Because coal will break all records
According to the International Energy Agency, in 2022 coal consumption in the world will be the highest ever. Previous estimates turned out to be completely wrong – here's why
According to a report by the International Energy Agency, global coal consumption will reach an all-time high in 2022, surpassing the record set in 2013.
DATA AND FORECASTS
According to the organization, the use of coal – the most polluting hydrocarbon – will peak this year or next, after which it will level off until 2025, before starting to decline.
In 2022, coal demand will increase by 1.2 percent to 8 billion tons.
Coal is not only the most used source in the world for electricity generation – as well as a fuel necessary for the production of steel and cement -, but also the "dirtiest" one in terms of greenhouse gases released: its combustion is the single most major source of carbon dioxide emissions.
THE (WRONG) PREDICTIONS OF THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
In 2020, the International Energy Agency had estimated a 7 percent drop in global coal consumption, predicting that its use would never return to pre-pandemic levels thanks to the acceleration of ecological transition plans.
That was not the case: not only was the actual decline in coal use in 2020 less profound than estimated (4.4 percent less, not 7), but it also turned out to be less lasting than expected, he recalls Quartz .
THE WAR IN UKRAINE, THE GAS CRISIS AND THE COAL BOOM
COP26, the United Nations climate conference held in Glasgow in October-November 2021, promised to "consign coal to history", replacing it with cleaner sources.
But a few months later, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has disrupted energy markets and unleashed a frenzied rush to grab natural gas. The difficulties in finding it, due both to the scarcity of alternative supplies and to the very high prices, have led many governments – in Europe especially Germany – to fall back on coal.
Also contributing to the increase in the use of coal in the world were the drought in China, which reduced the generation of hydroelectric energy, and technical problems in the reactors in France , which severely limited the production capacity of electricity from nuclear power.
WHERE DEMAND INCREASES (AND WHERE IT DECLINES)
In 2022, the demand for coal grew both in Europe and in India and in China (the largest consumer in the world). Instead, it decreased in the United States, where there is great availability of natural gas at much lower prices than in Europe.
EMISSIONS
According to a study by the Global Carbon project, in 2022 the consumption of fossil fuels – above all oil and coal – will generate 37.5 billion tons of CO2 emissions: it is the highest value ever recorded by the organization.
As the Washington Post wrote, there seems to be a correlation between the economic crisis and the drop in emissions. Indeed, CO2 levels decreased in both 1973 and 1979, years of oil shocks; then again in 2008 and 2009, due to the Great Recession; and also in 2020, due to the coronavirus pandemic and lockdowns.
HOW RENEWABLES WILL PERFORM IN 2022
The latest report by the International Energy Agency on the state of renewables states that in the next five years the growth of global energy capacity from clean sources will double, increasing by almost 2,400 gigawatts, to reach 5,640 GW in all.
“Renewables were already expanding rapidly,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the organization. “But the global energy crisis,” exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, “has pushed them into a new and extraordinary phase of even faster growth, as countries are trying to capitalize on the benefits of energy security.”
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/record-consumo-carbone-2022/ on Fri, 30 Dec 2022 08:04:39 +0000.