Because China will win the war in Ukraine. Fabbri’s analysis
The main strategic consequence of Russia's war in Ukraine could be the strengthening of China. Here because. The analysis by Dario Fabbri, curator of Scenari
The main strategic effect of the Ukrainian war could be the strengthening of China. Apparently Beijing does not figure among the belligerents, nor among the subjects most affected by the fighting, yet it can benefit more than anyone else. Especially if the conflict were to go on and on, with much greater damage for Russians and other European countries.
A WAR AGAINST NATO
While avoiding running into the secondary dimension of the sanctions imposed by Washington on Moscow, the People's Republic undoubtedly sided with the Bear, regardless of overseas grievances. He avoided condemning the Kremlin in the UN, did not blame Putin for the massacres that took place on the ground, while he supplied ammunition to the anti-Ukrainian offensive. For the Mandarin leadership, an almost obligatory choice of field.
STRATEGIES
For strategic needs. First of all, Beijing is characterized by a blatant anti-Western sentiment, by the spirit of revenge for that century of humiliations, placed between the mid-nineteenth century and the Second World War, characterized by colonialism of European origin. In the Sinic interpretation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is also a war against NATO, against the Washingtonian system, with the Kremlin as a subject halfway between the two worlds.
So, China imagines that it will soon face Western countries in turn, perhaps not part of the Atlantic Alliance, but the same ones that are fighting remotely against Moscow today. In the coming years in the coastal seas the empire of the Center could militarily challenge Americans, British, French, perhaps Germans and Italians, therefore it is interested in hitting its means and morale in the ongoing conflict, it wants to support the Kremlin which can limit its radius. action, at least on the European continent. As if the current crisis were the antechamber of what could happen elsewhere, as if taking sides now would serve to weaken the enemy of tomorrow.
DISTRACT THE ENEMY
Again, the spread of hostilities greatly distracts the United States, distancing them from the Indo-Pacific, or from the most strategic quadrant for Beijing. Taken by the intention of sinking the opponent that was Soviet, Washington inevitably grants greater leeway to the Chinese in its neighboring countries, risking underestimating the dynamics of the place to look above all at Europe.
By strengthening the Russian Federation, at the moment of greatest difficulty, the People's Republic is forcing the United States to concentrate again on the Old Continent, rather than focusing everything on the Far East, a short circuit considered very propitious by Xi Jinping.
SELLING TO CHINA
Not only. Beijing is aware that a severely weakened Moscow would exist to its advantage, it would inevitably make it more powerful.
In the coming months, in the face of a partial closure by the West, Putin will fly to China to place those hydrocarbons, in addition to wheat, on which his country lives. Then the Mandarin leadership will show itself in favor of supporting the Bear, because it is sure of getting prices lower than those currently paid.
With the result of benefiting from affordable conditions, indispensable for supporting the national industry and feeding the immense national population. In search of new landing places to make up for the Euro-Atlantic closure, the Kremlin will have to offer itself to the empire of the Center, its historical enemy, a contiguous subject that disputes its presence in Siberia. For Moscow the worst of all possible scenarios, yet the only one that is truly viable in such a critical phase.
TWO LITIGANTS
Consequence: in the medium term, China will increase its size thanks to the best of what Russia can sell, finding precious, almost unexpected resources in the nearby Eurasian. If the Dragon ate the Bear, at least on the commercial level, he would have many more arrows to play in the final competition with the United States.
And this is the greatest plus that Beijing can draw from the events, simultaneously offered by the infamous Russian campaign in Ukraine and the extraordinary American will to punish Putin's desperate ease. In fact, the dream of every great power, to obtain the maximum result with the minimum effort by taking advantage of two quarrels. With the United States committed to tearing apart Russia rather than bringing it closer to divide the enemy camp, thus crushing Moscow on Beijing, making a physiologically distinct front more compact.
FRENCH CONCERNS
This is what worries the French president, Emmanuel Macron, who is harshly critical of the violent climax fueled by the White House. Macron advised Biden to be more cautious with his words – especially after the American described the Bucha tragedy as genocide.
Paris is above all worried about the new American activism in Europe, which risks nullifying any community project of military integration, but would also like to prevent Russia from sinking into the arms of China, a denial of that space (more or less) united from Lisbon to Vladivostok, dreamed of by the French leader.
But this is the main strategic effect of the war in Ukraine, unleashed by Moscow, suffered by Kiev, experienced by Washington, exploited by Beijing.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/cina-guerra-ucraina/ on Mon, 25 Apr 2022 06:23:18 +0000.