China, all the links between spy balloons and hypersonic weapons
China could use spy balloons not only to acquire intelligence information, but above all to deploy hypersonic weapons or weapons of mass destruction. The analysis by Francesco D'Arrigo, director of the Italian Institute for Strategic Studies "Niccolò Machiavelli"
For the first time in history, the US Air Force shoots down aircraft that have penetrated US airspace . One of these, identified as an aerostatic balloon, flew over the United States for several days, hovering over military and missile bases before being shot down on February 4 by a missile launched from an F-22 on the coast of the Atlantic Ocean.
On the other 3 unidentified objects shot down, the White House has placed a veil of secrecy, officially they remain unidentified and an attempt is being made to recover and analyze the remains of an object shot down near Dead Horse, Alaska, of another smaller than the balloon Chinese spy shot down over Canadian Yukon, and an octagonal object shot down over Lake Huron.
US officials have not officially announced any country of origin for the 3 unidentified objects, but several US intelligence sources knew early on that the balloon that penetrated the airspaces above Canadian and US territory was Chinese, because it they intercepted the transmissions of the data it was collecting.
The worrying aspects of these blatant violations of US sovereignty and of the international laws of the "harmless probe for atmospheric surveys" (cited by the Beijing authorities) are many, and in addition to the danger of collision with airliners which could cause a catastrophe, demonstrate how increasingly assertive China and its leader Xi Jinping are.
The most threatening aspect of these violations of Canadian and US airspace is that China could use these balloons not only to acquire intelligence information but above all to deploy hypersonic weapons or weapons of mass destruction.
In September 2018, Chinese state television CCTV broadcast footage of a stratospheric balloon , not unlike the one that has flown over the United States and Canada, dropping what appeared to be hypersonic weapons (HGVs).
The video showed a high-altitude balloon carrying three hypersonic glide vehicles that are part of the Chinese military's precision warhead development program for hypersonic weapons. The wedge shape of those weapon systems visible in the shots is similar to the design of the DF-ZF HGV missile, produced by the 10th Research Institute, China Aerospace Science Industry Corporation (CASIC), already operational and officially presented during the military parade of the National Day on October 1, 2019. The DF-ZF HGV can travel at speeds between Mach 5 and 10 and perform evasive maneuvers to engage enemy defenses, can be carried by Chinese Dong Feng-17 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) (DF -17) and be equipped with both conventional and nuclear weapons with a range of 1,800-2,500 km.
A detailed description of Chinese ballistic and cruise missiles is available on this link of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The balloon-launched HGVs are also part of the development program of the hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) secretly tested by China in July 2021 , which traveled in space for about 40,000 km before re-entering the atmosphere and hitting the ground target, sparking huge concerns among Pentagon and NATO leaders.
CHINA COULD USE BALLOONS FOR A NUCLEAR ATTACK
According to several analysts, the stratospheric balloons that have crossed US national airspace, hovering over some strategic military bases, could also be a test attack with weapons mounted on balloons, which due to their size, speed and materials are difficult to intercept by the Distant Early Warning Line air defense systems of the North American Aerospace Defense Command ( NORAD ).
A further use of these high-altitude balloons over the United States as attack weapons could be to deliver a small EMP (Electro Magnetic Pulse) nuclear device.
Exploded at very high altitudes, EMPs could disable US nuclear power plants and communications, wreaking widespread havoc for some time and more without firing a shot on the ground.
A report published in July 2020 by the US Task Force on National and Homeland Security analyzes the Chinese Military Doctrine on the use of HEMP (high-altitude electromagnetic pulse waveform amplitudes at satellite orbits) attacks which envisages EMP attacks against the United States as a means to prevail in a potential war.
According to military experts, an EMP attack on the East Coast could kill 90% of the population within a year of the attack, melt down dozens of nuclear reactors and cause the evacuation of millions of people from large cities and areas surrounding nuclear facilities .
DO THESE CHINESE WEAPON SYSTEMS USE WESTERN TECHNOLOGIES?
The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) uses sophisticated stratospheric airships as well as satellites and reconnaissance aircraft for military purposes, accessing and exploiting Western technologies, thanks to partnerships with European, Italian and American companies such as Aerostar – "world leader in the design, production, integration and management of platforms for stratospheric balloons and airships”, which also collaborates with NASA, Google, US Air Force.
High-altitude balloons, like satellites and many other technologies and sensors are dual-use systems, i.e. they can be used for scientific and commercial research purposes, but also for military purposes and are included in various ways in the "Kill Chain" (concept which describes the steps necessary to carry out a military or cyber attack: identification of targets, dispatching of forces to targets, initiation of attacks on targets, destruction of targets), for example by using them as communication and data link hubs, ISR means (Intelligence, Surveillance, & Reconnaissance), sophisticated systems for nuclear and biological attacks.
CHINESE ASSERTIVITY IS CREATING ALARM AT THE PENTAGON AND THE WHITE HOUSE
The increasingly assertive Chinese posture is creating growing concern in the US and on December 16, 2022, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken set up the Office of China Coordination , a coordination office at the State Department, the "China House”, with the task of providing information on the Chinese threat and accelerating and coordinating the government's reaction. And also last year, the CIA created the " China Mission Center " to help the intelligence community with direct resources, funding and personnel to counter Beijing's expansion of diplomatic, technological and military power.
On November 7, 2022, the Department of Homeland Security issued an important notice to American businesses warning them of the risks associated with trading with Chinese entities. The notice notes the persistent and growing risk of data theft by the Chinese government due to China's newly promulgated laws, including the 2017 National Intelligence Law , the 2020 Encryption Law , and the Data Security Law. 2020 data . These laws oblige Chinese companies and citizens – including through academic institutions, research service providers and investors – to support and facilitate the Chinese government's access to data collection, transmission and storage. In summary, they force all Chinese entities to turn into intelligence tools and allow espionage by China.
President Biden's response, while still deemed too soft by Republicans, to date has been even harsher than the previous administration, tightening technology transfer bans imposed by President Trump.
AND HOW IS THE EU DEALING WITH CHINESE PROVOCATIONS AND SUPPORT FOR THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE?
Apparently nothing has changed, "business as usual", as evidenced by the definitive go-ahead from the European Parliament to the agreement, reached at European Union level last November, on the stop to newly registered polluting petrol and diesel vehicles, starting in 2035.
After the crisis in the supply chain of goods, caused by Xi Jinping's extreme "zero Covid" lockdown policy, after the sensational boomerang of the incentives for (Chinese) photovoltaic panels, after the energy and geopolitical crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the coercive use of energy sources, the European Green Deal so ideologically radicalized and without an adequate strategic vision is preparing us for a disaster also for our automotive industry. As for photovoltaic panels and other critical technological sectors, the issue of rare earths necessary for the production of batteries, the extraction of which has a significant environmental and social impact, sharpens our dependence because the market is largely controlled by China, providing Chinese industries with a further competitive advantage such as to put ours out of the market.
Trade with China in any advanced Western technology is helping Beijing dominate semiconductor and artificial intelligence, cyber command strategies, weakening the West's economy and technological leadership. Continuing trade and knowledge exchanges with China without any consideration of the repercussions in terms of national security, especially in high-tech sectors, is extremely counterproductive and dangerous due to the risks we are touching every day.
As a result, companies trading with China are at permanent risk of state-sponsored data theft, accelerating foreign competitors' shrinking domestic market share. This also boosts China's acquisition of technology dominance in critical markets, which have long been led by US and European companies including aerospace, semiconductors, robotics, biometrics, cyber-intelligence, genomics, drugs, artificial intelligence systems, automotive, materials for sustainable energy, scientific research, just to name a few.
From a strategic point of view, there is not a lot of secure trade with China in the high-tech sector. Indeed, the right amount is zero. As demonstrated by the Biden administration's "China House" and the trade restrictions that the United States are imposing.
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine the world has changed, revealing the project of Russia and China to overturn the international security architecture, and their hybrid and coercive tactics can no longer be answered with the policies of the past.
HOW WOULD EUROPEAN GOVERNMENTS REACT IF OUR SKIES WERE PENETRATED BY CHINESE SPY BALLOONS?
The United States is also carrying out programs that use balloons and hypersonic missiles as weapon systems but together with NATO allies they must discourage Chinese intrusions into their airspace and all strategic infrastructures, leading Beijing to fear rapid retaliation and effective, first of all by further limiting investments in China, technology transfers and data acquisition systems such as 5G, TikTok, etc. It won't be easy, because in the United States and above all in Europe, China's ability to influence spreads with its long list of eminent supporters, dispensing ample funds to think tanks, politicians, opinion makers and influencers who spread disinformation and promote interests of Beijing, camouflaging them with the need for free trade and encouraging the development of programs such as the Belt and Road Initiative, which conceal the real objective of the Communist Party of China: China's military, economic and technological supremacy and a new world order based on coercion.
The hope is that the EU will soon change its approach, taking note of the geopolitical and geoeconomic upheavals underway and to govern relations with the People's Republic of China not continue to use finance but strategy, the Grand Strategy.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/cina-palloni-spia-armi-ipersoniche/ on Sat, 18 Feb 2023 08:05:50 +0000.