Because Biden will have to deal with Iran. Report Wsj
According to the WSJ, Iran knew about the Hamas attack on Israel but Tehran denies it and Biden does not comment. In the last three years he has avoided any confrontation and attempted to appease the country led by Khamenei, appearing weak in the eyes of the enemy, but now he will no longer be able to postpone the confrontation. The Wall Street Journal article
US President Joe Biden showed appropriate outrage on Tuesday over last weekend's Hamas massacre, and his pledge of support for Israel is welcome. But one crucial word was missing from his White House remarks: Iran. Tehran is Hamas' master of terror and its assault on Israel highlights the failure of its Iranian strategy.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran gave approval for the bloody Hamas assault at an Oct. 2 meeting in Beirut. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has denied this and the United States says it has "no specific evidence" of Iran's agreement. But Iran has long been the main benefactor of Hamas and the jihad in Gaza, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shiite militias in Iraq and Yemen. Everyone praised Hamas's assault, as did Khamenei.
This is what Iran sends weapons and money to Hamas. Hamas killed at least 22 Americans in the attack, at last count, and others are now prisoners. Biden has a duty to bring them home and avenge those deaths.
It is implausible that Hamas struck without Iran's approval, knowing that Israel's response would be devastating. One wonders whether the massacres are part of a deliberate strategy to elicit such a response. An Israeli ground assault could be the pretext for Hezbollah to open a second front in northern Israel.
Hezbollah receives about $700 million a year from Iran and its stockpile of missiles totals 100,000 or more, with greater accuracy than rockets fired from Gaza. They could hit most of Israel. A Hezbollah attack would also require Iran's approval.
Biden warned unnamed countries on Tuesday not to take advantage of the war in Gaza, and his dispatch of a carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean is a useful show of support for Israel. But the question is whether Iran will believe this deterrence attempt after Biden's behavior over the past three years.
***
It is worth remembering how much Biden tried to please the mullahs of Tehran. Upon taking office, his administration ended Donald Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign. He eased enforcement of sanctions on Iran's oil sales, which were worth tens of billions. He also sent an Iran sympathizer, Robert Malley, to renegotiate the 2015 nuclear deal. (Malley has since been sidelined for unexplained reasons that may be related to security concerns.)
Iran has rejected these requests. The last "understanding", before the Hamas invasion, provided that Iran would slow down or block the enrichment of uranium for the construction of a bomb, while the United States would leave Iran with billions of dollars held by 'Iraq and South Korea. This included the $6 billion that was part of the exchange for five Americans held hostage by Iran.
Biden did not even respond aggressively when representatives of Iran attacked the Americans. Under questioning from Senator Tom Cotton, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Iran or its proxies have launched 83 attacks against Americans since Biden took office, but the US has responded militarily only 4 times.
One goal of all this appears to have been to avoid any confrontation with Iran until the 2024 elections. But Iran clearly interpreted this as a sign of US weakness. The Hamas assault should finally convince Biden that Iran has no intention of sticking to his timetable. He will order his proxies to strike when it serves his purposes and he sees a vulnerability.
Iran's current goal may be to scuttle the nascent rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, at a time when the United States is assisting Ukraine against Russia. Iran is led by a revolutionary regime that wants to destroy Israel and dominate the region. He wants a “Shiite crescent” of power from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean.
***
The question is whether Biden will adapt to this reality and abandon his appeasement strategy. He can start by blocking the transfer of the $6 billion and return to maximum pressure. It may also have to decide whether to assist Israel militarily if Hezbollah opens a second front in the country's north.
Israel can defeat both adversaries, but at a high cost. If Israel's new unity government, announced Wednesday, asks for U.S. help from heaven or otherwise, Biden would be wise to grant it. Iran and the world will sense further American weakness if it does not help a solid ally. Senator Lindsey Graham has proposed that the United States bomb Iranian oil facilities, and Iran needs to know that its military sites, its nuclear program and its oil fields are not off limits if it escalates its war against Israel.
The story of another Democratic President is instructive. For three years, Jimmy Carter sought détente with the Soviet Union. But the Soviets sensed weakness and promoted revolution around the world. When they invaded Afghanistan, Carter recognized reality and began a defense buildup that set the stage for Reagan's rearmament.
Biden now faces a similar showdown with Iran. For three years it has attempted to appease Tehran and tame its revolutionary ambitions. This hope exploded with the Iranian-backed massacre of more than 1,000 Israelis and Americans. Will Biden be able to return to reality like Carter? His legacy may depend on it.
(Excerpt from the foreign press review edited by eprcomunicazione )
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/perche-biden-dovra-fare-i-conti-con-liran-report-wsj/ on Sun, 15 Oct 2023 06:05:29 +0000.