Because Russia will not give up Europe to America on gas. Word of Prodi
Romano Prodi does not think that Russia will interrupt gas supplies to Europe and writes that both sides have an interest "in not pulling too hard". Here because
In today's messenger , Romano Prodi wrote that he does not believe that Russia will stop supplying natural gas to Europe as a form of retaliation for any sanctions that would be imposed in the event of an attack on Ukraine. "In the madness of current international relations, anything is possible", the former prime minister points out, "but Gazprom [the Russian state-owned gas company, ed ] will be very careful to advise Putin on this step".
EUROPE AND GAS FROM RUSSIA
Russia is Europe's largest supplier of natural gas: it alone accounts for about 41 percent of the bloc's total imports. For months, Moscow has been limiting fuel sales to the Old Continent, limiting itself to respecting contractual obligations but without booking additional export capacity. This conduct is one of the main causes – not the only one – of the huge increase in European gas prices, which is reflected in the cost of bills (including electricity, since electricity is often obtained from gas).
ITALIAN DEPENDENCE ON RUSSIA
Italy is very dependent on gas imports, given the very low levels of internal production . The Russian one, in particular, represents 43 per cent of gas purchases from abroad; followed at a distance by the Algerian (about 23 per cent), the Norwegian one (11 per cent) and the Qatari one (10 per cent). Libya is worth less than 7 percent.
EUROPEAN DEPENDENCE
Among the European countries least dependent on Russian gas are France (less than 25 percent, thanks also to nuclear power plants) and the Netherlands (11 percent, thanks to the exploitation of domestic reserves).
Conversely, among those most exposed to Russian supplies are Finland and Lithuania (both over 90 per cent), Austria (almost 65 per cent) and Germany (49 per cent).
DOES RUSSIA ALSO DEPEND ON EUROPE?
But just as Europe depends on Russia for gas supplies, so Russia depends on the European market for its state budget, which is made up for 40 percent of revenues from hydrocarbon sales (gas and oil).
According to the Economist , if Moscow were to order the interruption of the flows through the gas pipelines with Europe, Gazprom would suffer economic losses estimated between 203 and 228 million dollars a day. In the event that the blockade were to last three months – in the spring the demand for gas drops considerably, and therefore also the Russian blackmail would lose strength -, the losses for the company would reach 20 billion.
The magazine, however, points out one thing: In the short term, Russia would be able to handle the financial damage, because the central bank has $ 600 billion reserves that it could use to offset the collapse in gas sales revenues. West.
WHAT EUROPE CAN DO
Also in the short term, Europe too could resist the zeroing of flows from Russia by drawing on gas stocks. Or by taking action to look for alternative fuel suppliers: in this sense, the United States is trying to put together a global coalition of liquefied gas (LNG) producers to guarantee certainty of supplies to European allies.
Europe 's regasification capacity (needed to bring liquefied gas back into gaseous form) is not huge, but according to the Economist it is sufficient to replace around two – thirds of Russian imports for a limited period.
In short, the problem is not so much in the regasification plants but in the availability of LNG, which is also limited due to competition from Asian demand.
PRODI'S CONCLUSIONS
Prodi thinks that Russia will not compromise economic relations with Europe. "Russia and Europe", he writes, "even in today's difficult political contingency, have every interest in not pulling too hard and in returning to a lasting agreement which, as in the past, guaranteed satisfactory prices for both parties and, in at the same time, the security of supplies ".
Prodi admonishes the Europeans for having wanted to “limit long-term agreements” with Russia “to entrust us, as a kind of trust relationship, to market trends. For a certain period of time we enjoyed it, then the market turned against us ”.
The former president of the Italian Council and the European Commission invites Brussels and Moscow to find an agreement, "even if it will certainly not be easy to return to the situation of twenty years ago when […] the European Commission, at the time of my presidency, it worked to form a consortium between Russia, Ukraine and the European Union, in order to guarantee safety and regularity in gas supplies ”.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/gas-russia-stati-uniti-europa/ on Mon, 31 Jan 2022 10:06:01 +0000.