Because Turkey will struggle to keep the lights on
Turkey is facing a period of energy insecurity mainly due to problems with the hydroelectric sector. Alessandro Sperandio's article
Turkey's energy season, which last week saw power outages that left much of the country without electricity for over an hour, risks turning into a nightmare summer.
TURKEY'S ENERGY PROBLEMS
The country is facing a period of insecurity from the point of view of energy supplies mainly due to problems with the hydroelectric sector, connected with the heat wave that is going through the country and the expiry of some gas import contracts.
According to reports from S&P Global Platts , the cuts were caused by a conflict of interest between the Turkish network operator TEIAS and the state water authority ISD, which is responsible for regulating the supply of drinking water and irrigation for the 'agriculture.
A sudden spike in electricity demand saw TEIAS need to increase hydroelectric power generation, but on the other hand the ISD had to order dams to stop production to preserve water supplies, which sources said were in average 15% with respect to the norms. The action caused disruptions across the country.
THE GENERATION CAPACITY
On paper, Turkey has a large generation capacity to meet energy demand, with 98,162 GW as of June 30th. The combination of low water levels and low seasonal wind speeds, however, resulted in availability of just 45 GW versus peak demand during this period's heatwave which would require 60 GW instead.
Daily energy demand broke the record for several days in just over a month, reaching 1.146 TWh on August 4, about 12% above the 1.02 TWh recorded on June 9.
Energy demand in July increased by 6% year-on-year to 30.24 TWh, with 186.91 TWh recorded for the first seven months of the year up 9.4% compared to the same period in 2020.
HYDROELECTRIC AND GAS PRODUCTION
Due to low water levels, production from Turkey's hydroelectric dams decreased by 29.5% in the first seven months of the year, representing 20.3% of generation compared to 31.5% in the same period of the year. last year, with a situation worsening from month to month.
Gas combustion, on the other hand, represented 29.8% of generation in the first seven months of 2021 compared to 16.9% last year, with a percentage that rose to 35.6% in July, against 23.5%. of July last year.
TURKEY'S ENERGY POLICY
The problem of rainfall has been exacerbated by Ankara's policy of raising gas prices in exchange for electricity, to reduce gas consumption and contain the country's current account deficit.
In 2014, gas generated 47.9% of Turkey's electricity, dropping to 18.9% in 2019 and only 16.9% in the first seven months of last year due to the reduction in demand generated by the pandemic. .
With Turkey's combined-cycle gas plants currently operating at full capacity, however, the return to gas is likely to come at the worst possible time, even as most of state-owned importer Botas' legacy gas contracts are being renewed.
A 6.6 billion m3 / year contract for Azeri gas was concluded in April with another 5.3 billion m3 / year (Nigeria LNG 1.3 billion m3, Russia pipeline 4 billion m3 / year) overdue at the end of the year. Together, these contracts represent 20% of Turkey's 57.9 billion cubic meters / year of imports.
TURKEY RELIES ON LNG
In the meantime, Botas has launched two important tenders for the purchase of LNG from 1 June and has signaled its willingness to import Azerbaijani gas on a spot basis. "While Turkish pipeline suppliers, Azerbaijan and Russia, are unlikely to leave Ankara without gas, with spot LNG prices currently high, it is likely that they will not accept Ankara's demands for cheaper gas on more flexible terms. – explained S&P Global Platts -. Unless the rains fill the dams again, Ankara may have no choice but to renew gas contracts on unfavorable terms, just to keep the lights on ”.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/turchia-problemi-forniture-energia-elettrica/ on Sat, 14 Aug 2021 06:00:37 +0000.