Because Europe has done everything wrong with Hungary and Poland. Speak Friedman
In the midst of a very serious crisis between Russia and Ukraine, which could threaten European security, Brussels punishes Poland and Hungary, two countries that are important for containing Moscow. According to analyst George Friedman, Europe is "pleasantly blind" to the real dangers
George Friedman, a naturalized American Hungarian political scientist, wrote an article in Geopolitical Futures (the online geopolitical magazine he founded) to criticize the European Union's decision to punish Hungary and Poland in a time of serious crisis with the Russia which could threaten the security of Europe itself.
THE BACKGROUND
Last week the Court of Justice of the European Union, rejecting the appeal of Hungary and Poland, ruled that Brussels can withhold economic funds from member countries guilty of violations of the rule of law: both Warsaw and Budapest, in fact, are guided by semi-authoritarian governments and disrespectful of some democratic freedoms.
BECAUSE IT IS IMPORTANT
The ruling of the Court, Friedman writes, will allow the European Union to impose sanctions against Poland and Hungary and to suspend the transfers of money from the Community budget to these two countries: these are large sums, and consequently important for the sustenance of the Polish and Hungarian economies.
But this is not the real crux of the matter, according to him. "What is important", he explains, "is that this decision, pending for more than a year, was published in the midst of the confrontation with Russia on Ukraine, at a time when Europe needs to present a united front ".
On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the deployment of troops in the self-proclaimed separatist (and pro-Russian) republics of Donetsk and Lugansk after formally recognizing their independence from Ukraine.
“Now”, continues Friedman, “courts are sometimes known to be oblivious to realities outside the courtroom, but not to overwhelming realities […] Poland and Hungary are part of the line from the Baltic to the sea. Black who would absorb a possible Russian attack on Europe. There will probably be no such attack, but 'probably' is not a very respected term in the history of geopolitics ”.
WHAT POLAND THINKS ABOUT RUSSIA
Poland patrols the plains of northern Europe, which Friedman calls "the main invasion route in both directions." Poland is a country hostile to Russia, and these feelings of fear and opposition to Moscow "are inherent in its DNA".
Warsaw recently purchased Abrams model tanks from the United States for $ 6 billion; these vehicles will be halfway between Germany (main European economy) and Belarus (Russian ally, and enemy of NATO in the event of a collision). In a moment of such acute crisis, the ruling of the Court of Justice sends Poland a message that for Friedman is wrong: the Poles could find themselves facing their "ancient enemy" and Brussels "does not have the wit to postpone the sentence" on the blocking of loans.
AND HUNGARY?
"The Hungarian situation is the opposite of the Polish one," he writes. The Russophobia of Warsaw is opposed by the pro-Russianism of Budapest: recently the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, met with Putin and declared that he agreed with his security requests (the non-enlargement of NATO near the borders Russians and the withdrawal of military capabilities from Eastern Europe); in return, he received the option to buy gas at a discounted price.
"Hungary is not as strategically significant as Poland", Friedman points out, but Europe should "do everything possible" to avoid its approach to Moscow and bring it back into Europe: "instead it has chosen precisely this moment to punish Budapest and threaten to cut funding ”.
"EUROPE IS A STRANGE PLACE"
"Europe is a strange place," writes Friedman. The two main powers of the Union, France and Germany, have sided with the United States in the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and are aware of the need to strengthen NATO's eastern front. Poland and Hungary are members of the Atlantic alliance. And, as such, "Poland should be supported at all levels, while Hungary should be reminded of the benefits of membership as well as its obligations."
According to him, the European Union has done the opposite: perhaps because it is unaware of the danger it runs, "it has allowed serious actions to be imposed at this moment against two important NATO members, one committed to defending Europe and the another in need of persuasion ".
EUROPEAN INSULARITY
Referring to the neutrality of the courts with respect to what happens outside the courtrooms, Friedman writes that "prudence and a sense of proportion would require the postponement of a verdict that goes against the priority requirements": that is, guaranteeing the security of Europe from Russia , whose military operations in eastern Ukraine could span the entire country and beyond.
"Whether Russia's actions are real or fake is not the point," according to the analyst. "The fact is that there is an insularity that has emerged in Europe since 1991 which argues that the only thing that threatens Europe is the exaggerated fears of the Americans, and that the rule of law transcends the reality of tanks." But "there are real dangers out there", regardless of Russian military build-up, and "the rule of law does not beat military strength."
“The decision to speak out against Poland and Hungary is not the pivot of the story. But it comes from a system of law and government that is voluntarily and pleasantly blind to what is out there, ”concludes Friedman.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/george-friedman-europa-ungheria-polonia-crisi-ucraina/ on Wed, 23 Feb 2022 14:35:09 +0000.