Because the League is the tip of the balance in Parliament over Draghi
Facts, numbers and scenarios for Draghi in Parliament in the in-depth analysis of Agi, the press agency directed by Mario Sechi
Are there the numbers in Parliament for a government led by Mario Draghi? In fact, the new prime minister in charge stated, in his short speech after the interview with Mattarella, that he was confident about the possibility of finding parliamentary support . But the first declarations from the parties do not seem to be able to guarantee with certainty that there will be a majority for Draghi. Here is a simulation made by YouTrend.
We assume that the Democratic Party, Forza Italia, Italia Viva, LeU and other smaller groups (autonomies, pro-Europeans, mixed) vote in favor, and in the same way that Fratelli d'Italia votes against.
The doubts concern the 5 Star Movement and the League, that is, the two parties with the highest number of parliamentarians, both in the Chamber and in the Senate. So let's see what would happen assuming different scenarios, obtained by crossing:
1) the choice of the League (favorable vote, negative vote or abstention)
2) the compactness of the M5S in voting yes or no.
If the League votes in favor , the majority for Draghi is practically certain in any case, even without the support of the M5S: the new government would have at least 199 favorable votes (out of 315) in the Senate and 400 (out of 630) in the House.
If, on the other hand, the League were to vote against , the Draghi government could leave only if the M5S voted yes, limiting defections as much as possible; conversely, even if the M5S were against, Draghi would not even have an absolute majority – much less a very large one.
A third solution for the League is that of abstention : in this case, the bar for the vote of confidence would be lowered to 127 in the Senate and 249 in the Chamber, and it would thus become possible to start the Draghi government even with the opposite vote. of the whole M5S (as well as FDI), with 138 yeses to Palazzo Madama and 269 to Montecitorio.
At this point, the numbers on paper would be there, but another variable would come into play: that is the (possible) unwillingness of Draghi himself to lead an executive that does not have a solid parliamentary majority. This is why, whatever the League decides to do, it also becomes decisive to understand what the orientation – even if only prevalent – of the parliamentary groups of the 5 Star Movement will be.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/perche-la-lega-e-lago-della-bilancia-in-parlamento-su-draghi/ on Thu, 04 Feb 2021 09:26:39 +0000.