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Because Biden is not really going to defend Ukraine. Dario Fabbri’s analysis

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Because Biden is not really going to defend Ukraine. Dario Fabbri's analysis

The US-Russia negotiation on Ukraine. Putin's aims. Biden's goals. And the position of Italy. The point of Dario Fabbri, geopolitical analyst

The time has come for negotiations on the Ukrainian question. The winds of war seem to have subsided, although not entirely dissipated. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov assured that Russian President Vladimir Putin is " willing to negotiate " and added that "Ukraine is only part of the problem, it is part of the bigger problem of security guarantees for Russia and of course President Putin is willing to negotiate ”.

A two-month long negotiation on Ukraine

“A huge negotiation has been underway for months – said Dario Fabbri , geopolitical analyst, during Omnibus on La7 -. This does not mean that when there are great powers at stake there is only negotiation, often the great powers negotiate through the threats of war and often, as history teaches, they negotiate through war ”. Yet the declarations of the very last few hours appear to be relaxing, especially on the part of Russia. “The crack referred to is the fact that the only ones who have to decide are the Americans . The Russians are asking them for a truce in neighboring countries – according to Fabbri -. Americans from Moscow are being asked to stop with containment against them. Translated into simpler terms, Russia is asking not to welcome Ukraine and Belarusian women into NATO ”.

US signals to Russia on Ukraine and beyond

The dialogue between Russia and the US has never stopped, although it has not always happened in explicit terms. “The US has sent many signals to the Kremlin. The most important signal, very difficult to translate, is when the US continues to announce that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent – explains the analyst -. Beyond the datum itself, because there is a possibility but it is the extreme ratio, when the Americans announce what they are saying to Russia is "we will not defend Ukraine, we do not consider Ukraine our sphere of flu, we will not die for Kiev ”. Coming out of the language of war, Washington says to Moscow “you don't want Ukraine in NATO? The negotiation takes place on these terms ".

Containment of Russia and the Chinese Theater

The US, therefore, must decide whether to give Russia a respite in its containment. “Putin has put something more complex on the table which is not just the issue of missile batteries in Poland – underlines Fabbri -. It is the relationship between Russia and China , otherwise it is not clear why eight years after the loss of Ukraine today the Kremlin has this aggressive attitude. In fact, Russia loses Ukraine 8 years ago . Russia is saying to the USA: “ you should give us respite because in this way we do not crush ourselves on China , it is not convenient for you to have two enemies at the same time, on the contrary we can help you in this sense”.

The relationship between Russia and China

According to Fabbri, Russia's " turn to the east " is not Moscow's first choice and the hand held out to the US confirms this. “I have always believed little in Russia moving towards the East. This does not mean that the turn towards the East is not real, but for the Russians it has always been a plan B – wrote Fabbri -. Russia is naturally distinct from Europe but it must be considered that the Russians perceive themselves as united with the other peoples of the Old Continent on the basis of a European sense that is very different from what we understand. To put it bluntly, this Russian feeling of European belonging consists in racial closeness, Russians are and feel white . In its history, Russia discovers itself European when it invades Siberia and realizes how the natives originating in the area were very different from the European Russians. Russia uses Asia to remind the world of its geographical extension , but the heart of the country is European Russia (Moscow, St. Petersburg and partly the Caucasus) ”.

Hybrid Warfare: Just a Slogan?

In the last few hours, the hypothesis of a hybrid war , of an infowar fought with computer and cyber weapons, has been making its way. “ These are slogans that work a lot, it's another thing to see if they are true – remarked Fabbri -. With 120-130,000 men, Ukraine cannot be occupied, it takes at least twice as much. You can't go within an hour to declare the Russian invasion done and then just describe it as an infowar, the silliest one. A limited Russian attack across the Ukrainian border can happen , it cannot prove a large-scale invasion it would be madness because it would be a tragedy on a strategic level ”.

Putin, great tactician and limping strategist

“The strategy – explained Fabbri in recent days – corresponds to the absolute and ancestral intentions that must necessarily be absolved by a community for it to live. Therefore, the strategy is not invented, it exists and must be recognized . This is by no means simple. The task of the tactician, on the other hand, is to implement the more or less recognized strategy. The strategy is the final purpose, while the modality through which it is pursued is the tactic ”. In this sense Vladimir Putin would be, according to the analyst, an excellent tactician and a limping strategist . “Putin knows that he cannot win the war on a strategic level in Ukraine, he can enter the country but keeping it is another thing, and then he would lose the negotiation – added Fabbri to La7 -. With this maneuver he is forcing the Americans to negotiate with him , because the US does not consider Ukraine a strategic country, Russia does. The Chinese are watching all this with popcorn, they want to see how weak the Russians are and how confused the Americans are and they are having a lot of fun. "

The energy question in the Ukraine dossier

Europeans are following the story very carefully because Russia is the main source of gas imports from the Old Continent . For Fabbri, however, the tragedy would be “ in the very short term ”: “Russia needs to export gas as much as we need it in these months of the year to warm up. Russia does not live on anything else […], it cannot turn off the taps for very long ”. According to analysts, the interventions of the United States, with their liquefied gas , would not be enough to compensate for the absence of Russian flows.

Russian gas to China

“Russia is respecting the gas supply contracts , it is not putting huge quantities of gas on the so-called spot market as it usually does in winter because they are sold – explained Fabbri -. This year it is giving up on these revenues because it is engaged in a tug-of-war with the US and the West in general , so it is giving up part of the profit. Also because a part is guaranteed by China which today imports many more Russian hydrocarbons than it happened three years ago ”.

Superpowers: strategy before the economy

In the question of gas it is necessary to pay attention to the fact that for the great powers strategy comes before the economy, and therefore of economic returns. “Let's not misunderstand the great powers. The great powers do not act for economic reasons, on the contrary at times they are self -defeating – underlined Fabbri -. Russia has no nostalgia for well-being because for millennia it has never known it but in the same way the USA, which knows well-being, put the reasons for the strategy before the economic ones. It is the satellite countries that favor economic reasons, Italy is an economic country as is Germany . The strategy goes above the economy for the great powers ”.

Foreign Minister Di Maio's trip to Russia

"When there is a vote on sanctions against the Russian Federation, Italy can impose a veto". This was said by Maria Zakharova , the spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry, interviewed by 'Quarta Repubblica', on Rete 4. Today the mission of Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio in Moscow begins and the attitude of the Italian government seems to be less explicit favorable to Russia. “In one of his speeches he cited article 10 of the Washington Treaty which provides that the entry of new countries into NATO is functional to an increase in the security guarantee – explained Fabbri -. Countries in NATO must join if they increase the organization's defense. So let us ask ourselves if an entry into NATO of Ukraine or Belarus increases NATO's defense or not. In this there is a lot of the Italian vision, that is to say “we have loyalty towards NATO, but let's ask ourselves if we should join Ukraine and Belarus”.

This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/perche-biden-non-difendera-davvero-lucraina-lanalisi-di-dario-fabbri/ on Tue, 15 Feb 2022 10:07:42 +0000.