Because India will be the US wild card in geopolitics

8 August 20213 years ago babelfish

For now, India's ties with Asian and Western democracies are unlikely to turn into alliances. But sooner or later India is destined to be part of the bloc of US-led democracies with an anti-Chinese function. Carlo Jean's analysis

The end of the cold war, which was followed in the last decade by the "hot peace" between Washington and Beijing, globalization and the economic and military growth of China, determining a new aggressiveness also on the Himalayan border, have changed the geopolitics of the India. They have made it impracticable to isolate the major powers from the "big game". China's expansion of influence in the Indian Ocean and Pakistan and its aggression on the Himalayan border directly affect it. Its economy is integrating into the globalized one. It desperately needs investment and technology transfers from abroad.

Despite these changes, New Delhi strives to follow the principles that have informed its foreign policy since independence: non-alignment with the two poles of the bipolar world and the pursuit of multilateralism. It is convinced that only they can allow it the flexibility necessary to achieve its national interests of strategic autonomy and efforts to transform its economic and political potential, connected with population growth, which will make it more populous than China in a few years. .

Its ambitions are for now moderated by internal instability, by the scarcity of economic and military resources, by the reluctance to the external projection of power, by the persuasion of being protected by geography. To the north and east from mountains and deserts; in the Indian Ocean from the Andeman and Nicobar islands transformed into fortresses, which control the accesses to the Strait of Malacca. The instability derives from the plurality of ethnic groups, languages and religions and from the fragmentation of the state. India cannot counter Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean and South Asia, which it considers to be an area of its exclusive control. The first is based on the so-called “pearl necklace”, that is, on the chain of bases that extend from Malaysia to the Arabian Sea and the African coasts. The second derives from the alliance with Pakistan, a traditional enemy of India, and from the vulnerability of the Northeast territories. From the latter derives the need to give priority to land defenses. 56% of India's defense budget goes to the Army. In the Navy only 15%. 29% to the Air Force, nuclear forces and common expenses.

Up to now, India's relative independence in the conflict between China and the US has been made possible by maintaining the excellent relations it always had with Moscow, its main arms supplier. However, they risk being eroded by the ever closer ties between Russia and China, by Russia's friendly relations with Pakistan, which began in 2015 but are now threatened by Pakistani support for the Afghan Taliban and, thirdly, by the improvement of relations of India with the USA. Russia can offer India very little except weapons and energy. Trade between the two countries amounts to just over $ 10 billion, while that with the US is $ 150 billion.

India is the "wild card" of the US to build a new world order compatible with their interests, overcoming the competition with China. It is an essential element of the so-called “Bloc of Democracies” promoted by Joe Biden. As such, he attended the latest G-7 meeting and is growing not only economic but also political and military ties with the US. Just think of the dissolving of India's perplexities towards QUAD (India, USA, Japan and Australia) and its naval exercises, the US support for the admission of New Delhi as a permanent member of the Security Council and the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the sale of critical technologies and the permission of New Delhi to refuel the US P-8 Poseidons on its bases.

The contrasts between India and China are incurable, despite the participation of the two countries in the SCO and in the BRICS group, in accordance with the principle of multilateralism. Nobody speaks anymore of “Cindia”, that is of integration between the two Asian giants. But not even of "Chimerica" (China and America), dreamed of by Robert Zoellick. India adheres to the US-sponsored "Indo-Pacific" concept, but sees itself separate from Eurasia and the Asia-Pacific region, which it thinks is too dominated by China. It is not part of APEC or RECEP, although it maintains excellent relations with Japan, with which it has numerous joint ventures in the Middle East and Africa, which began after the end of the Cold War and the beginning of the Indian policy of the “Look East ".

For now, India's ties to Asian and Western democracies are unlikely to turn into binding alliances. But sooner or later India is destined to be part of the bloc of US-led democracies with an anti-Chinese function. Unlike what happened in the "cold war" in the "cold peace" it is no longer possible to isolate oneself in a "third way". The speed of the process will depend on Chinese aggression and what Xi Jinping wants to achieve from the global superiority that China intends to achieve in 2049, the centenary of the creation of the People's Republic. As usual, the EU is absent from this "big game". While it is interested in India's growth, it does not intend to jeopardize its commercial interests with China. It overlooks geopolitical and security issues. Only the Asian democracies, first among which Japan and Australia, also consider the latter important. They are therefore reliable allies of the US and occupy a front row seat.

This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/perche-lindia-sara-il-jolly-usa-nella-geopolitica/ on Sun, 08 Aug 2021 07:32:43 +0000.