Because it will be the former M5S voters (not all left-wingers) who will decide the elections on 25 September
Challenges and scenarios in view of the vote. Polillo's point
If the second marriage, the one between Enrico Letta with Angelo Bonelli and Nicola Frantoianni, is not celebrated, we will make up for it. Not because we have something against the political formations that both represent, but because of consistency. What distinguishes an alliance from a simple "heap" is a minimum of programmatic harmony. Can you put the devil and holy water together? Who in all these months has spent himself, personally, for the Draghi Government and who, on the other hand, has sent him to the devil, denying him trust for more than 50 times? Finally, who believes that the "new nuclear" option, while the prices of energy commodoties are exploding, should be carefully considered and who, on the other hand, considers all this as a mere dung of the devil?
Cartesian concerns, Giuliano Ferrara would say, who even craves the need for an opening, by the PD, to the "grillozzi", as he calls them. In short, an infinite coalition with the head – why not? – Italia viva by Matteo Renzi and at the bottom the 5 stars. Ready, in turn, it would seem, to take charge of the formation of a populist group, extended to the Italian Left and Green Europe. And here then, at the end of these frantic negotiations, a minimum of clarity: three competing teams. The center-right (Brothers of Italy, the League, Forza Italia and a few old centrists), the center-left (+ Europe, Action and PD), the populists (5stelle, Italian Left and Green Europe). Out of the game, at least for the moment, Matteo Renzi, with his Italy alive. But there will be time.
Who will win, we will see on the evening of September 25, the date of the elections. Attempts to read in the coffee grounds, even if the center right on the card is more favored, leave some time they find. The simulations of Lorenzo Pregliasco (@youtrend) do not even convince us that much "if the Italian Left and Verdi left the coalition, the center-left could lose more or less the same colleges that it would have lost without an agreement with Calenda." They are not convincing due to an excess of polls, which seems to completely disregard the real conditions of the country. From the weariness of an electorate, which has difficulty choosing, but which is also sure that the old recipes of the past no longer work.
In the 2013 political elections, the coalition led by Mario Monti obtained 10.54 per cent of the votes in the House and 9.13 per cent in the Senate. The success of Beppe Grillo was instead certified by 25.55 per cent in the Chamber and 23.79 per cent in the Senate. One third of the voters had radically changed their voting habits. By choosing, in the first case, the man of austerity. In the second, complete strangers. All this demonstrates how profound the aversion towards the more traditional Italian political forces was. Believed, rightly or wrongly, to be co-responsible for the progressive decline of the country.
The bang of the following 2018 was even more violent. The 5 stars make the en plein, with over 32 percent of the votes, both in the Chamber and in the Senate. One step away from the all-time high of the DC (over 40 percent). But they lose everything, already the following year. The League jumps to 34.3 percent. They go down to 17.1. In short: Italy passes from the relative stability of the First Republic (half a century of life) to the growing schizophrenia of the Second. With a strong acceleration of instability starting, in fact, from 2013.
That was a turning point year. Consequence of both the American subprime crisis and sovereign debt. Crises that have had consequences on the entire global scenario. In Russia, Vladimir Putin abandons the attempt at westernizing modernization, to throw himself into the rediscovery of the great Russian imperial past, following the teachings of Aleksandr Dugin. China itself is trying to initiate a process of productive reconversion, more centered on the growth of its internal demand than on exports. In Europe there are countries that react better, such as Germany, and others, such as Spain, Portugal, Ireland, which risk the commissioner. Not to mention Greece.
Italy, on the other hand, had already sunk into decline. Her inability to withstand international competition had long ago pushed her to the bottom of the European rankings. The lack of growth had stopped the social elevator and thrown the younger generations into despair. Especially the women. The political forces, which should have managed such a difficult phase, had proved inadequate. They were the dead grabbing the live. Helping to aggravate the crisis. And it is at that point that the Italian electorate began to abandon the old ports, in search of who could represent a possible solution.
The electoral success of Mario Monti, despite the many contraindications of the character, is justified in this way. How its rapid eclipse can be explained, given the inconsistency shown by the patrol of the elected, brought to Parliament. Same logic in the triumph and collapse of Beppe Grillo. Enough of a caste that was devouring the country. But an equally profound disappointment, given the results achieved. And consequently the research continues. Unstoppable. In the hope that sooner or later Italy too, as it was already happening thanks to the Draghi government, will finally be able to live up to its past history. Not a miracle. But only the hope of bridging a delay, before the abyss, into which it risks sinking, turns into the Mariana trench.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/elezioni-25-settembre-elettori-m5s/ on Thu, 04 Aug 2022 05:21:32 +0000.