Can Russia withstand an economic war better than China?
What geopolitics analyst George Friedman writes about the strategic problems of Russia and China
The war in Ukraine, now around 6 months old, is strategically important for a variety of reasons. If Russia defeats Ukraine and takes control of the country, its forces will be on the borders of Eastern Europe. A Russian presence on the border of Europe would transform the balance of power in the Atlantic and inevitably force the United States to deploy forces in defense of Europe.
What Russia's intentions were at the start of the invasion matters little. Intentions change and strategy doesn't have to be optimistic. So what is at stake in the war in Ukraine is the possible resurrection of the Cold War, with all the associated risks. From the American point of view, involving Russia through Ukrainian troops is far less risky than another cold war.
The Cold War did not lead to a full-scale war, but only to the fear of war. Western fears of Soviet intentions exceeded Soviet capabilities. Their fear, in turn, has held NATO together, much to the chagrin of Moscow's leaders. None of their worst fears happened, and so the collapse of the Soviet Union had more to do with internal rot than with external threat. It is not clear that any future cold war would run like the last, but one thing is likely: given the existence of nuclear weapons, the front line of a new cold war would remain static, and the status quo on either side would remain intact. therefore NGOs like neither of the two sides have fragmented. It would be a costly and dangerous outcome, as history does not have to repeat itself. But the collapse of Ukraine would represent threats that could be contained, however costly and dangerous. The global scheme would remain intact.
China's vulnerabilities, and its attempts to overcome them, are potentially more dangerous. As with Russia, the central issue is geography. For Russia, the problem is that the Ukrainian border is less than 300 miles from Moscow, and Russia has survived many invasions only by virtue of Moscow's distance from the invaders – a distance that ended the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia's obsession with Ukraine is aimed at correcting the problem. China's geographical problem is that it has become an export power, and as such it depends on its access to the Pacific Ocean and adjacent waters. The United States views China's free access to the Pacific as a potential threat to its strategic depth, which has been critical to the United States since the end of World War II. Chinese access to the Pacific is blocked by a number of island states – Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia, indirectly supported by neighboring powers such as Australia, India and Vietnam. Not all are American allies, but all have common interests against Chinese naval expansion. China wants to defend its strategic depth by conquering and controlling it. The United States wants to defend its strategic depth by defending it.
The geographic dimension is compounded by an economic dimension. The Chinese economy is dependent on exports, and the United States is their largest customer. Beijing also needs continued US investment as its financial system is under great pressure.
Russia is attempting to reclaim strategic depth, and it entered it knowing full well the financial consequences it would create. In other words, it has endured financial damage in exchange for strategic security. So far, he has not gained strategic security and has absorbed significant financial damage by meeting some of his own in Europe.
China is looking for a strategic solution while avoiding the economic damage that further expansion would likely invite. Its main opponent on both fronts would be the United States. So China is probing the US, trying to figure out its potential responses. Response to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit pushed the limits of an invasion of Taiwan. What China has learned about the US military is unclear, but it has learned that the triggering of American economic actions goes beyond the Chinese demonstration.
America's goal in Ukraine, therefore, is to deny Russia the strategic depth it wants to limit the Russian threat to Europe. With China, his goal is to maintain American strategic depth to prevent China from threatening the United States or gaining global reach.
The issues are similar in principle, but the stakes for the United States are not. For Washington, the Chinese question is much more important than the Russian question. A Russian victory in Ukraine would redraw unofficial borders and increase the risks. A Chinese success would create a more global power that challenges the United States and its allies around the world.
The consequences of war are always significant. US involvement adds economic costs to the equation. So far, Russia has absorbed the costs. China may not be able, considering its economy is currently vulnerable. But nations thrive on economics and survive on security. In this sense, it would appear that Russia is less interested in negotiations than China.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden meet in mid-November at a conference in Indonesia or Thailand. If the meeting takes place, it will be the first since the conference call in May. Only informal and back-channel talks are taking place between the United States and Russia. China has a stable economy now more than it needs the command of the seas. Russia appears to be able to survive what has been dealt with economically, but it has not broken the back of the Ukrainian forces. China is closer to an economic crisis than Russia, and therefore is unwilling to risk war with the United States. He will speak if he is not satisfied. Russia's economic and military situation is murky in the long run. The US deals with China and Russia at a fairly low price and can handle both right now. Russia and China must try to raise costs for the United States but cannot afford to increase their own.
It is a dizzying equation but not uncommon. China must reach an agreement with the United States. Russia doesn't have that need. The United States is flexible.
(Extract from Germano Dottori's Facebook profile )
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/russia-cina-guerra-economica-friedman/ on Sun, 21 Aug 2022 06:20:19 +0000.