed with machine guns and grenade launchers. In Syria, the Russians are said to have used mine clearance robots and tracked vehicles equipped with machine guns. The United States now spends a budget of $ 5 billion annually on drone acquisition. Still ahead on these issues, the Marine Corps plans to equip all its units with a reconnaissance robot. Their French counterparts are considering forming logistical convoys with autonomous vehicles for travel located behind combat zones.
One factor will weigh heavily on the choices that will shape the equipment of modern armies in the coming decades: the exponential cost of advanced technologies and the necessary compromise between quality and quantity. All the more so as some of the innovation is destined to proliferate and close the gap in military superiority resulting from the high-tech arms race.
However, thanks to the combination of advances in artificial intelligence and nanotechnology, biotechnology and neuroscience, the soldier himself will soon be transformed into the "Iron man".
Darpa, the main US agency that oversees research for military purposes, runs the Talos program. This exoskeleton developed for special forces outlines the "smart armor" that will gradually enter service. In addition to the effect of increasing the soldier's resistance tenfold, the system contains a liquid that freezes in the event of an impact, a sort of extra light bulletproof layer; if there is bleeding, a mechanism will help the blood to clot. It has reversible heating to manage body temperature. It will include a patch to prevent dehydration and contact lenses for night vision. The soldier equipped with Talos will wear a self-decontaminating and electromagnetic wave absorbing mesh, use a smart ammunition rifle (programmed to detonate after a set flight time or optically guided in real time). Its built-in laser will cut through the armored glass to allow the bullet to hit the target inside the protected building or vehicle.
Among the projects of the US agency there is even a device inspired by the adhesive surface of the gecko intended to be placed on the hands of an infantryman to help him climb vertical walls.
In the United States, the culture of pragmatism and the available budgets favor all-out experimentation. However, many analysts observe that there is an evident danger in the creation of a soldier entirely dominated by artificial intelligence and a war built on technology, that is, ethical and legal problems that will be very difficult to solve despite the official – politically correct – optimism. ministries and staffs. Despite technological innovation, the fact remains that underestimating the asymmetric warfare strategies – such as those recently implemented in Afghanistan by the Taliban who, relying on a broad and widespread ideological and religious consensus within the population, were able after 19 years of war to defeat the technological power of NATO – constitutes a strategic mistake of enormous importance.
The lessons of the Algerian and Vietnam War seem to have taught nothing.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/innovazione/intelligenza-artificiale-droni-e-robot-soldato-come-sara-la-nuova-corsa-agli-armamenti/ on Sat, 12 Dec 2020 07:13:35 +0000.