Covid-19, here are the states most affected. Ispi report
Peru and Belgium lead the ranking of the countries most affected by Covid-19. Italy is sixth. Facts, comparisons, analyzes and scenarios in the Ispi report
The Covid-19 pandemic has changed us and changed the world. Italy at the time of the Coronavirus, according to Istat data, is more impoverished, discouraged and worried. The health emergency has blocked businesses and severely slowed down the world economy.
And the rising numbers of infections suggest a second wave. What awaits us? Certain predictions cannot be made. Here is what it has been, what it may be and what we can and must rely on according to the Ispi report by Matteo Villa.
THE NUMBERS OF THE PANDEMIC
Let's start with some general numbers. In the world, since we began to count them, cases have exceeded 25 million as of 1 September 2020: there are 18 million cured, over six million currently positive and over 855 thousand deaths.
THE MOST AFFECTED COUNTRIES
Which countries are most affected? It is difficult to draw a global picture, reads the ISPI report, since each country experiences a different and ever-changing situation and that the approach to the pandemic has been different between rich and poor nations. In the latter it is impossible to realize what was done in the former.
INDIA AMONG THE COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST INCREASE OF CASES
Instead, it is possible to draw a current picture of what it is. It is India that in the last few rounds records the highest number of new cases per day (over 78 thousand infected in 24 hours on September 1st). The USA and Brazil follow. Peru, Colombia and Argentina are also worrying, where an increase in cases is beginning to be noted. In Europe, France is the most affected nation.
INFECTIONS ON THE BASIS OF POPULATION DENSITY
The ranking, however, changes if we refer to cases in relation to population density. According to the ISPI report, with over 800 infections per million inhabitants, Peru and Belgium lead the ranking of the most affected countries, followed at a distance by Spain (622), United Kingdom (611) and Chile (590). Italy occupies sixth position in this bad ranking, before the United States, Brazil and Mexico.
COVID LOST STRENGTH?
Meanwhile, the rise in the number of infections suggests a return to the pandemic, According to the WHO, however, the virus is finally starting to show signs of slowing down, especially in the American continent.
The number of infections is starting to slow down, even in the US. In Europe, the drop is 0.9%.
THE FORECASTS OF NATURE
On the other hand, the predictions made by the scientific journal Nature are more pessimistic: "Covid-19 is here to stay and the future depends on many unknowns, including whether people develop lasting immunity to the virus, if seasonality affects its spread and – perhaps most important – the choices made by governments and individuals ”, writes Nature, according to what is reported by Ispi. The magazine does not rule out upcoming lockdowns, targeted.
VILLA: THE EPIDEMIC CAN BE CONTROLLED
“Looking at the numbers it would almost seem that this second epidemic wave in the world is more moderate than the first. Many new cases, few deaths. Unfortunately, this is not the case: the reality is that many countries have become better at intercepting cases as they arise, and therefore now find a large number of asymptomatic people, who previously escaped the swab. Lethality appears to remain high, ”commented Matteo Villa, ISPI Research Fellow.
“But there is a positive fact: this wave seems much slower and more gradual than the first. Indication of the fact that, if the rules continue to be respected, the epidemic can be controlled and contained ”, added Villa.
THE HELP OF TECHNOLOGY
In a second future wave, however, we have a certainty: we know the virus and we can use technology. "To tame the spread of SARS Cov-19, concrete help comes from technology", writes Ispi, bringing as virtuous examples South Korea and Taiwan, pioneers of the 'three T' system, that is, tracking, treatment and testing.
The giants of big tech have also moved on this front , from Google to Apple .
DAMAGES TO THE ECONOMY
The pandemic has not only brought about the health emergency. The world economy has also suffered a major backlash. “You have to go back to the Great Depression or the years immediately following World War II to find a comparable collapse,” the report reads. “If the United States experienced the worst economic contraction ever, and officially entered recession in the second half, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Spain also recorded a collapse in GDP. And in the Eurozone, according to the estimates of the European Commission for the end of the year, the average is equal to -8.3% on an annual basis ”.
In this negative scenario comes some positive data from China: in the second quarter, Beijing's economy grew by 3.2% compared to the same period last year.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/la-pandemia-da-covid-19-tra-presente-e-futuro-report-ispi/ on Sun, 06 Sep 2020 05:30:09 +0000.