Because Macron’s majority in the French Parliament will shake
The first round of the legislative elections in France confirms the fragmentation and political tension of the country. Enrico Martial's point
After the first round of the legislative elections on Sunday 12 July in France, President Emmanuel Macron will not find the same large majority in the Assembly as in 2017. At that time it had over 350 deputies, 308 from the Républicque en Marche, to which the 42 deputies of the Mouvement démocratique (MoDem), plus a few other independent ones. In 2022, at the end of the first round, the forces supporting it, including MoDem, are estimated at between 255 and 295 seats. Even if they exceed the threshold of 289 seats required for the majority, control of the Assembly would remain precarious.
If the abstentions were to drop, if there was more passion for the second round, things could change, but at the moment the government scenario mentioned several times by Macron of the political opening to other forces is confirmed. There is mention of a possible coalition with Les Républicains, which are estimated at between 50 and 80 seats, or with variable majorities depending on the measures, for example recovering the socialists outside the new left coalition, estimated at between 15 and 20 seats, or passing through participatory forms intended to create consensus, such as a "national refoundation council".
The opposition will certainly be stronger. The left that met in the Nouvelle Union Populaire, écologiste et sociale (NUPES) should sit between 150 and 190 seats and is led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon's France Insoumise, which in the past legislature expressed a frontal opposition to Macron. In the more varied format in which greens and ecologists, socialists and communists are added, different positions could emerge on Europe, on nuclear power, and even on some economic measures concerning public debt or administration reform, with some margin of consensus for the majority of the President. Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National, which had eight deputies (however, quite absent from the courtroom work) should bring 20 to 45 deputies to the lower house, and it is expected that they will do battle.
Macron will therefore always be committed to seeking consensus in parliament and in the country: in fact, despite the large parliamentary majority, even in the first five years there was no lack of problems, from the yellow vests onwards. On the other hand, in the rest of Europe the exercises are similar: Italy often travels with very composite national majorities and "neutral" presidents, Germany struggles with continuous and detailed negotiations between the government forces and on every decision .
The further message of the first round of the French legislative elections is that left and right have returned to exist, after the phase of their absorption into macronism. In the national assembly there will be three main forces: a center (LREM, MoDem and Horizons of former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe), a radical left but with elements of governmental style among the socialists (NUPES with LFI of Mélenchon, greens and ecologists, socialists and communists) and a radical right with the Rassemblement national of Marine Le Pen to which are added the Republicains, numerically small but very present in the Senate.
According to one point of view, the center is the only one that can govern, the others are extremisms – on the right even pro-Putin, on the left out of unrealism. From another perspective, the management of the left-wing Nupes coalition will tend to bring extreme positions back to political and parliamentary confrontation, and to moderate them.
Finally, the first round of legislative lessons in France confirms the fragmentation and political tension in France. Also in this electoral campaign there were social divisions – between generations, or between executives and managers – or territorial – in the suburbs, between city and countryside, between areas of the country, also through the strong abstention, which reached 52.49 % of voters.
Former education minister Jean-Michel Blanquer, an important political protagonist of the past five years, was eliminated in the first round in the Loiret, in the Region of the Center, south of Paris, where the lepenist Thomas Ménagé (30.8 %) and Bruno Nottin (19.98%), Nupes Communist candidate. During the election campaign in Montargis, on June 4, Blanquer had been the object of insults by two teachers, who had also thrown some cream on his face.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/elezioni-legislative-francia-primo-turno-risultati/ on Mon, 13 Jun 2022 07:37:15 +0000.