Can Ukraine win? Wall Street Journal Report
Five possible future scenarios for the war between Russia and Ukraine. The deepening of the Wall Street Journal
Nobody knows how or when the war in Ukraine will end, but it is clear that Russia is not winning at the moment. According to Western governments and independent analysts, Moscow has failed to achieve the initial goal of a lightning attack on Kiev to bring down the government. And the success of his Plan B, a scaled-down offensive to repel Ukrainian forces in the east and south-east of the country, seems increasingly difficult.
Some things that seemed highly probable at the start of the war, such as the collapse of the Ukrainian state, are now considered unlikely. Ukraine is fighting an existential battle, British Chief of Defense Admiral Tony Radakin said in a speech in London Monday, "and it will survive."
In this last phase of the war, tank battles were replaced by exchanges dominated by artillery. The Russians are waging offensives in some places, including the eastern Luhansk region. They finally defeated the last Ukrainian resistance in the southern port city of Mariupol. Elsewhere, the Ukrainians are fighting back, especially in the north, beyond Kharkiv.
"The war is entering a prolonged phase," Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told EU defense ministers on Tuesday. He said there are "many indications that Russia is preparing for a long-term military operation," including engineering and fortification works in the Kherson and Zaporizhya areas.
However, sooner or later the war will end in a ceasefire or armistice. In light of the new realities on the ground, here are five possible scenarios for where the conflict could go – writes the WSJ .
1. A Russian collapse
The highly motivated, well armed and tactically savvy Ukrainian forces exploited the weaknesses of the Russian army. The Russians struggled with weak logistics and coordination of the different elements of their campaign. They suffered from inadequate equipment and training and, in some cases, low morale. According to Western analyzes, among the estimated tens of thousands of Russian casualties, the officer corps has been seriously weakened.
Most Western analyzes of the war suggest that Moscow's Plan B – concentrating forces in the east and south-east and expanding its position in the Donbas region – is going much slower than the Russians hoped. According to some, Moscow's apparent plan to encircle Ukrainian forces seems unattainable. Meanwhile, western long-range M777 guns and other armaments have also gone into action. The Pentagon says they are already making a difference.
The best that some analysts can find for Moscow's military performance to date is that it hasn't collapsed. "It could be argued that the Russians did well enough to keep their army together, given the pressure they are under," said Lawrence Freedman, professor emeritus of war studies at King's College London. But, he adds, "armies can be fragile".
Western intelligence officials noted significant combat denials by Russian troops. They also said that Russian units that were mauled in the battle for Kiev were thrown back into battle, often with poorly trained recruits. UK defense intelligence claims that the use of auxiliary forces, such as fighters from Chechnya, has made it even more difficult for Russia to coordinate forces.
"I think the scenario that is perhaps a little underestimated is the possibility of a real Russian collapse," said Eliot Cohen of the bipartisan political research group Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. This could result in widespread refusal to participate in the battle, absences without permission, or disorderly retreats.
Even results below this would likely have consequences in Moscow, Cohen said. "I think on a fundamental level Putin has already lost," he said. "Personally, I find it difficult to imagine that he could remain in power for a very long period of time."
2. The collapse of Ukraine
While the heavy damage inflicted by the Ukrainians on Russian forces has been well documented, there is less evidence of how much Ukrainian forces have suffered. Publicly available information suggests that the losses and damage to equipment were significant, but Western estimates indicate that the losses are a fraction of those suffered by the Russians, who according to estimates by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization had 40,000 troops killed, wounded. or caught in late March.
The capture of Mariupol was a long-sought victory by Russia, after Ukrainians besieged in a steel mill for nearly three months laid down their arms. The Russian Defense Ministry said Wednesday that more than 950 Ukrainian soldiers had surrendered and became prisoners of war. According to analysts, Moscow forces are also putting Ukraine under severe pressure around Severodonetsk and Lyman in Donbas.
Without reliable estimates of the loss of life and equipment, analysts must look for more clues about the state of the Ukrainian military.
One benchmark used by analysts is how they are fighting. “They seem to be fighting competently and intelligently, and are there any signs of letting up?” Says Phillips O'Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, who added that he hadn't seen these signs. . The effectiveness of Ukrainian forces will also be strengthened by Western equipment arriving in the country.
Michael Clarke, former director of the Royal United Services Institute, a London security think tank, said President Biden's request to Congress for long-term military aid of $ 33 billion is a signal that he "will do whatever it takes to ensure that Ukraine does not fail ”. This makes it much less plausible that Ukraine can be defeated ”.
“I don't think a collapse of Ukraine is likely. I would almost completely rule it out, ”said Freedman of King's College London. "They have the motivation and the drive."
3. The quagmire
Wars often turn into deadlocks that neither side dares to lose. Western officials have warned that the conflict could last into next year or well beyond.
“War is often or can be a competitive collapse process in which the victory goes to the side still standing, even if both are suffering terribly. This was certainly what happened in 1918, ”Cohen said, speaking of the end of the First World War.
A stalemate, he said, is "conceivable if you really think that the Russians are well entrenched and tenacious and that they will be able to generate replacements for the terrible losses they have suffered." He said he doesn't find it convincing. According to him, a more likely scenario is that the Ukrainians exploit their mobility and tactical superiority to choose the points to attack and penetrate the Russian lines.
Several analysts said they expected that if Ukraine manages to withstand the current Russian offensive in Donbas, the Ukrainians will step up their counter-offensive in the coming weeks, initiating a critical phase of the war. Clarke said the Russian military is too small to achieve even its limited goals in Ukraine. The long-term key for Moscow is whether recruiting efforts will bear fruit and whether another 150,000-180,000 troops can be brought into its standing army. Given the need for training, the new recruits would not arrive on the battlefield until the end of the year. "If the Russians manage to mobilize a force majeure next year, then we will find ourselves in a stalemate scenario," he said.
4. Ukraine's progress
Having redirected their forces east and south-east, the Russians appear to have rushed to mount piecemeal offensives, sometimes using troops that had been pushed back from Kiev, instead of waiting for the right moment and mustering a large-scale force.
"It looks like the Russian advances will run out relatively soon," O'Brien said. "At some point they will stop advancing and the question is: will the Ukrainians be able to push them back?".
At this stage, Western weapons are extremely important, according to analysts. A senior Pentagon official said on Monday that Ukraine reported that 74 of the 90 M777 artillery guns the US has supplied to Ukraine are in advanced positions around Kharkhiv and elsewhere.
The long range of these howitzers allows Ukrainians to attack Russian forces without getting in range. Ukraine is also receiving other Western equipment, including the Switchblade and Phoenix Ghost drones. "The combination of drones and artillery is quite powerful," Freedman said.
If the Ukrainians advance, the next question is where will they stop. The minimum target for Ukraine would be the control lines in place on February 23, the day before the Russian invasion. This would leave Moscow in control of two enclaves in Donbas and Crimea, which it annexed in 2014.
According to analysts, if the Ukrainians were to succeed, the arrest would represent a political challenge for Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky. The temptation would be to push the Russians to retreat further.
Offensive operations are more demanding than defensive ones. Advancing through areas where the Russians have long been entrenched, in Donbas and especially in Crimea, a great prize for Putin, would be ambitious for Ukraine. External pressures on Zelensky, particularly from Europeans, to limit the advance would likely increase.
"To the point where the Western allies are divided over whether we are trying to win the war or end it… it is more difficult for the Ukrainians to carry on as they did," Clarke said.
5. Escalation
Many Western discussions, particularly in pre-war Europe, have been about making sure Putin had a way out. Some analysts are now concerned about cornering the Russian leader to prevent the conflict from escalating and escalating, for example by introducing tactical nuclear or chemical weapons onto the battlefield.
Western analysts say this is possible, but unlikely. Even if nuclear weapons were used on the battlefield, the conflict would not automatically degenerate into an intercontinental ballistic missile trade between Russia and the West.
Russia's use of nuclear weapons would break a taboo against their use in warfare that has lasted since 1945. The reaction would be such, said Cohen, that "I believe that if Putin really went that far, he would find his orders slowed down. by his immediate subordinates ".
The use of such weapons would attract broad international condemnation and likely elicit a response aimed at further isolating the Russian economy, including through the eventual introduction of so-called secondary sanctions, which would target not only Russian entities, but also any company doing business in Russia.
The main factor against the use of such weapons, according to analysts, is that it would provide no advantage in fighting – where both sides are close to each other and where there are no large-scale concentrations of Ukrainian forces.
“A nuclear weapon on the battlefield is useless. A lot of nuclear weapons on the battlefield just create a lot of fallout and are likely to wipe out some of your own citizens, ”Freedman said. Chemical weapons are difficult to direct and risky for your troops, making them even more ineffective.
Two other reasons for using them, even away from the battlefields, would be to terrorize the country in an attempt to influence decision makers in Kiev or to encourage Western governments to pressure Ukraine for peace. Both avenues are hypothetically plausible but unlikely, according to analysts.
Any use of these weapons would likely draw the West even further into the conflict. According to analysts, a nuclear response by Western powers would be unlikely, but a conventional military response likely.
The current red lines preventing Western forces from carrying out air operations in Ukraine would likely fall and a no-fly zone would become a possibility. Cohen said the Russian Black Sea fleet could become a potential Western target. Given the Russian aviation battles against Ukraine, a rational player in Moscow would like to avoid direct confrontations with the United States and other Western air forces.
This raises the question of whether Putin is a rational actor. "If Putin wants to do something completely irrational, he could do it, but that doesn't mean we have a rational way to stop it," Freedman said.
(Extract from the press review of eprcomunicazione)
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/ucraina-vittoria-guerra/ on Sun, 22 May 2022 06:18:29 +0000.