Could Russia be running out of firearms? Economist Report
Russia's armed forces may be defeating the Ukrainians, but they are running out of artillery, according to the British weekly The Economist
Russian guns fire five times as many shots as Ukraine 's. The fighting has intensified in recent weeks. On February 17, the invaders captured Avdiivka, a town on the Eastern Front. They have since conquered several nearby villages. In the south, Ukrainian soldiers defend the village of Robotyne with just 20-30 shells a day. Russia's firepower gives it a clear advantage, but does it have enough weapons to maintain it?
HOW MANY WEAPONS DOES RUSSIA HAVE?
As of February, Russia had just under 5,000 artillery pieces in the field, according to the Royal United Services Institute, a London think-tank. According to Pavel Luzin of the Center for European Policy Analysis, a think tank, Russia produces about 50 artillery guns a year. Increasing production would be difficult: cannon barrels are produced with specialized machinery using high-quality steel. At the outbreak of the war, only two Russian factories were equipped to produce them. Few countries export firearms and even fewer would sell to Russia: North Korea is a possible source, having already supplied ammunition. But satellite images suggest Russia is replacing much of the large-caliber weapons it loses from an open-air stockpile.
At the beginning of the conflict Russia had around 19,000 artillery pieces in unprotected depots. But some of these guns have been rusting for decades, rendering them unusable. In the last two years many have been looted for spare parts: cannon barrels have often been used to replace those worn by thousands of rounds. A study by an open-source intelligence (osint) analyst on These figures are uncertain: it is difficult to estimate how many of Russia's oldest guns, the D-1 and M-30 howitzers, which date back to World War II, can still be used, or how much ammunition Russia has for them. But the dwindling supply of artillery, and in particular of cannon barrels, is a clear problem.
HOW MANY IS UKRAINE DESTROYING?
It is difficult to estimate the rate at which Ukraine is destroying Russian artillery: the large guns are usually positioned far from the front lines, making them difficult to count. The Ukrainian military claims to have destroyed more than 10,000, but the number that can be visually confirmed is far fewer. Oryx, an osint analysis team in the Netherlands whose estimates are often reasonably consistent with those of state agencies, has images of about 1,000 units. Based on the rate at which equipment is being withdrawn from open-air stockpiles, X analyst Osint suggests the Ukrainians have destroyed perhaps 5,500 large guns. According to a knowledgeable analyst, Russia is expected to run out of cannons by 2025, at which point it will have to rely on rocket artillery, which requires far greater supplies of explosive material.
Over the past year, Ukraine has become much better at destroying Russian artillery (and vice versa). Its detection systems have improved: Allied-supplied counter-battery radars track Russian projectiles to their origin. An abundant supply of small kamikaze drones, launched up to 20 km from the target, can destroy Russian guns. Invaders could protect their artillery by moving it further back from the front lines, or by withdrawing some pieces altogether. But this would hamper their ability to target the Ukrainians. For defenders, this would be a welcome relief.
(Extract from the eprcommunication press review)
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/russia-armi-guerra-ucraina/ on Sun, 31 Mar 2024 05:51:13 +0000.