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Budget maneuver 2021: born old, late, in chaos

3 years ago babelfish

Budget maneuver 2021: born old, late, in chaos

Budget maneuver 2021. The intervention of Michele Poerio, Carlo Sizia and Stefano Biasioli

On 11/16/2020 the Council of Ministers definitively approved the budget bill with effect on the three-year period 2021-2023, with repercussions also in subsequent years (a first approval "subject to agreements" took place on 10/18). However, the maneuver in question does not represent the coherent development of either the Update to the Def or the Budget Planning Document, documents sent to the competent EU Offices already in October, even if beyond the deadlines set on 15/10.

For example, we believe that the annual percentage change in 2020 GDP is unlikely to stop at – 9% and rebound to + 6% in 2021, or that the deficit / GDP ratio in 2020 can stabilize at – 10.8%.

to improve in 2021 to – 7% and continue in subsequent years until reaching – 3% in 2023 or, again, that the debt / GDP ratio can stop at 158% in 2020, to decrease to 155.6% in 2021 and to 151.5% in 2023 (according to the forecasts of the last update note of last October).

All of this largely depends on the global epidemic of Covid 19, but also on the unpredictability and delays with which the Government and institutions have faced the first wave (sudden and little known) and even more so the second wave (widely expected ) of the pandemic itself.

Proof of this is that it took three decrees (March, May, August) to find resources, with an additional net debt of € 100 billion, to face the economic-health crisis and to show that Italy (from the data sent by the various Countries in the EU Commission) is the country with the greatest increase in debt (in the comparison between 2020 and 2019) and third last in the recovery (so far) of GDP (worse only Spain and Portugal have done).

We now come to the main measures of the maneuver, which is worth just under 40 billion, 23 of which come from an additional deficit and the remainder from the resources (for now hoped for and foreseeable) of the European Recovery Plan. However, the discussion has already begun, and will soon be approved, a new budget variance, all charged to 2021, which could be worth around 20 billion. of additional deficit which, associated with an average annual increase in GDP probably lower than + 6%, will bring the deficit / GDP ratio in 2021 to at least -8% or more. The new deficit would be used to finance the new series of non-repayable aid for businesses and families affected by the restrictive anti-contagion measures decided in the autumn-winter in progress, restraints released, in the calculations, from the losses of April 2020 and also extended to employees of the economic sectors that have suffered consequential damage, perhaps indirectly, to the restrictive measures on activities and movements, resources to then be distributed through regulatory Dpcm.

Health measures : the National Health Fund increased by 1 billion in 2021. (121.370 billion); precarious or fixed-term contracts (permitted by the “Cura Italia” decree of last March) are extended to 31/12/2021; resources are envisaged to increase the indemnity for the exclusivity of the relationship of employed doctors and an exclusivity indemnity is also provided for nurses, as well as compensation for family doctors who in 2021 carry out rapid swabs; finally, resources are foreseen to finance, in the five-year period 2021-25, more than 4,000 new medical specialization contracts and funds to face the next anti-Covid vaccination campaigns. Not a word on the MES (approximately 36 billion), funding available from July 2020 with the only conditionality of use in the health sector.

Work and employment measures : for the next two years, in order to support new female employment, a 100% exemption from contributions is envisaged, up to a limit of € 6,000 / year; total exemption from the payment of contributions for 3 years (4 years for companies in the South) also for permanent hiring of young people under 36; a Fund of 500 million is set up for the implementation of active labor policies and to encourage the reform process of social safety nets; the stabilization of the tax wedge cut is also confirmed for salaries from employees between € 28,000 and € 40,000; 5.3 billion are intended for the extension of the Covid redundancy fund for a maximum of 12 weeks (to be placed between 01/01 and 31/03/2021 for the ordinary fund and from 1/01 and 30/06/2021 for Ordinary and redundancy check in derogation); confirmed until 31/03/2021 also the block of individual and collective economic dismissals; a 3.6 billion fund. it is intended for recruitment, in the period 2021-2033, by the ministries and bodies of the public administration also as an exception to the ceilings on spending and turnover; appropriations for the renewal of PA contracts increased by 400 million.

Measures for industry and businesses : in this regard, a mix of underfunded micro-interventions has been designed, perhaps postponing the use of the resources of the Recovery Plan the commitment to a more strategic and organic project capable of finally relaunching productivity, growth, employment true. Tax credits are thus envisaged for publishing (for advertising investments and for the acquisition of digital services); tax credits for research and training and a Fund for the promotion and development of the National Research Program; the extension for the Transition 4.0 and Industry 4.0 incentives, as well as the Nuova Sabatini; resources to Invitalia to encourage investments aimed at innovation and social cohesion; tax reduction for workers in the South (- 30% until 2025, then to decrease until 2029). For investments in capital account and infrastructures, 51.9 billion is also foreseen, but to be “spread over 15 years”. Resources for municipalities and provinces increased by 1 billion. to support institutions in difficulty, local transport, kindergartens.

Welfare and social support : the social Ape and the “Woman option” extended for 1 year, as well as the expansion contracts (possibility of pension slides up to 5 years in correspondence with new hires). The following are confirmed: bonuses for building interventions (deductions of 50 or 65%); the baby and babysitter bonus; the bonus for electric scooters and bicycles; the green areas bonus; the culture bonus; the 110% super bonus is funded for now until 06/30/2021, waiting for the resources of the Recovery Plan to arrive; confirmed the 7-day paternity leave for 2021 (to be used within the 5th month of the child's life). Confirmed, unfortunately, the citizenship income and "quota 100", sad legacy of the yellow-green government, measures that turned out to be bankruptcy and unnecessarily expensive. The de-indexation of medium-high pensions will continue in 2021 according to the criteria of law 160/2019 (the attempt to extend an additional year has been stopped) and we hope that from 2022 the indexation in brackets according to three amount bands ( 100% up to 3 times the minimum; 90% between 3 and 5 times; 75% over 5 times the INPS minimum) returns fully and definitively according to the criteria of law 388/2000. Following the Judgment of the Court 234/2020 (partial victory of FEDER.SPeV. And CONFEDIR) the solidarity contribution (progressive and increasing levy from – 15 to – 40%) imposed by law was repealed for the years 2022 and 2023 145/2018 on pensions over € 100,000 gross annually, etc.

CONSIDERATIONS AND RESULTING JUDGMENTS

  • We share the opinion of Carlo Bonomi and Antonio D'Amato (current and past Presidents of Confindustria) "emergency maneuver, not restart" and "Italy is in pieces". We add that the illusion persists that welfare assistance is a solution, even without creating jobs and investments and, therefore, development. Furthermore, as Bonomi recalls, there is no "country vision" ("Il Sole-24 Ore" of 6/10 us). And equally dissatisfied are the confederal unions (not only us), who in denouncing the underfunding of each Chapter, have a general strike has already been called.
  • Even this maneuver will eventually "pass", first to the House and then to the Senate (where the current majority numbers are small), with the usual outline of a final maxi-amendment and votes of confidence, but the Senate will be put in a position not to carry out no function of analysis and comparison (only of uncritical ratification), as if we were in a single chamber regime.
  • As for the judgment on the current health emergency, which conditions the maneuver under discussion so heavily, one cannot but be critical (as former medical employees, as well as ordinary citizens) both towards the Government and the Regions, as well as the Commissioner Domenico Arcuri, for how the pandemic was managed: superficiality, incompetence, bureaucracy, delays, barrel discharge between the Government and local autonomies. No real interest in the common good, but the anxiety of campaigning, even in these circumstances. The attempt to "sell" the "Italy model" to the whole of Europe as a winner in overcoming the crisis is tiresome. More humility and realism, dear Conte and Speranza and CTS: we are the worst in Europe as a mortality rate in relation to infections and inhabitants! Please!
  • Then, the ease with which the government promotes new debts is surprising, thanks to the temporary suspension of the European stability and growth pact and the "wide sleeve" of the ECB (but Paolo Gentiloni reminds us that they must be repaid sooner or later). And even the EU aid network to Italy (a total of 314 billion, distributed over seven years, from 2021 to 2027, 185 as loans and 129 as grants) are not "a gift", they also have conditionalities, they involve the elaboration of projects-objectives, preventive authorizations, checks on the times and ways of implementing the programs, compatible with the European guidelines, achievement of the expected results. And in our specific Plan it is zero.
  • It is also surprising that the President of the Republic did not realize how the M5S is an obstacle to the action of the yellow-red government (of which Mattarella had favored the birth, with the good wishes of Merkel, Macron and Trump): and so solves a corporate crisis (Ilva di Taranto, Alitalia, Aspi-Atlantia, Westinghouse, etc.); there is no infrastructure that is one (road and motorway network, ports, Tav, Gronda di Genova, Tunnels, etc.). In the reconstruction of the Morandi Bridge (the only significant structure built) the M5S did not "put beak" and, in fact, is blocking the country, in fact their representatives do not even know if they are a Party or a Movement, they are in conflict with each other , not only with all the other political forces, they do not even know if they believe in representative democracy, they only know that they want to make a living to earn the income of parliamentary position, in spite of the so-called "sovereign people". And then the President of the Republic cannot intervene only when (as if he were Head of a Presidential Republic) it is a question of removing the Democratic Party "from the corner", after Salvini's political suicide (summer 2019). And on the other hand, one cannot witness the "sprint" of a year and a half, in guilty political, legislative, administrative, managerial passivity, waiting for the new tenant of the Hill.
  • We believe that the President of the Republic is at least bothered by Prof. Giuseppe Conte's proof of government (exercise of arrogance and authoritarianism, even more so in the absence of any electoral mandate, absolute inability to dialogue with the parliamentary minority, majority in the country, a characteristic combination of presumption and ambition, opportunism and transformism) and feels a little guilty for having contributed to his installation in office. We welcome the stimulus of the Head of State in order to open the government majority. If not, never mind, there is no hope.
  • Finally, we ask the President of the Republic, as far as possible and within the limits of his mandate, to realign the role of the Superior Council of the Judiciary and the Constitutional Court: in particular, the Constitutional Court today appears more "fan" than the legislator on duty which tramples on constitutional principles and values ​​(offering convenient covers) which guarantees compliance with the letter and spirit of our current Constitution.

Prof. Michele Poerio
National President of FEDER.SPeV.
CONFEDIR Secretary General

Dr. Carlo Sizia
National Steering Committee FEDER.SPeV.

Dr. Stefano Biasioli
National Steering Committee FEDER.SPeV.

This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/manovra-di-bilancio-2021/ on Sun, 22 Nov 2020 09:42:41 +0000.