Because I am not convinced by Gualtieri’s theses on Recovery and surroundings
The interview given by the Minister of Economy, Roberto Gualtieri, to Corriere della Sera read and commented on by Gianfranco Polillo
Of the long interview granted by Roberto Gualtieri to Federico Fubini – two pages of Il Corriere della sera – some things are convincing. Others much less. The opening words on justice are good: “The Commission wants organic packages of investments and reforms. And he's right. Eliminating the backlog of processes is important, but if we want to obtain the necessary resources to do so, we must demonstrate that a new backlog will not form ”. In short: the queen test, to stay on the field. But what does the Minister of Justice, not head of the government delegation, the pentastellato Alfonso Bonafede think of? Especially his corporat-justicialist associates. Those, just to understand, according to which only they can think about public ethics and sector reforms.
For the rest, however, albeit with this not insignificant change, the speech was nothing more than a summary of the latest document prepared by Palazzo Chigi, titled with the subtitle: “Guidelines for the draft to be submitted to the CdM”. Those thirteen pages that so infuriated Matteo Renzi, which will consequently be revised, if you don't want to pull the plug on Count II. What is not convincing? First, the approach. We are in the presence of a mega financial law, destined to operate over the years. Perhaps a connection with that "legislature program" that is so much talked about? When, on the other hand, it would have been necessary to find that lever capable of modifying, as has also been said by way of simple propaganda, an old "development model".
This is beyond the reach of this majority, but perhaps of all the political forces currently represented in Parliament. As far as we are concerned, we would have preferred that, more modestly, the most critical points of the Italian situation were identified, to which an effort to be made corresponded. So not the usual distribution of loaves and fish, which is typical of a centralized decision, such as that provided for by the budget law, which, in normal conditions, should provide for the entire financial year. But specific programmatic options and inevitably destined to dig deep, against the flatness of an all-encompassing program.
What does it mean? Say, for example, “I am not intervening in favor of the whole industry, because those companies linked to the international market are doing well, if not better than their French and German competitors. On the other hand, I am interested in all activities related above all to the internal market ”. Because, as the European Commission (Com (2019) 651 final) believes: “with a net international investment position close to balance, the external position is stable and the current account is in surplus. This surplus is partly linked to weakness in domestic demand and low wage growth. The stagnation of productivity growth affects non-cost competitiveness and potential GDP growth, which, in turn, hinders the reduction of public debt ”.
An indispensable premise to understand the deepest reasons for a crisis that has been dragging on since 2011: ten years which, regardless of the pandemic, have given rise to the long agony. The hope is that, also following the political crisis that the country is experiencing, a serious discussion can finally be started, on the occasion of the possible formation of a new government. Which is not a waste of time or an "adventure". But the ordinary tool with which, in a democracy, we try to elaborate a political proposal that is in the interest of the country and goes in the right direction. After the chaotic babble of these months.
If this were the case, it would be possible to better resist the drift traced by the Minister of Economy. The indication, given half-heartedly and immediately denied, that in 2021 the public deficit could rise, as indicated by Fubini, in his question, to "12% of GDP". Not at all: reply from the minister. “The budget law forecast – he chirps – is for a deficit of 7 percent of GDP. To this must be added the cost of the new economic support package and the impact of a possible downward revision of growth. However, at present there is absolutely no reason to foresee a double-digit deficit in relation to GDP ”. From the series: "who wants to be happy, there is no certainty about tomorrow".
In the meantime, however, the next further budget overrun will be EUR 24 billion. Of which another 3 billion needed for health care. And this is where a new and disturbing chapter opens. In fact, the billions expected to face the pandemic become 21. Of these 18 are already foreseen in the new Recovery Plan, after the threats from Matteo Renzi. We are therefore moving by leaps and bounds towards the goal of 37 billion indicated as the maximum limit by the ESM. That could have already been forfeited since last spring, if the suspicions had not prevailed against a Europe considered stepmother and ready to "cheat" poor David. Despite the assurances provided by all the main heads of the Commission: Paolo Gentiloni in the lead. Power of the destructive force of a bad ideology.
In the end we could therefore be forced to a big rethink: due not to the pressure of Matteo Renzi , but to the stubbornness of things, against which it is difficult to fight. We will then discover how useless it was to waste precious time. You will discover the relative advantages of that proposal: starting from the very low interest rates and the length of the amortization period. Other than segmentation of the Italian public debt: as said several times by Claudio Borghi and Alberto Bagnai. Problem that does not exist, for the simple fact that the hedging of that loan will not give rise to the issue of securities, but will simply be securitized. The issue remains, however, one of the horns of the dilemma in that confused mix of divergent political proposals and strategies. Which are the clearest sign of a disruptive political crisis.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/perche-non-mi-convincono-le-tesi-di-gualtieri-su-recovery-e-dintorni/ on Sun, 10 Jan 2021 10:50:09 +0000.