Because Biden wants Putin to attack Ukraine. Doctor-Martino dialogue
All parallel convergences of Russia and the US in Ukraine. The role of Qatar on gas in Europe according to the US administration. And the internal weaknesses of Biden and Putin. Conversation between Germano Dottori (Limes) and Lucio Martino (Guarini Institute)
Cui prodest the threat of war in Ukraine? Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and American President Joe Biden . To support the parallel convergence of interests of the two leaders are prof. Germano Dottori , geopolitics analyst and scientific advisor to Limes , and Lucio Martino , member of the Guarini Institute for Public Affair at John Cabot University and former research director at Cemiss, Military Center for Strategic Studies.
Ukraine dossier
"The foreign policy objectives currently pursued by the American administration are clearly Wilsonian, the extension and protection of democracy everywhere are part of a neo-conservative strategy and ideology – underlined Lucio Martino during a conversation on the page Professor Dottori's Facebook – After all, the foreign policy of the Biden administration is in the hands of the likes of Victoria Nuland , the wife of Robert Kagan , the ideologist of the Bush administration son , that of the Middle Eastern wars, but also Jack Sullivan , the National Security Advisor, or Antony Blinken , the Secretary of State himself. This is the same team that signed the 2003 US foreign policy, the Iraq war, the 2008 Kosovo issue and the 2014 Ukrainian crisis. This is a team that aims to downsize the Russian Federation, from this point on. ideologically there is coherence ”.
Victoria Nuland and the 2014 Ukrainian crisis scandal
Victoria Nuland is a long-time diplomat, was deputy director of the former Soviet affairs department during Clinton's presidency and an advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney . George Bush jr appointed her ambassador in Brussels to NATO while with President Obama she became assistant to the secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, managing diplomatic relations with European countries and with NATO. He played a central role in the management of the Ukrainian crisis of 2014, and was at the center of a scandal over that “ Fuck The EU ” pronounced during a private phone call with the US ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt . The call was intercepted and posted on Youtube .
Biden and the difficulties of domestic politics
About a year after his election , Joe Biden is already in dire straits . His personal consensus has dropped steadily from 55% to 36% , the hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan has given his image a shot, inflation has risen to 6% for the first time in decades, and finally the federal deficit hit the record of 3 trillion dollars . "The Biden administration has hardly enjoyed a honeymoon with his electorate – added Martino -. Inflation is the highest in forty years now, which has even led to a shortage of basic necessities . It is a country divided culturally, politically and even ethnically along identity lines that are the same as those of the civil war 150 years ago ”. In this context, a success in foreign policy could represent an escape route. " The Biden administration looks to foreign policy to seek affirmation and success , that theater could be Ukraine."
American interests in Qatar
One of the reasons that moves US interests from an anti-Russian perspective concerns Qatari gas . According to Lucio Martino, the US would aim to “ reorient European interests away from Russia through an even harsher sanctioning device than what is currently in place. I would relate the Ukrainian crisis to the agreement just reached with Qatar, which is another major producer of natural gas ”. Qatar “was elected to the rank of allied country almost as if it were a member of NATO . The grand design, if there is one pursued by the Biden administration, seems to me this ”, Martino commented.
Putin seeks successes in foreign policy
Distracting attention from internal problems with foreign policy is not the only attitude of the American administration. “ Putin also needs some success in international politics since the management of the pandemic was not among the happiest ones – stressed Germano Dottori -. I have the impression that the success that Putin is pursuing right now in Ukraine is to set the stakes and prevent the Atlantic alliance from expanding further east, arguing that the Russian Federation cannot accept it, and also trying to demonstrate to the current Ukrainian leaders that the security guarantee provided by the West to their country is not so strong. The dialectical game that is being established between the parties will at a certain point reach a moment of truth ".
War: a plausible hypothesis to trigger sanctions
War, according to Dottori, would be a plausible hypothesis. “ My impression is that the Americans are trying to convince the Russians that aggression can pay off – according to Limes ' scientific advisor -. The moment they let the whole world know that war is probable in some way they make it a normal, even acceptable hypothesis in which international public opinion is prepared and on the other hand by abandoning the Ukrainians to their fate they put Putin in the position of having to consider an attack easy or in any case a situation in which Ukraine finds itself completely alone ”.
The attack on the European economy
All this can have huge consequences. " If the Russians do not attack, the American strategy makes a hole in the water – added Doctors -. If the Russians attack and even carry out a limited offensive, the sanctions that could be the real goal of the American administration are triggered, in order to permanently separate Russia from the European energy market and somehow deal a blow to the solidity of the economy. European at a time when Europe emerges from the pandemic and needs to relaunch. The strategy has multiple objectives in which Europe can also be a target . A complex game is being played on Ukraine in which the Europeans, the Americans and the Russians are not completely aligned, on the contrary to me they seem completely in competition with each other ".
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/ucraina-russia-usa/ on Mon, 14 Feb 2022 12:02:53 +0000.